roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Stupid money are out, stupid With the biggest market meltdown since 1930s, investors are pulling out. Private investors pulled $23 bln from the mutual funds in September after $10 bln inflow in August. In the first week of October they pulled astonishing $43 bln and $14 bln in the second week. Last week I warned that the market is about to bottom. Now let see the charts. http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/b...are-out-stupid/ What do you think about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 I guess this will tell us when things get back to "normal" Weekly and linear chart for less drama: Back in March the market actually bottomed when IRX started to tank. Different times... And the even more important market rates: "The cost of borrowing dollars in London fell, capping the first weekly decline since July, after central banks around the world pumped unprecedented amounts of cash into money markets and governments backed loans. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three- month loans in dollars dropped for a fifth day, sliding 8 basis points to 4.42 percent, the British Bankers' Association said. It declined 40 basis points this week. The overnight rate for dollars slid 27 basis points to 1.67 percent, the lowest level since September 2004. Asian rates also fell. " http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...xk6Q&refer=news 701428[/snapback] There are visible improvements in all credit markets today, not just Libor. Tons of improvements across the board. Name your favorite credit instrument and see how better it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 IF this plays out and the charts say its a strong possiblilty, i'll be buying DOW 7100 and equivalent DDM, SSO, UWM with both hands near the close on Wednesday...a pukefest like we haven't seen in a long time again, i'm hoping it doesn't happen as a lot of good people will be hurt financially and are going throw in the towel at the bottom and will not be in position to buy back in hoping for the best... 701432[/snapback] $SPX chart is the trailing indicator. I would not pay too much attention to it. Look for internals and across the markets for clues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 My charts have been so accurate since 10/9 that it scares me. Per my posts, I called the "bottom" on Fri., nailed the top on Tues. almost to the dollar, nailed the drop and retrace Wed. thru today (Phat will vouch for me here). That frightens me, because my charts are still telling me we make a new SPX low in the 600s. The only thing I'm not sure of is if we go down to low-mid 700s, then back up to 1000, THEN down for the final IT bottom. Well, I should say: I'm still not sure of any of it. But that's my best guess. *Disclaimer: No one should listen to me or attempt to trade based on my opinion. 701437[/snapback] I am very confident to see 1,100 before 600. This bear market will probably take another 18 months. Give it some time, it can't fall that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 A lot of good people have already been destroyed. And while there will be "a bottom" of sorts somewhere along the line here, it will not be THE BOTTOM. Not even close. THE BOTTOM will come when everybody has stopped bottom fishing, and no one gives a damn about the market any more. The market went down for 2 1/2 years after the 1929 crash. At the bottom in 1932 no one was trading any more. Just a handful of survivors were quietly accumulating stocks for the future. 701446[/snapback] I'm sure that we are more than 12 months away from THE bottom. At least 11 :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 could be very mistaken but it seems there is plenty of time to choose a bottom so to speak, just looking at CSCO as an indication of what many of these stocks could look like for years after this sell off. Kinda like Japan! 701467[/snapback] If inflation is below zero and it pays at least 1% dividend - why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 broker-dealers are giving a very nice clue, as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 YOUR WORLD IN CHARTS: MCCAIN AND THE STOCK MARKET EDITION. Arjun over at The State of the Union takes a look at the relationship between McCain's poll numbers and the stock market: Tracks pretty well, right? "McCain’s floor hovers around forty percent," writes Arjun, "accounting for the divergence at the end, but regardless, the correlation between the two data sets is a robust 0.77." It's a useful reminder that elections are heavily structural. McCain's problems are, in large part, the product of actual world events that don't favor Republicans. They're not the result of some awesome new Obama ads, or Palin, or even McCain's erratic and odd campaign style. It's a bad time to be an aging economic conservative with a long record of deregulation and close ties to the outgoing administration. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 bullish % index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Broke below envelope bigtime. Last time it happened in late January, never since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 McClellan jumped today. Reminds mid-March, but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 trin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byhiselo Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 15 year trading range for DOW, 6400 to 12000? http://tuttleassetmanagement.com/media/med...021508-1150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...t?obj=ID2393449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byhiselo Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 per the 100 year DOW chart above, perhaps a nasty fake out below the 2002 lows and then back to upper part of the trading range (ala 1974)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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