Jorma Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 NYMEX oil March up $3.36 April down .24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemur Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Recent Gerald Celente interview 2 parts Worse than the Great Depression [flash=425,344]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6s_NW-Bm5A.swf By their deeds ye shall know them... [flash=425,344]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsXphAxPg0I.swf Sounds like Shorty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 stalled at 8 day cycle MA 835.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Worth printing and re-reading carefully, imho:Link Great article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 4shzi, While I agree with your preference for corporate debt in this atmospherewhat I don't understand is that in doing so one is seriously risking their principal are they not in a kind of game of Russian Roulette. Today its anybodies guess who will next be going BK, thats precisely why these bonds are paying such high interest. If it is assumed the Dow is potentially heading for 4,000 and we are in the first throes of a depression that could last 5 to 8 years and as well if its assumed that hyperinflation will eventually kick in making even 8% return on corporate junk not so hot in comparison, why would anyone want to pour money into a corporate debt sinkhole that is also a minefield? Unless your somehow talking about moving in and out of these bonds or ETFS nimbly and with an eye on the macroeconomic situation. I am a neophyte when it comes to the complexities of the bond market but due to foolish bond manager who beleived it never could happen I am bag holding Lehman AAA bonds and waiting for a meager recovery. I don't wish that Hell on anyone and so I am cautious of the entire racket of corporate debt. First and foremost all operations on Wall Street are rackets and without that perspective one can get dangerously overconfident imo. We go to 4,000 and that ETF you referred to will lose substantial value in a very short time. All you points are valid.... Hence, T-bags and FDIC insured CD's are the only thing that provides 100% principal protection. So, if that is your primary objective, then that is where you should be. Nothing wrong with that at all, especially given that inflation (what inflation?) is not eating away at your returns. But if I can get a bond for AT&T, Qwest or Verizon yielding 18% annually (price 54 cents on the dollar) with a maturity of 2038 because some hedge fund had to panic sell -- I'll take that risk. And, in fact, I did just that back in October during the panic -- just one example. Could I get defaulted on, sure. But I am willing to put capital at risk. I stay very very broadly diversified with bonds in roughly 150 different companies on average....so my risk adjusted return is moderate. The thing with bonds as opposed to equity, [1] your getting paid to wait, and if you're not getting paid that by definition means your common stock counterpart is zeroed out FOREVER, [2] you may have to wait to get your new debt and equity in a restructure, but that beats never getting anything back if you held the common stock. Where it really makes sense is a company in a good cashflow generating business where the stock (for whatever reason) get's knocked from $60 to $3 and the divi gets cut to zero. The company never goes BK, but the stock sits at $1-4 range for 15 years. Meanwhile you get the interest on your bonds plus all your money back to reinvest elsewhere at maturity. OK, that's enough "BOND CHAT" for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 They've painted a helluva reverse hunchback over the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rounder Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 White House warns against "unreasonable expectations" regarding housing plan - Reuters WOW.... tempering expectations, thats a first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Member what I said yesiddy. I tink it still holds. 5 day cycle up phase should this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 White House warns against "unreasonable expectations" regarding housing plan - Reuters WOW.... tempering expectations, thats a first More than likely due in part to CNBS bullhorning "HOmoaner Bailout" yesterday and completely misrepresenting any and all available information.....which, by the way, was none. Shades of the Gas-bag is now infecting all of CNBS.....mis-report first, ask questions leter, "Breaking News, CNBS has learned _______________________" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Did they make their afternoon boner announcement too early today?? White House says Obama will announce plan to stem home foreclosures on Wednesday - Reuters Jives w/ my idea for a top on Tuesday. Doc's reverse hunchback almost perfectly targets the trendline connecting the Jan. highs with K-Wave's bat signal (highs from Feb. 9) -- the trendline is around 860. 850ish is the 61.8 retrace. So that's my bet for the next top: 850-860. I would post a chart, but for some reason my chart service and/or my computer and/or gremlins won't let me print/save the image. So I have instead drawn this lovely ANCII chart for visual reference on the longer time-frames: -* --* ---* ----* -----* ------*------* -*-----*----* ----*---*---* -------*--*-* ------------* Well, that doesn't work as well -- I had drawn a nice arrow using asterixes, but the board collapsed everything. Doesn't work as well with the dashes in there, but that's as good as it gets. My lame attempt at humor has been foiled, yet again!, by Alan Greenspan's hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 White House says Obama will announce plan to stem home foreclosures on Wednesday - Reuters Isn't this how this White House rolled out the recent TARP II "plan"? And it was serially postponed. Watch Geithner give another presentation about the contours of the principles to govern a foreclosure plan whose details remain to be clarified... next Friday after it's been postponed on back-to-back days.... :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 OK thats outta da way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juggler Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Did they make their afternoon boner announcement too early today?? White House says Obama will announce plan to stem home foreclosures on Wednesday - Reuters New administration ... takes a while to get the timing correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 shport lines at 826. 3 day cycle MA 828.41. 5 day 827.50. If they drop through all that, should be a major giveback after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Silver held 5 min support and now taking another crack at the wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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