K Wave Rider Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 During the Great Depression, I think the dow traded down to something like 45 (I think in 1933). Does anyone know how far back in time prior to 1929 one must go to see a level on the Dow of 45? Was it in the early-20s? Before World War I? Back to the Panic of '07? 699412[/snapback] Dow closed 41.2 Jul 11, 1932, low 40.60 according to tradestation data... Panic of 1907 for part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 Here is an excerpt from Howard Ruff in Hyperinflationary Depression: ?The limits to the unlimited abuse of the debt standard are particularly evident in the GAAP-based financial statements of the U.S. government, which show the actual federal deficit at $4.0-plus trillion for 2007 alone, with total federal obligations standing at $62.6 trillion. With no ability to honor these obligations, the government effectively is bankrupt.? What will the government do to meet its obligations? What about social security and medifraud? If income was taxed at 100% total obligations would still not be met! There is only one thing left for the fascists to do and that is to start printing money, alot of money. This will result in great inflation causing the price of gold to rise substantially. Wanna see my stash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 699358[/snapback] this chart is one of the reasons that i think gold is going alot higher. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 if the USA monetizes its debt, that would destroy the wealth of the rich. if the USA monetizes its debt, that would destroy its "credit" worth. if the USA settles its debt, that would increase the wealth of the richest. prepare for massive tax-increases, prepare to work! 699364[/snapback] the usa owes money. lots of money. tax receipts are going to be considerably less. the only way the usa can pay this money back is to inflate. make the money worth less. dharma ps a dollar during the depression bought alot more than it does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 Dow closed 41.2 Jul 11, 1932, low 40.60 according to tradestation data... Panic of 1907 for part 2. 699416[/snapback] that would mean we would see the 1974 lows again??? My goodness! have to admit even in my wildest dreams i cant imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 Anyone ever trade gold or silver futures? 699381[/snapback] i was a professional money manager for futures trading. i traded futures from 79-87. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 ps a dollar during the depression bought alot more than it does today. 699419[/snapback] You can thank the Fed for that.... Look at this chart of CPI pre and post Fed..... CPI was damn near the same in early 1900's as it was in 1774... Fed raping of purchasing power But we all like inflation right? We all feel so much better when our house price and stocks go up artificially over time, while most folks assets are slowly being transferred away from them in real terms.... The con of the ages..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 A lot has been focused on the historical premise that gold, over time, as compared to other asset classes is a horrible investment. With the exception of hoarding dollars in a soup can, gold has been a horrible investment since 1933. I am not saying gold is an investment, but a store of wealth, rather. My major point in this entire saga is that the current financial system is collapsing and that, in the end, gold will still be standing. The wealth you have right now is an illusion that is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 that would mean we would see the 1974 lows again??? My goodness!? have to admit even in my wildest dreams i cant imagine that. 699420[/snapback] You have to remember, we have much different inflation scenario than we had in '32, when the Fed was just getting warmed up. So while we might even test the '82 inflation adjusted low, we will be nowhere near that in nominal terms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 K Wave, Well said! Everyone likes inflation, especially those that benefit from it in the beginning. Inflation has an end, though, a terrible end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 You have to remember, we have much different inflation scenario than we had in '32, when the Fed was just getting warmed up. So while we might even test the '82 inflation adjusted low, we will be nowhere near that in nominal terms..... 699424[/snapback] Unless of course.....HyperTiger is right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 I know we have been tracking the 1929 charts fairly closely.But I can't help to think it will be different for the rest of the the ride.Most on chat boards are assuming a 20% immediate bounce from here..... Things are far different now days,......derivatives,day traders,international participation in our markets,and the sheer amount of stock,preferred stock,etf's,cef's, mutual funds,401K's,and pension funds is just staggering.Not to mention all the hedge funds and anything else I missed. It seems to me it will take alot longer to unwind the positions this time from all the forced selling. I guess we will find out this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psyche doctor Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 I know we have been tracking the 1929 charts fairly closely.But I can't help to think it will be different for the rest of the the ride.Most on chat boards are assuming a 20% immediate bounce from here..... Things are far different now days,......derivatives,day traders,international participation in our markets,and the sheer amount of stock,preferred stock,etf's,cef's, mutual funds,401K's,and pension funds is just staggering.Not to mention all the hedge funds and anything else I missed. It seems to me it will take alot longer to unwind the positions this time from all the forced selling. I guess we will find out this week 699427[/snapback] Actually I agree with you...it may take much longer, especially since the NY Comp chart seems to have the same fractal on a weekly chart that the Dow did on a daily chart in '29. Are we crashing in greater degree? That could take 12-15 years instead of 3? But you can bet there will be big ass rallies on the way down.... Here's a food for thought fractal comparison... Dow Bubble weekly in the 20-30's compared to NYA Monthly today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted October 12, 2008 Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 Actually I agree with you...it may take much longer, especially since the NY Comp chart seems to have the same fractal on a weekly chart that the Dow did on a daily chart in '29. Are we crashing in greater degree? That could take 12-15 years instead of 3? But you can bet there will be big ass rallies on the way down.... Here's a food for thought fractal comparison... Dow Bubble weekly in the 20-30's compared to NYA Monthly today.... 699430[/snapback] My best Guess for the coming week is for monday and tuesday down,THEN reverse hard for options expiration. One way or the other,there will be some huge moves next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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