DrStool Posted October 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 I would just like to point out that now that everyone is on board with the 1929 thing, it's guaranteed that it won't work anymore. The other thing I notice is that a whole lot of charty types are looking for THE BOTTOM. My guess is that we go through the lows next week and don't stop for a while, save for a little upside shakeout. Just a guess. You'll find the real data, analysis, conclusions and estimates in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition The 1929 thing. Man are those people late on board that. I first pointed it out the similarities to Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition subscribers on September 29, 18 days ago. Be prepared! Stay ahead of the herd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Credit Market Update Actually started to loosen up the past two days though cash is at its wides and individual cds and index cds are just off their wides. Trading flow has been picking up with the declines in funding rates and libor so that is a good thing for now. We have taken off our underweight in credit the past few weeks through the utilization of the new issue market (CAT, UNP, IBM) but have started selling positions the last few days using any liqudity provided in the secondary markets to lighten up on bonds that have some hair for whatever reason (off the run/smaller deals etc.). Interesting to note that we have not utilized a primary dealer to transact but for new issues....using smaller broker dealer counterparties in customer bid/offer wanted situations for the most part and not pushing stuff off the cliff into down bids. Patience is a bond investors greatest virtue. Liquidity even in the Treasury market is very limited and we are having a tough time transacting in coupons or strips - disconcerting and speaks volumes about the lack of balance sheets out there. On a good note - our firm just got ranked in the top decile for our core bond product among all investment managers over the 1/3/5 year time period. Thank God I knew I was never smart enough to try and understand the garbage that was produced in the last five years. 701462[/snapback] Whoa! Nicely done and in this enviro. I saw a hedge fund manager from euroland on bloombox today who was invigorating. In response to a "what do ya think" question from Pimm Fox he said something like, "Can I be honest?" "I could talk about X trading at 2 times revenues, but in a crash, it's not about the return on capital, it's about the return Of capital. Bonds are the only place to be now, not in stocks." Claimed to be up over the benchmark 20% and said he was the no. 1 rated manager in Europe. Good to see you and don't be such a stranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 I would just like to point out that now that everyone is on board with the 1929 thing, it's guaranteed that it won't work anymore. The other thing I notice is that a whole lot of charty types are looking for THE BOTTOM. My guess is that we go through the lows next week and don't stop for a while, save for a little upside shakeout. Just a guess. You'll find the real data, analysis, conclusions and estimates in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition The 1929 thing. Man are those people late on board that. I first pointed it out the similarities to Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition subscribers on September 29, 18 days ago. Be prepared! Stay ahead of the herd! 701468[/snapback] Yeah, go figure. Those charty types are such ... wait a minute. Ain't you a charty type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 A lot of good people have already been destroyed. And while there will be "a bottom" of sorts somewhere along the line here, it will not be THE BOTTOM. Not even close. THE BOTTOM will come when everybody has stopped bottom fishing, and no one gives a damn about the market any more. The market went down for 2 1/2 years after the 1929 crash. At the bottom in 1932 no one was trading any more. Just a handful of survivors were quietly accumulating stocks for the future. 701446[/snapback] I am a believer in history repeating.....however to hang a hat on an exact repeat of the past is foolish (not sayin' you are doin' that, just sayin')....could be a lot worse OR it might not be.......I am investing here and there and will be paid to wait it out....still saving the "wad wrapped with the broccoli rubber band" for new lows How to Create a Gangster Bankroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Couple other charts: Cash monthly March Futures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 ..."bonds that for whatever reason have some hair on them..." ...that can't be as bad as some of my schlocks that have grown some strange form of fungus. I've been pondering bonds lately, and one of the things that comes to mind is that if, for the last 5 years, bonds of various kinds and durations have some form of derivative protection available ie insurance or whatever, would this not have created an artificially low yield...because insurance was available and not that expensive. If this insurance were no longer available, would not the yield on whatever bond have to rise to attract buyers willing to take the risk of holding nekked? Or, would the idea of holding a bond nekked be so repulsive that nobody would buy such a bond in the first place? What did bond buyers do ten years ago...just run naked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 btw Seamus, I'm with Doc. If bonds are the place to be, and knowing that it is a market so large as to dwarf the stock carnivals, if you can spare a little trickle down of your ongoing education and give some hints on how that world works to the bulk of us here who're functionally illiterate in that language, it might save a life over the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aLmRPHKZLYmY 701431[/snapback] I know you can't wait to read Lahde's personal letter instead of news about it. http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/daily...odbye-and-f-you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Has there ever been a long term multi year stock market low that was barely even retested and then that test came 4 days later? Has there ever been a major long term bottom of the nipple variety? Methinks not. Just saying it's a trading market for now. Seems to me the chances of being a hero lay on the short side for now. If this is near a major price bottom all history says we'll get a chance in time to get aboard on the long side down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 I would just like to point out that now that everyone is on board with the 1929 thing, it's guaranteed that it won't work anymore. The other thing I notice is that a whole lot of charty types are looking for THE BOTTOM. My guess is that we go through the lows next week and don't stop for a while, save for a little upside shakeout. Just a guess. You'll find the real data, analysis, conclusions and estimates in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition The 1929 thing. Man are those people late on board that. I first pointed it out the similarities to Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition subscribers on September 29, 18 days ago. Be prepared! Stay ahead of the herd! 701468[/snapback] It's 1907 now. Oct. 15 "We have argued that the next string of GDP reports will finally reflect the recessionary conditions that Americans are already feeling. However in every battle there are signs of hope. Here is a very interesting chart published by Barclays Capital this morning. They compare the current equity market movements to that of the ?Panic of 1907.? "The similarities are striking. In 1907, the last leg lower in the Dow was the 37% decline that lasted from the second quarter to the fourth quarter. So far this year we have only seen a 34% decline from the August high of 11867 to the October low of 7882. Another 3 percent decline would bring the Dow down to 7475. The price action in the Dow in 1907 suggests that there could be one final push lower in equities before a long term bottom and when a rally does happen, it could be as much as 20 percent." Kathy Lien http://www.kathylien.com/site/ scroll down the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 7475 or minimum objective of 7371 at http://www.trainingfortraders.com/ We could just roll the panic of 1907 and 1929 into one, and call it something different. Stool Clash on the loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snorkels4 Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 buffett buying!