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IDS World Markets Fri 3rd October 08


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S&P 500 daily

 

looking at the downtrendchannels one sees how the downmove accelerates. If that 1106 low goes this thing really could crash. Daily RSI (14) is at 38, so there is even if we look at overbought/Dover Sole indicators LOTS OF ROOM to fall.

 

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Noticed M2 was up "slghtly" this week...

 

+$165.5 B......bit above average me thinks

 

M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in

amounts of less than $100,000), less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in

retail money market mutual funds, less IRA and Keogh balances at money market mutual funds. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing

savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money funds, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to

seasonally adjusted M1.

 

 

 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

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S&P 500 monthly long term

 

this is my take on the long term S&P 500 discussion. We not draw fibos from the 1974 bottom, the bottom of the last big bear market? I think this is absolutely valid. You see that it broke two uptrendlines and in theory (if we just follow Edwards & McGee for example) then price will now search for the next lower trendline and thats the one around 550. Blue are lin fibos and black are log fibos. We see that also a move to 450 is possible, that would mean that we go to levels we traded in 1994. After we broke these levels to the upside the bull market accelerated, so why should we not go to that break out level again???

 

First there will be a MAJOR ariund 1000, there we have the monthly tunnel, the monthly SMA 200 and the lin 38 fibo from the 1974 low to 2007 high, so thats three important things, wont break at the first test.

 

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to get a road map for these times, i went thru the 2001-2002 SPX charts to find a set of candles homologous to this week's. there aren't any.

 

what impresses me about the current chart:

1) the slope of decline seems to be getting steeper.

2) the trendline underbelly of the last year is now broken.

 

unless we bounce hard, methinks the cowz are in for some serious pain.

Well, here's the best I can do.

 

If now is analogous to May 02 (fainter chart, right scale), we get a meager bounce - maybe bailout driven - then things really pick up to the downside.

 

An analogous bottom would be in late Nov 08, which would line up perfectly with the Bradley bottom in early Dec (assuming the market is frontrunning the Bradley, as often happens when it's 'working').

 

Or, who knows. I don't.

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Thanks Alceringa and PrtzlLogic for your input...

 

Al, I don't think I have your patience to try different brands and combinations. I suspect the beta blocker dropped my blood pressure down too far and as I wasn't hypertensive to begin with that may have contributed to the depression. Not only that but I was also prescribed an ACE inhibitor several weeks later and I spent a couple of days with dizziness and vertigo. Fortunately I had already dropped the beta blocker. I mean my blood pressure taken at the hospital before the medications was 110/64, why would they put me on those medications? It appears to me there's a standard set of meds they put every heart attack patient on, regardless of individual readings. And no mention by the cardiologist that the extreme dose of Lipitor he's prescribed is going to suppress my liver's production of CoQ10 which affects muscles (of which the heart is one). To say I'm extremely pissed off with the medical fraternity would be an understatement. Thank God for the net...

 

PrtzlLogic, I will pursue your suggestions, thanks. I'm also going to get a homocysteine level blood test done and see if that's elevated.

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Well for me, it's about quality not quantity and I'm used to feeling 99.9% fantastic.  The beta blocker made me depressed and gave me deafening tinnitus and the statin drug caused heart arrhythmia that drove me nuts.  No way am I putting up with that.  The heart attack was a walk in the park by comparison. 

 

According to my research there's no guarantees that taking either of those drugs will save me from another heart attack. I am looking at alternative approaches including possible deficiencies I may have like coenzymeQ10 and Vitamin B12.  What's the point of being alive and miserable?  None, in my opinion.. :mellow:

695528[/snapback]

 

I have had arrhythmia with atrial fibrillation. The doc put me on warfarin and atenolol, and I was still having them. Did some in depth medical research (Google :D ) and found out that the symptoms could be related to low potassium and dehydration. So I started eating a banana every day and upped my water intake from 1 or 2 glasses a day to at least 4 and haven't had an attack of atrial fib since.

 

to get a road map for these times, i went thru the 2001-2002 SPX charts to find a set of candles homologous to this week's. there aren't any.

 

what impresses me about the current chart:

1) the slope of decline seems to be getting steeper.

2) the trendline underbelly of the last year is now broken.

 

unless we bounce hard, methinks the cowz are in for some serious pain.

sc_2.png

sc.pngsc_1.png

695532[/snapback]

 

I think you have to look at 87, and 1969-74 to find similar patterns.

 

In addition to CoQ10, you should look into L-Carnitine.  Cayenne pepper also has some miraculous heart healing properties (you can buy this in supplement form) -- scientists have kept heart muscle alive (and actually growing) for years by feeding it nothing else but Cayenne.  Garlic of course is the old standby and you should definitely add a good garlic supplement to your diet.  Vitamin E, Alpha Lipolic Acid, and Hawthorne are all worth a look too.

 

Check on Amazon for a book called "L-Carnitine and the Heart"

 

Please note that I'm not giving you any specific medical advice.  But after my dad had his second heart attack, I did months of research on natural cures.  The things I've listed are all backed by very promising research, with very little or no side-effects.

695538[/snapback]

 

 

Pretzl- do you still have those great Mad Magazine covers you did back in 2001? Hope you do. They were classic. I can't find them in my files.

 

Noticed M2 was up "slghtly" this week...

 

+$165.5 B......bit above average me thinks

 

M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in

    amounts of less than $100,000), less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in

    retail money market mutual funds, less IRA and Keogh balances at money market mutual funds.  Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing

    savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money funds, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to

    seasonally adjusted M1.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

695542[/snapback]

 

The governments money supply numbers are pure fiction. The longer I see the numbers holding at these levels the more incredulous I am. Completely bogus and misleading. There's been massive credit destruction and the Ms haven't budged. It's a joke.

 

Meanhwhile, my instincts were bad yesterday in doubling my short bet before the close. Looks like the market will open strong. After that I don't know. The 3 day cycle MA on the qqqq is at 37.35. 5 day at 37.86. 3 and 5 day cycle indicators have large positive divergences versus Monday's low, so there's some potential for a turn here.

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Dollar rallying against the Euro on the jobs report.  How does a bad job report become bullish for the dollar?

695557[/snapback]

 

Obviously it's not. I still think this is being driven by the catastrophic worldwide shortage of dollars.

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