Trader Joe Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 whazzabout AIG? think that camel will be able to squeeze thru the eye rack of the needle and become a masturb of the insurance universe once again? 693264[/snapback] The outlook there is pretty foggy right now. It appears that yesterday they finally posted all the terms and conditions w.r.t. the Fed loan in a bunch of SEC 8K's. I am going to wade through them to see if I can get a better handle on what they signed on for. Long term it depends on how badly they have to disembowl the company in order to get it standing upright again, assuming that is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 The outlook there is pretty foggy right now. It appears that yesterday they finally posted all the terms and conditions w.r.t. the Fed loan in a bunch of SEC 8K's. I am going to wade through them to see if I can get a better handle on what they signed on for. Long term it depends on how badly they have to disembowl the company in order to get it standing upright again, assuming that is even possible. 693276[/snapback] They took the loan didn't they Joe? Thus triggering the equity give up? I've seen allusions to that but had before you called out that it hadn't happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 second that. for less than half of a washington, you can deliver an envelope anywhere within the US. Moreover, when I am traveling I can request mail to be placed on hold and I pick them up when I return. The nice postal dude will even come to my apartment to pick up heavy packages for free. the post office is a great example that not all government programs suck. 693275[/snapback] Third that. Had a gold coin stolen in transit- postal carrier thought that it might be one of the new contractors that the post office hired. Apparently, they are making private more functions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peek Paper Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 bizfiz - if you are Gary North, I apologize. If not ... I haven't read such poorly reasoned, erroneously concluded b.s. in a long time. The several talking points that make sense do not support the concept of a Keynsian Bull Market. You've got all the dots connected from A to Z before the placemat's even on the table. I think I'd believe in a Stalin or Pol Pot bull market before I'd believe in a Keynsian one. My 2 c ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Gentlemen, I would like to present to you, the new Masters of the Universe. At some point in the not too distant future shares in all of these companies are going to be the buy of a lifetime. You will be able to buy 'em, put 'em away and just watch them smash through hundred dollar mile markers (on a pre split basis) to the upside. I agree. The only question i ask myself: Could it be, that they have already seen their lows? Citi for example has HUGE pos divs both on daily as well as weekly chart. Not that this has to mean much, but it is at least a warning sign. Citi made its high at 57, low was 12.85, thats a 77% hair cut, thats a little bit more than nothing. If one really wants to hold those bansk for the long term they can all be boight right here right now. Maybe one of them goes bk, but AT LEAST one of them will be a home run. I personally would not touch them right now, cause some of them didnt even see their last bear market lows (2001-2003 timeframe) and i think thats quite weird. We have the biggest financial crisis since WW2 and some banks dont even test their lows from just a few years earlier? Weird. So i think sooner or later they will test them, but for that we would need tto get a complete new "crisis wave" so to say. IF we do get that im not sure. Freddie and Fannie did fall, AIG, WAMU, Lehman, Bear Stearns... thats quite something, we are definitely not in the early stages of that crisis. We are seeing mass lay offs in the financial sector already... The survivors of this crisis will be unimaginable strong, they will have a market power of epic proportions, they will dictate the market. THE winner will be Goldman. Unfortunately the market already has discounted this, like it can be seen on the chart. Therefore the better long term play could be Citi. But Goldman will be a core investment for the future. It will be a must have stock like MSFT is/was or IBM was in the 60s/70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokahay Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 second that.? for less than half of a washington, you can deliver an envelope anywhere within the US.? Moreover, when I am traveling I can request mail to be placed on hold and I pick them up when I return.? The nice postal dude will even come to my apartment to pick up heavy packages for free. the post office is a great example that not all government programs suck. 693275[/snapback] that's true. I sent some stuff express or what ever last week, web confirmation, 100 bucks insurance, 2-3 day 7 bucks, it was there in 2 days. I have never have had a problem. The people are even friendly. UPS is good here as well, I live in the shadow of a nuke plant and i get the same schedule. You can set your clock by when it shows up. FedEx on the other hand is a POS. Site says out for delivery and ther don't even show up sometimes. Comes the next day. Ask WTF, yada yada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 i have to add: when i say that we are definitely not in the early stages of this crisis then i only talk about the