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Repeat Sept 30 Thread Title BWAHAHAHAHAHA!


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When I try to open the new PM link in the left column, it asks for file to save rather than opening, and then I actually get Update from 10/2/08 in the saved file... :blink:

 

if I edit the link I get today's file, but still as save to rather than open, but maybe that's my bowser gone ass tray?! :huh:  :lol:

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oops. Had the date wrong. now fixed. The save as thing, I don't know.

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The 61.8% retracement of the 5-yr. rally that began in October of 2002 is 1077 on the SPX.  Seems like a plausible place for bounce.  :unsure:

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yep, a whole lotta folks looking at 1080 level...am betting we overshoot it a bit...just to scare all the bottom pickers real good before we finally get a decent bounce.....

 

Is it possible we tag the weekly 900? Could happen quickly in a panic.....and we are in the air gap where just that kind of thing tends to happen.....

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That was a hypothetical centered moving average projection IF certain things happen. I hope I was clear about that in the podcast.

 

I don't think of centered moving average projections as predictions. There's sometimes a little judgment and experience involved in the forward projection accuracy but at other times it becomes pretty clear where the lines are pointing. Sure, at this stage it's hypothetical, but not really bold. If the conditions evolve over the next few weeks as I discussed than that's what the projection would be.

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Wait--I was only referring to the "10/8/2008" in the link description.

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China able to push domestic growth: S&P

 

In recent separate reports on the three countries, S&P said China will steer its economic policy toward supporting growth, despite some anticipated hurdles, while Japan and South Korea both face political stalemates, high oil and food prices, decelerating growth, among other issues. ....

 

Impact of global financial chaos on China limited

 

"We feel China's financial system and its banks are, to the chaos developed in the US and other parts of the world, relatively shielded from those problems," said senior economist Louis Kuijs at the World Bank Beijing Office.

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from your link:

 

"However, he expected an impact on China's banks coming via the country's real economy, as exports, investment and plans of companies would be affected by the troubled world economy and in turn increase pressure on bad loans."

 

No S**ht, an export based economy doesn't have a strong short term future given consumer debt levels in the Western World.

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Many will brand me naive for my viewpoint, but the common man and economies worldwide are in for a world of pain no matter what action is taken. The idea that bailing out institutions that are wholly responsible for their own predicament is good for the rest of us seems pure propaganda to me.

 

If the banks were left to suffer the consequences of their own actions, and reckless hedgies/investors to suffer the appropriate fallout, then pain would be felt by all parties in direct proportion to their blame/ foolishness/ recklessness.

 

The bankers for a change would be worst affected, "investors" next, and although the man on main street will no doubt be affected, this will be because of the inevitable economic fallout of the years of ridiculous credit excess, not because some banks have been allowed to go belly up.

 

The forces of capitalism will go to work and the strong and more conservative banks will step in to take over from the reckless ones.

 

The sun will continue to rise in the East.

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from your link:

 

"However, he expected an impact on China's banks coming via the country's real economy, as exports, investment and plans of companies would be affected by the troubled world economy and in turn increase pressure on bad loans."

 

No S**ht, an export based economy doesn't have a strong short term future given consumer debt levels in the Western World.

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The situation is changed. Export is no longer a major contributor to GDP, Investment and consumer sales now contribute to 75% of the economy. Infact, export is still growing despite of the current situation.

 

China think tank forecasts Q3 GDP growth at 10.2%

 

China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 percent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released on Friday by the State Information Center, a government think tank.

 

Can emerging economies continue 'dream growth'?

 

Can the emerging economies, including China, maintain their pep and lead the growth for the world at large amid exacerbated risks of a global economic downturn? This has become a hot topic for the participants of the 2008 Summer Davos forum, which will conclude on Sunday afternoon in the north China metropolis of Tianjin.

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Panicked buyers absorbed $143 billion of new Treasury supply and rolled over another $70 billion

without so much as a hiccup this week. The Treasury now hands this cash over to the Fed which then

lends it to distressed financial institutions who will then? you guessed it? buy more Treasuries. How

this will help the system recover is something that someone much more intelligent than I am will have

to explain.

 

They are waiting for opportunity. The logic tells that now is the time for FDIC to start the massive shutdown of hundreds of financial institutions, throwing the meat to PD's and bones to the new $700b program

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The situation is changed. Export is no longer a major contributor to GDP, Investment  and consumer sales now contribute to 75% of the economy. Infact, export is still growing despite of the current situation.

 

China think tank forecasts Q3 GDP growth at 10.2%

 

China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 percent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released on Friday by the State Information Center, a government think tank.

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They will change to negative GDP before anyone could imagine.

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