roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...t?obj=ID2393449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...393449&cmd=show[s128363142]&disp=O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 I wouldn't bet the farm on an IT low being in at this point for markets either. The charts are so extreme at this point there is danger in acting on any indicators based on their recent history. Personally, I'm using maily 1 min and weekly chart to gage timing and support levels. A multi-generational shift is well underway and as Doc said earlier, lots of traders and fortunes are being wiped out right now. Risk management and striking while the iron is hot are my guiding mottos at this point. My longer-term port holdings have been cut down to 50% (mostly long-dated puts) and the rest is trading capital I try to risk and guard at the right times. The bottom is a long ways away. Everyone these days is seeking the right meme to work off of, but in truth, I don't think there is a meme of a time remotely as dislocated as our markets are today, so who knows how bad it could get. I'm charting and listening to the most savvy traders here to make the most of this catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 You are right about not being able to find a meme from the past that is guaranteed to work now. We're in Black Swan City now-- the once in a lifetime-- or once in many generations-- economic conditions that leave most everyone clueless about how to proceed. We all try to find the golden slipper that fits this economy-- but even the literally golden slippers have been losing value lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 some nice 1929 charts from alphatrends.net: http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/search?q=1929+dow 701461[/snapback] Thanks. An interesting site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Credit Market Update Actually started to loosen up the past two days though cash is at its wides and individual cds and index cds are just off their wides. Trading flow has been picking up with the declines in funding rates and libor so that is a good thing for now. We have taken off our underweight in credit the past few weeks through the utilization of the new issue market (CAT, UNP, IBM) but have started selling positions the last few days using any liqudity provided in the secondary markets to lighten up on bonds that have some hair for whatever reason (off the run/smaller deals etc.). Interesting to note that we have not utilized a primary dealer to transact but for new issues....using smaller broker dealer counterparties in customer bid/offer wanted situations for the most part and not pushing stuff off the cliff into down bids. Patience is a bond investors greatest virtue. Liquidity even in the Treasury market is very limited and we are having a tough time transacting in coupons or strips - disconcerting and speaks volumes about the lack of balance sheets out there. On a good note - our firm just got ranked in the top decile for our core bond product among all investment managers over the 1/3/5 year time period. Thank God I knew I was never smart enough to try and understand the garbage that was produced in the last five years. 701462[/snapback] Congratulation and glad to see you back. I learned a long time ago when some guy is trying to sell you something you don't understand. Forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 could be very mistaken but it seems there is plenty of time to choose a bottom so to speak, just looking at CSCO as an indication of what many of these stocks could look like for years after this sell off. Kinda like Japan! 701467[/snapback] And no dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 ..."bonds that for whatever reason have some hair on them..." ...that can't be as bad as some of my schlocks that have grown some strange form of fungus. I've been pondering bonds lately, and one of the things that comes to mind is that if, for the last 5 years, bonds of various kinds and durations have some form of derivative protection available ie insurance or whatever, would this not have created an artificially low yield...because insurance was available and not that expensive. If this insurance were no longer available, would not the yield on whatever bond have to rise to attract buyers willing to take the risk of holding nekked? Or, would the idea of holding a bond nekked be so repulsive that nobody would buy such a bond in the first place? What did bond buyers do ten years ago...just run naked? 701474[/snapback] Yes, Bankruptcy was something that happened to a very small number and ratings were considered a lot more accurate. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 If so, if 3=1, that'd bring us to around 810.? If 3=1.618*1, that'd be 700. 701449[/snapback] 700 would also be the approximate measured implication of a neckline break on the potential head and shoulders (or triangle) forming on the SPX 30-minute chart (going back to 10/10) -- and 700+/- also represents theoretical "support" on the declining trend channel formed by the recent highs and the 839 low. So I'm inclined to view 700 as the likely target for wave 3 of 5. (The potential H/S neckline was lower when I was targeting the 600's, so a 200 point move ain't quite what it used to be.) So now that virtually everyone is sufficiently bearish, we probably rally hard next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 YOUR WORLD IN CHARTS: MCCAIN AND THE STOCK MARKET EDITION. Arjun over at The State of the Union takes a look at the relationship between McCain's poll numbers and the stock market: Tracks pretty well, right? "McCain?s floor hovers around forty percent," writes Arjun, "accounting for the divergence at the end, but regardless, the correlation between the two data sets is a robust 0.77." It's a useful reminder that elections are heavily structural. McCain's problems are, in large part, the product of actual world events that don't favor Republicans. They're not the result of some awesome new Obama ads, or Palin, or even McCain's erratic and odd campaign style. It's a bad time to be an aging economic conservative with a long record of deregulation and close ties to the outgoing administration. Link 701494[/snapback] So all the repubicans have to do to win this election is prop up the market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 It's 1907 now. scroll down the page 701479[/snapback] The main outcome of the 07 bank panic was the creation of the Fed. That did come a long 5 years later. The Dow action and the 100 year thing is interesting, but probably not relevant. A Wiki history of the 1907 bank panic. Never the last word but a good simple primer if you like history and have a bit of time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Some crisis humor. Most not so good but sure to grow. What's the capital of Iceland? About $20 http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginal...-about-the.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 A lot of good people have already been destroyed. And while there will be "a bottom" of sorts somewhere along the line here, it will not be THE BOTTOM. Not even close. THE BOTTOM will come when everybody has stopped bottom fishing, and no one gives a damn about the market any more. The market went down for 2 1/2 years after the 1929 crash. At the bottom in 1932 no one was trading any more. Just a handful of survivors were quietly accumulating stocks for the future. 701446[/snapback] DOW 1,000 ! I might downgrade my price objective if gold keeps going down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Hey TE, good to see you. That's a pretty bullish stance you're taking... 701450[/snapback] 550 spx is a bullish stance. Good to be seen Phat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 I saw Edward Altman give a presentation yesterday at the CFA-SF yesterday. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~ealtman/ I will try to post his 36 page handout later this weekend. He presents a slew of information that places the extreme distress seen in high yield credit markets into some historical context. In it, he also feeds recent spread data for high yield back into models for future default rates, and the results, obviously, are not good - lotsa defaulting forecast by 'em. He excoriated the ratings agencies, and batted around the possibility of 9% unemployment when all is said & done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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