financial sector. When we talk about this crisis as a whole then we are maybe not even in the middle of the crisis. Spill over effects into the "real economy" will happen and they will be huge. Mass layoffs in all parts of the economy will start soon. He who thinks that there wont be spill over effects is not only naive, but also an idiot and whatnot. banks in crisis --> credit tighter --> SME's get no credit --> no investments --> no new jobs yes, it is that easy. The world is not that complicated like some academics want us to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agent.5 Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 I fail to see why any US bank will come out as winner. Fishing for a dominant bank after the crisis, I will look at something like HSBC (HBC: NYSE). The chart is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quanta Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Black Hole Accelerating Balance sheets at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and other banks face another drain on their capital as companies tap credit lines. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., General Motors Corp., and International Lease Finance Corp. lead companies drawing on so- called revolving loans obtained before the credit crisis began in July 2007. Banks had more than $1.4 trillion in untapped loan commitments as of a year ago, the most on record, according to the Shared National Credit survey by four U.S. regulators including the Federal Reserve. Corporate treasurers, blocked from accessing capital markets, are turning to the funding as the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sparks concern that other banks may be unable to provide funds. Pressure to find cheaper, longer-term capital is also building as costs rise in the $1.7 trillion short-term debt market. Banks are being forced to come up with the money after swallowing $521 billion of writedowns and losses. ``The commercial paper market is experiencing more dislocation than we have ever seen,'' said Jim Turner, head of debt capital markets at BNP Paribas in New York. ``Some very creditworthy issuers are only able to issue overnight rather than the more typical 30 days or longer, and if you're a corporate treasurer that situation probably makes it hard to sleep.'' ``We were always worried about this,'' Gregory Peters, head of credit strategy at Morgan Stanley, said of borrowers drawing down their credit lines. ``Banks are very much still balance sheet and risk constrained.'' Banks are demanding higher rates to lend to each other on speculation more will fail. Gloomberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 WHODATHUNK! "A severe, hurricane-related gasoline shortage has curtailed trucking from Atlanta to Asheville, N.C., and created a wave of panic buying among motorists." http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/26/news/econo...sion=2008092710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astral mike Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 breaking news : yet another bank bites the dust... Treasury to nationalise B&B bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astral mike Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Leave it to the Democrats to team up with a crook who did more than his fair share to bring this on and the least popular president in history, from the opposition party mind you, to ram through a bill which has the support of maybe 5% of their party and maybe 30% of all citizens. Bad policy meets bad politics in an orgy of self destructive stupidity. 693184[/snapback] http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/cartoon...p/26/bush.panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 clearly the supply of new dollars is increasing faster than the supply of newly-mined gold, so based soley on that premise the price of gold as measured in dollars should rise, despite fluctuations, and do so over the long term, as this situation is likely to continue however even if the above is true, whether buying gold with dollars now will therefore increase your wealth is another question, since after the price of gold in dollars goes up, what can you do? sell it for more dollars than you bought it for....but those dollars are worth less, so maybe all you did was preserve your wealth, not increase it also, there is more to the equation than supply....what about demand? the demand for gold will likely continue to increase as a flight to safety and perhaps then explode in a speculative bubble of its own, so this certainly is another plus for the idea of buying gold here, yet what about the demand for dollars? that seems much harder to determine if trillions of dollars of perceived wealth have been wiped out recently (common/preferred stocks of LEH, FNM, FRE, WM, AIG etc. plus junk bond declines plus mrotgouge-backed insecurities plus houses and conmerical property) then perhaps creating another $700 billion will have no net inflationary impact at all meanwhile, what's to keep other major countries from creating more of their own currencies? if lots of new euros are created at the same rate as new dollars are created, then the exchange rate might not change much at all.....the dollar needn't necessarily go down vs. the euro everything is relative if you have an ounce of gold, what do you really have? an ounce of gold if you have a house, what do you really have? a house if you have a dollar, what do you really have? a dollar what are they