aussiebear Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/ http://www.kitco.com http://www.kitconet.com/webcharts/base_metals.html Energy futures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Tentatively optimistic action so far. All Ords +0.1% with little movement in the sectors. Gold is leading, +0.9% followed by Healthcare and Energy, both +0.7%. REITS is down the most, -1.5%, Utilities next, -1% and Miners -0.8%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Hi, Aussie I brought over these posts, one by TJ and one by me, from MTM. This is part of a long, interesting, continuing discusiion on Geither's proposed solution today to the housing and bank crises, by having the U.S. government subsidize mortgages of people who are underwater in their mortgage and financially unable to afford to stay in their house. The govt gets paid back any money made from sale of the house that is beyond the amount of the re-written mortgage. Incidentally, Doc originally agreed with Geithner's solution, as I still do, but he decided later that the cost of it, and the necessity of selling reams of Trashury bonds to finance it, would make things worse, rather than better. I think that it costs too much too. I just can't think of a better solution to housing oversupply and snowballing decline. I think the program's cost is a problem. But I think government spending, which brought us out of the Great Depression, could do it again, and that we could reduce the deficit later, after we're out of the crisis. It was only 8 years ago, at the end of the Clinton administration, that we last had a government surplus, and we could have one again in the future, after these things are ironed out. ------------------------------------------------ QUOTE (Trader Joe @ Feb 12 2009, 05:16 PM) Not true....that's the common "party line" to keep the sheeple in the dark and scared.....uh, like you! (See: World Collapse After Lehman Failure, oh, wait, there wasn't one!!!) Incidentally, I have written derivative contracts, written ISDA agreements and traded derivatives from the corporate side, so I am very very very familiar with CPR and unwinds. In fact, CNBS just had one of the former CFO's (I think) from Merrill Lynch on that says he has a solution....for the 4 1/2 seconds that guy was allowed to talk before Krudlow kept interupting him, it sounded pretty good.... The problem, as he states, is $1.9 trillion in mortgages and related derivatives. Step [1] Peal off the mortgages, about $948 billion, give them a GSE guarantee and sell them, newly packaged into the market (I agree with this) prices based on current and expected payment history. There will be a cost, in the billions, but not too bad considering the proposals thus far Step [2] Collapse all the derivatives (the $1.0 trillion balance) that are written against these underlying securities, cost here too but the guy couldn't explain cause Krudlow wouldn't shut up....but in essense the banks would have to take the hit Step [3] Outlaw MBS derivatives going forward Granted he was just talking about MBS, but that is where the problem is......the same construct holds for all derivative markets (i.e., credit cards, auto loans, corporate debt, etc) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitall: Why didn't Krudlow let him talk? Krudlow should be fired. Let's all write to the station and demand that they bring this guy back on and let him talk! Obama should hire the guy as part of his economic team immediately. I had never heard of any solution that might be better than, or even as good as, the one Geithner proposes. But this one sounds pretty good. The GSE guarantee would keep the MBS collapse from happening, with its associated large bank collapses, and collapses of tons of other companies due to their being counter-parties to various transactions with the large banks. I know-- they let Lehman collapse and nothing happened. But I'll bet they let Lehman collapse because the counter-party risk, while perhaps large, was not judged to be large enough to bring down the entire economic system with Lehman. And that may be why they have NOT let Bank of America and various other mega-banks collapse. However, the former Merrill guy's solution doesn't take care of the oversupply of houses and the possibility of increasing supply due to people who are under water on their mortgages walking away from them. If that happened, housing prices would dive far below what is reasonable, based on buidling costs etc. Perhaps that former Merrill guy's plan could be used for the banks, and combined with Geithner's solution for the housing market. This former Merill guy's plan does go to show that there are heroes in every social class and in every profession, even Pig Men. This guy thought up a solution that would be fair to Joe6P and the country as a whole. He wasn't just looking to have himself and his bank buddies feed at the public trough. Hurray for the hero Wall Street Man! I can't call him a Pig Man really, although he is in that profession, because he is really a "Problem-solving Fair Solution Man". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2009/02/12/s...sional-edition/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 My take on the current "solution" aka "arrangement". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Australian Senate Passes A$42 Billion Economic Stimulus Package Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Australia?s Senate has approved at a second vote a A$42 billion ($28 billion) stimulus package aimed at ensuring the economy doesn?t enter its first recession in 18 years. The government was forced to alter its original package to gain support from the upper house, where it needed seven opposition or minor party votes to ensure passage. The government reduced one-off grants to low-income earners and boosted money to the Murray-Darling river system to win support from independent Senator Nick Xenophon. ------------------- New Zealand Retail Spending, Housing Slump Prolongs Recession Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand?s retail spending fell for a fourth straight quarter, the most prolonged decline on record, and house sales plunged to a 20-year low, adding to signs the nation?s recession is deepening. Retail sales, adjusted for inflation, dropped 0.6 percent from the third quarter, when they fell 0.9 percent, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. House sales slumped 28.5 percent in January from a year earlier to the lowest level since at least 1989, the Real Estate Institute said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Rio Tinto Shares Drop, Default Risk Jumps After Chinalco Deal Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group shares fell and debt default risk jumped after the world?s third-largest mining company agreed to a $19.5 billion investment by its largest shareholder Aluminum Corp. of China. ?We don?t like this deal,? Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty anal cysts led by Neil Goodwill said in a report dated yesterday. ?Rio is still in a weak position in terms of its balance sheet and would be unable to easily participate in expansions, acquisitions or increase dividend payments for some time.? The deal gives Aluminum Corp., known as Chinalco, stakes in some of Rio?s biggest mines, sparking a rally in shares of the Chinese company?s listed unit. London-based Rio struck the deal with the state-owned company to reduce $38.9 billion of debt incurred when it bought Alcan Inc. before rejecting a $66 billion hostile takeover bid from BHP Billiton Ltd. ?The board painted themselves into a corner to do this deal just to show the Alcan deal wasn?t a turkey,? said Hugh Dive, who helps manage the equivalent of about $3 billion at Investors Mutual Ltd. ?We haven?t worked out exactly how we?ll vote but I?ve got a pretty good idea it won?t be in a positive fashion.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Australian Senate Passes A$42 Billion Economic Stimulus Package Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Australia?s Senate has approved at a second vote a A$42 billion ($28 billion) stimulus package aimed at ensuring the economy doesn?t enter its first recession in 18 years. The government was forced to alter its original package to gain support from the upper house, where it needed seven opposition or minor party votes to ensure passage. The government reduced one-off grants to low-income earners and boosted money to the Murray-Darling river system to win support from independent Senator Nick Xenophon. If you think the US stimulus package is a big disaster, consider that the Australian package is a bigger proportion of GDP. We are wasting 9% of GDP. The US is only wasting 6% of GDP. The long term aussie economy is now doomed. 'The total spending represents almost 9 percent of the economy. Japan?s 10 trillion yen ($111 billion) economic package is worth about 2 percent of its economy and the U.S.?s $819 billion stimulus is equivalent to around 6 percent of the world?s biggest economy.' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rationalize Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Wow wow wow .. & Bwahaha. Time to crush the aussie merkit. Notice to all derivatives advisers attached. - The clearing house has panicked. - Acceptable collateral has been reviewed and restricted. - Welcome to Margin Call Monday, Feb 16th 2009. http://news.kaplan.edu.au/LiveAssets/image...eralChanges.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 All Ords continued to climb, finishing the day +1.1%. Financials moved into the lead +2.4% followed by Consumer Discretionary +1.8% and Consumer Staples +1.4%. There were a couple of reds, REITS -1.6% and Utilities -0.9%. Not much action on the big miners: BHP +0.7% and RIO -1.9%. Golds fiddled around: Newcrest +2%, Newmont +0.8% and LIhir -1.8%. Good gains for a couple of the oils: Woodside +2.3% and Caltex +4.6%. Santos went the other way, -0.9%. Over in Asia, China +3.2%, Honkers +2.2%, India +1.6% and Nikkers +1%. Over to UK/Europe: Footsie DAX CAC 40 http://finance.yahoo.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 13, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Emirates NBD Fourth-Quarter Profit Dives 99% as Provisions Jump Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Emirates NBD PJSC, the United Arab Emirates? biggest bank by assets, said fourth-quarter profit dived 99 percent as provisions for loan defaults and investment losses jumped amid the global financial crisis. Lending and investment banking in Gulf Arab states are declining as oil prices and stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are hit by the worst global recession since the 1930s. The U.A.E. is bracing for a real-estate slowdown after a five-year boom as banks cut back on mortgage loans and speculators flee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Might be a bit early to say the Australian economy is forked, Rationalize. It looks like the most important stimulus package for the Australian economy is already working.............. “The economy is bottoming," Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 I've looked at a bunch of charts tonight, and as of right now about the ONLY bullish things I can find are the whipsaw we experienced on the last hour Thursday, and the fact that NQ didn't make new lows. But see, here' the thing: the Dow DID make new lows for the move. So I guess we have to ask ourselves: who's the real leader here, and who's the dumb, in-bred cousin? Is tech really gonna lead us out of the darkness, to a brave New Economy -- in a world where energy companies and financials are floundering? And, didn't we already TRY the brave New Economy paradigm? I don't seem to remember it working too well. So... Wouldn't be surprised one bit to see this market rise slightly in the morning today, then sell off a little before ralling up to a new high @850 -- maybe reaching it late today, maybe early Tuesday. Suck in a few more bulls... get the last of the bears to cover in anticipation of OpEx... and then spit 'em all out with a rapid drop next week. I maybe see the potential to get as high as about 890 if all the bulls' stars align. But if we stay below 900, I think the trend on all timelines is still down. Not that I'm predicting anything mind you. This is just what looks most likely to me at the moment. All subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swordfish Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 *Ukraine: you can't withdraw money from bank account. Minister of Finance, resigns. from polish to english by google http://translate.google.pl/translate?prev=...l=en&swap=1 Now what I'm affraid: fu**en Putin and Miedwiediew will give money to Tymoszenko and it will be Russia Land again. I hate that s*it. BTW, Poland And Ukraine suppose to host Euro 2012 (European soccer cup)...... GDP 8:50 Germany: GDP Q4 -2.1% q/q, -1.6% y/y 8:50 France GDP Q4 -1.2% q/q 9:00 Czech Q4 1% y/y 9:00 Hungary Q4 -1% q/q, -2% y/y German, French Economies Shrink by Most in 20 Years as Recession Deepens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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