TURK Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 I But nothing has led to an intuitive flash that we will have a hyperinflation. Seems to me we already had it. 701684[/snapback] Thanks for your thoughts. WRT inflation, if we have already had it, this commod cycle would be way out of the ordinary because of the brevity of the upside. I think that with all of this cash floating around that the Fed will blow another bubble. Loose money at cheap rates usually squirts out somewhere....commodes, carry trade the other way (like Japan in reverse), you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 Doc, weren't you the one who turned like 9K into something like 750K trading options for a firm? I remember the entire story but can't remember if it was, indeed, you. 701690[/snapback] It wasn't him. Doc hates options and can't trade his own account worth a lick. Great cycle guy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 Alt-A & subprime resets are non-event. They often reset to pretty much same rate. Option ARM resets will be deadly. 701651[/snapback] Wrong, many people in alt-a loans are also no doc that lied about their incomes. The resets will kill them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 It wasn't him. Doc hates options and can't trade his own account worth a lick.? Great cycle guy though. 701693[/snapback] I think you might be wrong. I think that may be why he hates options! He had worked at an options house. I think after he made that run, things didn't go so well. Sooner or later, options will bite you. I don't trade them much any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 You're absolutely right. In fact, one state already tried this (NJ, I think?) by placing a moratorium on foreclosures, and it played out exactly as you envision. New loans vanished. I suspect this may just be one of the steps that ultimately leads to mortgages issued directly from the government, though. 701674[/snapback] Welcome to the USSA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 not genetic... it is a choice..people often chose not to see what they do not want to see... my father told stories about liberating camps in ww2... he said all the towns people claimed to the point of tears that they did not know what was happening just down the road, he said by any commen sense standard they would have had to know, but they turned a blind eye... sad but true. 701664[/snapback] Here's an interesting explanation. I've seen this referenced to explain religious beliefs, but it works just as well with any mistaken belief set: Why Bad Beliefs Don't Die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snorkels4 Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 For those who are unaware, I was a commercial RE appraiser and RE market anal cyst for 15 years. But before that I worked as a stock broker for 5 years, including 4 in the institutional end, briefly as a trader with an options house, but mostly in institutional sales. Before that, I had an intense interest in the markets since I was a kid. I have followed the markets closely pretty much every day since the late 1960s. We need to disabuse ourselves of this silly notion that pigmen benefit from bear markets. The vast majority do not. Pigmen firms generally only fail in bear markets. As I have said many times, they are the ones now on the floor bleeding out. And believe me, they ain't that bright. They are bigger herd runners than the public at large. Hubris tends to blind people to reality and Wall Streeters have more than enough hubris to go around. Remember, the bigger they come, the harder they fall. This market has been an unmitigated disaster of the highest order for the Wall Street dealer community. It will take a generation or more for a complete recovery. 701687[/snapback] buffet comes to mind for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 FIRST DEFLATION THEN INFLATION The credit collapse leads to deflation which leads to more credit collapse. The only way out is for the government to inflate. But they will only do this as a last resort. We are not there yet. But we will get there eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snorkels4 Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 The thing that terrifies me more is that all this worthless debt is now being replaced and/or backstopped with US Government paper. So we now have close to a trillion in Treasuries backed by... NOTHING,, no highways, no tanks and warships, no educated babies who will grow up to become taxpayers, and little chance of recovery upon maturity or sale of the asset. It will have to be paid off by future government revenue streams that will be inadequate to meet debt service. We cannot pay this bill, and it will only get worse as the economy weakens. Every rescue package, every stimulus plan, every government program that adds to the Federal Government's debt load will only make the situation worse and worse and worse. --------------------------------------- just for the fun of it, do greenbacks become worthless in a default with all of that bad debt going to money heaven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 F-U- tures got back to unch,then started to fall back a bit.Let's see if we get some more magic about 3am.That's usually when futures fairy shows up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 Thanks for your thoughts.WRT inflation, if we have already had it, this commod cycle would be way out of the ordinary because of the brevity of the upside. I think that with all of this cash floating around that the Fed will blow another bubble. Loose money at cheap rates usually squirts out somewhere....commodes, carry trade the other way (like Japan in reverse), you name it. 701692[/snapback] interesting point. Would seem that with the financial sector downsizing the bubble would appear outside the financial sector and also be more compressed. Oh well if you make a sighting please let us know!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 Anyone know how many of the Option ARMs are currently neg-am (and potentially at risk of hitting the cap and resetting early)? Does this data exist? 701619[/snapback] Here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 Doc, weren't you the one who turned like 9K into something like 750K trading options for a firm? I remember the entire story but can't remember if it was, indeed, you. 701690[/snapback] My partner, using a system I developed. They ran 10k to over 900k in a couple months in the US trading championship in the SP futures. Lost it all when they ignored a whipsaw signal. Every penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 More in the UFB category 18 October 2008 Six Wall Street Banks to Distribute 10% of the $700 Bn Rescue as Pay and Bonuses for This Year's Performance Shameless greed seems to be a virtue and a way of life on Wall Street The Guardian Wall Street banks in $70bn staff payout Pay and bonus deals equivalent to 10% of US government bail-out package By Simon Bowers Saturday October 18 2008 Financial workers at Wall Street's top banks are to receive pay deals worth more than $70bn (?40bn), a substantial proportion of which is expected to be paid in discretionary bonuses, for their work so far this year - despite plunging the global financial system into its worst crisis since the 1929 stock market crash, the Guardian has learned. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...-10-of-700.html 701602[/snapback] Well, in many cases the salary on the Wall Street is nominal, like $100-$150k. The rest is bonus. It's part of the pay. You can't live for $150k in New York, that is simply impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted October 20, 2008 Report Share Posted October 20, 2008 My partner, using a system I developed. They ran 10k to over 900k in a couple months in the US trading championship in the SP futures. Lost it all when they ignored a whipsaw signal. Every penny. 701706[/snapback] Wow, Doc, couldn't you make a mint selling your system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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