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! woo hoo in case youve not seen this http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm This morning we will address two issues: Warren Buffett, and "Is the market trying to establish a short term bottom? The first is the media hype on what Warren Buffett said about "buying stocks now". Here are the excerpts of what the media is saying and posting: "Warren Buffett said he's buying U.S. stocks and, if prices stay attractive, his personal investments, as distinct from his stake in Berkshire Hathaway Inc., will soon be wholly in American equities." ... "Exaggerated concern about the long-term prosperity of the many sound U.S. companies is foolish, and most will probably be setting profit records in years to come, Buffett said." What very few media outlets are including in his statements is the following: "Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now." He also stated that he had little idea about the short term market direction. #1: Don't get all excited by the media hype surrounding Buffett's comments. His time frame for being right is extremely long ... 5, 10, or 20 years from now. That is not a time frame that most investors can deal with. Twenty years from now, Buffett and I will most likely not be alive ... maybe I will, but I'd be 81 years old then. #2: The Bear Market is not over ... we are in the beginning stages of a recession that will go on for months, if not for a year or more. The stock market typically starts its early turn around 3 to 4 months before the market finally bottoms out ... we are not there yet. Now, let's move to today's chart and analyses ... This is part of a chart that is posted daily on our paid subscriber site ... there are two additional indicators on our regular daily chart that are not shown. This chart shows our MACD, a Relative Strength of 9 & 30, and the action of trend of the NYSE declining Volume ... all compared to the NYSE Index. Let's discuss each indicator individually .. First ... our MACD-C indicator. Note the red line and blue bars. When the red line is below the blue bars, the market has downside weakness. When the red line is above the blue bars, the market has upside strength. There is one important caveat to this ... and that is what is happening to the 30 C-RSI (Relative Strength). If the blue 30 RSI line is BELOW the zero line, then it offsets the upside condition of when the red C-MACD line is higher than the blue bars. In these instances, you normally get a sideways trading range in the market. Take a minute to observe the chart, and you will see that this is the reality. Next, take a look at the NYSE Declining Volume ... I inverted its trending data so that it would track with the movement of the stock market. When the NYSE Down Volume is below zero and trending lower, more stocks are being sold in terms of aggregate dollar volume. That has a direct correlation to the distribution occurring in the market. Positive NYSE Down Volume correlates with selling pressure coming off of the market. Currently, the C-MACD has not shown a red line crossing over the blue bars condition, so we haven't reached any safe upside (short term) yet in spite of Buffett exciting many investors about his announcement of "its time to buy". On the short term, the Inverted NYSE Declining Volume is trending up. This means that the aggregate dollar volume of stocks being sold off is continuing to decrease. This opens up the possibility that the market is now trying to hold a bottom with enough investors having satisfied their selling urges. This creates the possibility for a short term upside bias in the market in the coming days or next week. *** Feel free to share this page with others by using the "Send this Page to a Friend" link below. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ or this http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/daily...odbye-and-f-you Oct 17 2008 12:01PM EDT Hedge Fund Manager: Goodbye and F---- You From the Scorched Earth Files: Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse. Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank counterparties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy. Enjoy. Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye. Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, "What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it." I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America. There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are. I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life. So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don't worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer's company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job. I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established. On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man's interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft's near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken. Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won't see it included in BP's, "Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions," television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM's similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let's stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient. With that I say good-bye and good luck. All the best, Andrew Lahde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seamus Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Speak et al - would love to be giving it on the boards every day but frankly I am committed to our business for, no kidding, 16 hours a day every day. Seems Friday nights are a lot easier for me to post with some sort of recap. Yes, the manager biz is that involving - I was at the state capitol in Harrisburg PA the other day for a couple hours of meetings. Likely they will give us another couple hundred million to manage for them. Next week I go to Charlotte to present in front of a nat gas co for their pension mandate - 80 million. Last week was in Raleigh for a finals totaling 60 million. And - I have a two year old! We are a boutique investment manager with a couple billion under management and growing like weeds. And love to give it to the big guns who we are increasingly coming up against...booyah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted October 18, 2008 Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 [snip]would bring the Dow down to 7475. [snip] funny....just now looking round there, but by a different view... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2008 Doc - I'm still learning! Something in particular? 701466[/snapback] oh, you could start with the thing about the wide stances and hair on the palms. It's just.... well... the images, you know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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