byhiselo Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 A. Newman thinks we sold out last week and upside potential is huge: http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/NEWMAN.html i'm still open to one more low around 7000 DOW/700 SPX in december, but ms. market don't give a damn what i'm open to many looking to buy a pullback to 840-860, so that area is now pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peek Paper Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 I'm glad we're getting this bounce. Makes me proud to be a bear again. I want The Box of Twelve on CNBS to be all smiles and bear-trashing again. The better-than-expected Xmas season will be the MO. Looking at 2nd week in December to short again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 MY PREDICTION Of a November rally proved correct although it really was a late November rally. Should continue to x mas. This rally was kicked off by the Citi bail out Just as the september october dump was set of by letting Lehman fail. I think the main moves in the stock market will be sign posted by major credit market events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 IF THE BEAR IS STILL PROWLING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 Some people unfortunately have to shop at Dollar Tree DLTR. I guess I'm one of the unfortunate ones because I think Mr. Z's beef jerky for a buck, even at 4oz. per bag and Brazilian beef still beats eating a once formerly double cheese at McDonalds that now only sports 1 piece of cheese and most likely has less beef patty. It's now called the McDouble. Fast food is not getting cheaper. Not even Amazon with a coupon code can beat Dollar tree for a buck per bag. http://www.amazon.com/b?node=677542011&tag=buxrcom-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quanta Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 Thanksgivingday thought by G Harrison. I look at you all see the love there thats sleeping While my guitar gently weeps I look at the floor and I see it needs sweeping Still my guitar gently weeps I dont know why nobody told you how to unfold your love I dont know how someone controlled you They bought and sold you. I look at the world and I notice its turning While my guitar gently weeps With every mistake we must surely be learning Still my guitar gently weeps I dont know how you were diverted You were perverted too I dont know how you were inverted No one alerted you. I look at you all see the love there thats sleeping While my guitar gently weeps Look at you all . . . Still my guitar gently weeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FableNacy Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 IF THE BEAR IS STILL PROWLING... sqrt(0.618)=0.786 sqrt(0.500)=0.707 (0.786+0.618)/2 = 0.702==0.707 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 Wow. There is almost nobody here. Thanksgiving is more intense this year than recent years in my experience. Perhaps Doc remembers past traffic numbs. Swenlin has a statement about the current situation. I've gone to a bullish bias but not that strongly. This gives me food for caution. Be Wary of New Buy Signalsby Carl Swenlin November 21, 2008 The Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) is on a sell signal for nearly all of the indexes and sectors tracked in the Decision Point Alert Daily Report, but when a rally begins, the T/TM will begin generating buy signals pretty quickly. Nevertheless, because of the extreme market activity we are experiencing, I want to urge those who follow and act on these mechanical signals to apply a little discretionary analysis to new buy signals that emerge. A new buy signal will be generated when the two thrust components of the T/TM cross up through their moving averages. The PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) responds more quickly to price movement, and is usually the first component to experience the upside crossover. The PBI (Percent Buy Index) moves more slowly and is designed to keep the T/TM from reacting too quickly. Note on the chart below how it prevented a buy signal at the beginning of November, a most fortunate circumstance. ----- Bottom Line: Extreme selling pressures are causing our T/TM to become more sensitive to rallies than we would like. Beware of new buy signals that are not driven by strong price moves. Swenlin Chart Spotlite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 I'm expecting S&P 666 on Inaugeration Day, followed by a sharp false hope bounce back to 799 one laSSt time before a slow grind down below 200 by early 2010. Not so fast. It took Japan ~13 (?) years to bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 Nerf workers riot at Chinese toy factory The latest violent protest to rock China's export machine was still simmering Wednesday at the maSSive plant, which makes Nerf toys for the U.S. company Hasbro Inc. Basic aSSsembly line jobs at the factory pay $112 a month.......work long hours in factories and live in crowded dormitory rooms. THIS IS THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES PRIVATE SECTOR FORMER MIDDLE CLASS, COMING SOON TO A DEPRESSION NEAR YOU. I don't see why. Depression doesn't mean the living standards go that low. If the consumption flops, say, 20% - it pretty much boils down to cook at home, carpool and live together with parents. Comparing with China its no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 IF THE BEAR IS STILL PROWLING... I have this as one possibility here, I actually posted it last weekend I think. Although, the next leg down would be iii. If we close over 905 before making new lows, we can pretty much toss this one. I am undecided right now -- we should see downside starting immediately either way, but it could just be wave 2 of a new bull-leg, or wave b of a larger correction. If we retrace below the .618 level of the upmove (796), I would strongly favor the scenario shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted November 28, 2008 Report Share Posted November 28, 2008 I have this as one possibility here, I actually posted it last weekend I think. Although, the next leg down would be iii. If we close over 905 before making new lows, we can pretty much toss this one. I am undecided right now -- we should see downside starting immediately either way, but it could just be wave 2 of a new bull-leg, or wave b of a larger correction. If we retrace below the .618 level of the upmove (796), I would strongly favor the scenario shown. 2 should of been a 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
russwinter Posted November 29, 2008 Report Share Posted November 29, 2008 I cover this stuff in depth every day. Until the data is in, we just won't know how the Fed will fund this. I'd prefer to wait and see what the data says than to automatically presume that these purchases will be funded by outright monetization. Virtually everyone is saying that this means that the Fed is monetizing or will monetize. I suspect that the Fed may have no choice but to do so, but if they have more excess reserves coming in to their deposit accounts, they may not need to. There are too many players in the sandbox front running this to wait long for "evidence". Various trades will happen fast. I am going to use the smell taste instead, as these are just extremely challenging times. The inflation trade has been screwed, blued and tattooed anyway, there is far less risk in it. More forensics on "deleveraging". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted November 29, 2008 Report Share Posted November 29, 2008 More forensics on "deleveraging". GE is dumping a portfolio of Canberra properties. The buyers include the guys who sold the properties to GE in the first place :ph34r: Of course the capitalisation rates have blown out. GE was obviosly funding this property by using the commercial paper market and AAA rating. They cant use that carry trade anymore. It was a pure leverage play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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