Charmin Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 Last month's WHODATHUNK with 100 dollar moves in gold sure left an impact. There is one pattern that I picked up on presented by Bill Mclaren when he was instructing on the 1180 SPX level low. He was saying that the if the recent low in 1180 was broken, and then if it was to retrace back and overtake that swing low that it showed stopping action to the downside even if the index fell somewhat further. The comparison of this appears in the GLD chart I was looking at and the 77.98 swing low. The GLD chart made a lower low and then reversed quickly to overtake that swing low and made a higher swing high. The example pattern is posted here http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/a...rope/Page1.html GLD http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1222826134.png Sideways consolidation for ABX showing near term relative strength with GLD http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1222825548.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 H&S completed in early September for ABX. I've seen how explosive a stock can be when it overtakes the neckline. It's currently flowing right on top of it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaotic Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 BIG down coming again IMVHO.. Inability to hold up over 900 failed.. 650 next downside target.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 BIG down coming again IMVHO.. Inability to hold up over 900 failed.. 650 next downside target.. 694515[/snapback] Can't hold 900 doesn't mean it will breakdown. Typical bullish action when price slams against resistance. It's flagging right now....we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 How do we come to the conclusion for $650? We either take off here or else we're deluded like the folks who think the bailout is going to save their retirement funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 observation: the spot market used to reflect the price of lets say gold. and based on spot you could buy gold coins for 2-3% over spot. now dealers are paying 3% over spot and the public pays 6%over spot if there is material available. it is reminding me more and more of the old ussr where there was an official price, but there was nothing available @that price. goods were available on the black market for considerably above the official price. the price where you can actually buy things is the market, and the paper market is reflecting the actual price of gold less and less. spot gold this minute is 880. can i buy coins @3% above that, i think not. the paper comex market is going to become less and less significant, just as in the old ussr you could not buy food staples @the official price. there is a big difference between the paper gold market and the actual gold market. and as attempts are made to curtail inflation by using price controls eg, @the official price there will be little to poor quality available @that price. while the real market fetches larger premiums, and i am not just referring to the metals here. things are changing rapidly as more and more control is exerted on the markets. in the weimar, wealthy people moved out to the farm areas and traded farmers jewelry and gold for food. farmers would not sell for deutsch marks! any way. things are changing rapidly and history of past situations is a guide. the govt getting into the mortgage and insurance biz are definitely signs. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 i have been saying it seems like for weeks, 900 is natural resistance as it is a round # and it happens to be the .618retracement of the high to the low we made. we got to the .618 in literally 7trading days off the lows. that is very fast. consolidation is the order of the day. as i am madness says above the market is making a bull flag. some patience is needed here. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 we must consider the best/worse case scenarios and have contigencies. i've already shown, graphically, what it is i'm watching and don't want to see breakdown. i've made my 'bet' and am willing to take the consequences of a failure in my analysis. i have failed many many times and it's the critical thinking of my own (and others) mistakes and being able to adapt that has led me to succeed at this stage of my life (having started "with nothing" .. poor country trash). having said that, kaotic, frontrunning a move down is, at this stage, not in my playbook. your "big picture" analysis (and, viewing $1300 or $666 gold as "next" IS looking at the short-term big picture) changes day to day. this is emotional guess-analysis, from which nothing can be learned .. you can't grow personally, professinally, nor provide us with anything from which we can make our own analysis on. what's the purpose of daily changing long-term forecasts. are you bipolar? no offense intended, i have a relative who suffers from it. what are you really thinking? please share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 this look bearish? of course i won't want this launch pad to breakdown. but i take a stand. yes, i may lose money - it wouldn't be the first time. this is how it works. who knows, i may just make some coin - wouldn't be the first time, either. i feel like mark wahlberg in the movie i watched last night, "the happening". he's standing in a den talking to a potted tree .. later, he realizes it's just plastic and remarks on it very matter of fact like .. and comments how he's still talking to the plastic tree. oh well, the lonely life of a gold bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 dharma: very insightful. i have joked about this before but you go a step further and link the past with this coming reality. thank you. anyone have the story of lehman brothers and the failure to deliver of physical natural gas, for one? here's a link and snippet. http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/business/...s_supplier.html "Main Street, an affiliate of the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia, lost a $709 million, 30-year gas supply contract. The contract was with a subsidiary of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank which collapsed last week. Main Street now has to find new gas to replace the low-priced supplies that Lehman was supposed to deliver in Georgia and Florida." think about this one example. now magnify it .. depending on how much you want to think about it, it can get quite .. quite scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 gdx did not follow hui/xau down this am it looks to me like xau/hui have finally bottomed in wave 2 train is leaving, all aboard dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 any thoughts on the relaxing of the mark-to-market rule. where these garbage assets are to be valued based on the individual companies cash flow? (that is just hilarious). very quietly, a whole new era of papering over assets has been initiated. this ensures our continued slow march up to glory. key word .. slow. we will be butchered, again. they can paper over the world, but at some point we demand physical delivery!! they have thought all of this through very well, and are always one step ahead of the herd. they play a good game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 observation:.......in the weimar, wealthy people moved out to the farm areas and traded farmers jewelry and gold for food. farmers would not sell for deutsch marks! any way. things are changing rapidly and history of past situations is a guide...... dharma 694551[/snapback] "changing rapidly" would be an understatement except some things never change. Nice read from Financialsense.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vitalsigns Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 any thoughts on the relaxing of the mark-to-market rule.? where these garbage assets are to be valued based on the individual companies cash flow?? (that is just hilarious).? very quietly, a whole new era of papering over assets has been initiated.? this ensures our continued slow march up to glory.? key word .. slow.? we will be butchered, again.? they can paper over the world, but at some point we demand physical delivery!!? they have thought all of this through very well, and are always one step ahead of the herd.? they play a good game. 694612[/snapback] AgentSmith , Here's a great article on Mark to Market rule change . Best i've read yet . And follows my thinking .... that hiding the problem only magnifies it in the eyes of the market . The reason we are were we are is not because of Mark to Market but because much of what the banks have hidden in Level III assets which are marked to best guess . This is why the banks are not going to recover any time soon , taking away Mark to Market will only add to the lack of trust on Bank balance sheets and money will continue to leave this sector for others that have more clarity . Regulations like these we definitely need less of .... Anyways the article below is quite insightful http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...-to-market.html Regards VS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 Scratch the head n' shoulders formation in the US$ chart. Now looking for a double top or the building of a larger head and shoulder formation in the coming weeks. With the Treasury's TARP plan passage being the short term cure all, volatility reins supreme (these 100(s) point move are very desensitizing) in all markets like a chicken with its neck wrung, running up and down and all around until it finally drops dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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