worth? the ounce of gold is worth exactly one ounce of gold the house is worth exactly one house the dollar is worth exactly one dollar only when you speculate and start swapping one for another does the excitement begin, and it's all about can I swap my dollars for some gold now, then swap the gold back for more dollars later....can I swap my gold for a house now, then swap the house back for more gold later maybe you can, maybe you can't some will, some won't some will end up with more of whatever they started with, some will end up with less if you're quick and cunning, you can succeed at taking away from your neighbor more than he takes away from you but it's all non-productive, a net zero sum game, because it's all speculation politically, it's a mad scramble to screw your neighbor more than he screws you not that it's all crazy, silly, or insane.....outwitting and out-swindling your neighbor is certainly one way to get ahead in the world, lately the most common way but there is another way produce something the good part of that approach is that everyone can produce something of value, be it a good or service the sad part is that in America today, and in much of the rest of the world, production has taken a back seat to speculation/theft/fraud to a greater extent than ever before in history I can show you SoCal houses on zillow, not just estimates, but real purchase and sale prices, such that from 2001 through 2006 the price of those houses (hundreds of them, in the neighborhood in question, which is not out of the ordinary) went up fairly steadily by $100,000 per year for six years in a row.....from $300,000 to $900,000 so that the "owner" (mortgage debt speculator) earned an income of $100,000 per year for doing nothing but holding onto that speculation these houses are next to office buildings where skilled employees work all day 50 weeks a year to earn the same $100,000 except that they must pay taxes on theirs (state, federal, social security, medicare, insurance, etc.) while often the RE speculators can take their profits tax-free under current laws so skilled employees who spent years studying, with no income, and now work hard every day producing things, are left behind in the competitive economy by people who just speculated on a house this is devastating for the approach of working to produce anything....clearly it's far better to speculate in real estate than to work....thus everyone wants to speculate and nobody wants to work the net effect is vastly less wealth overall, because so many people spend all their time and effort speculating against one another rather that producing anything worse yet, as already mentioned in articles from other posts, malinvestment and overconsumption exaSSurbate the problem easy money from speculation is used to sponsor wasteful efforts even outside the speculative arena, diverting the productive ability even of non-speculators, so they end up producing useless nonsense or worse, foolish things like monster SUV's that consume/destroy more resources, destroying more real wealth a sick culture rewards speculation (see: Wall St.) while a healthy one rewards production the United States is still a free country; people can choose to work or to speculate, or to do both, to a lesser or greater degree in an environment where so many people made so much money speculating, mostly on residential real estate, those who did not and instead chose to work, feel like fools, left in the dust, left out, left behind.....and they are....suckers, for not participating....truly they took a horrific risk by NOT speculating, while their neighbors grew rich around them by choosing the safer course of joining in on the rampant speculation but when it all blows up, the new suckers are the last bagholders, like people with five houses, all bought on margin, some of which they can legally (not morally or ethically, but who cares, because in a culture of speculation such things don't matter) walk away from, some of which they cannot walk away from (ouch) now the speculators want the workers, the chumps, to bail them out....so we have a big political battle to rob from the many and give to the few, with none of the politicians wanting to be blamed for doing so, yet they're all getting theirs, one way or another, so screw the maSSes (again) taken to the extreme, all productive work shall cease...we'll all devote 100% of our time and effort to robbing from one another as we ourselves are robbed from, hoping to come out ahead by being better robbers than our neighbors, or voting into office politicians who will steal more from our neigbors and give it to us than they steal from us and give to them obviously in such a scenerio total net wealth will decline, as consumption continues while nothing is being produced unfortunately that's the direction we're currently headed in.....more people are concerned with speculation/theft/fraud than they are with producing anything....some want to prevent the bailout of Wall St, but support a bailout of underwater failed housing gamblers (particularly if they themselves are underwater failed housing gamblers and not Wall St. executives) while others support a candidate who promises lower taxes (particularly if they are high-income earners who pay a lot of taxes) while others support a candidate who promises a higher social security limit (great! punish those bastards whose salary is higher than mine!) or who promises "free" health care (great for those who currently don't work a job that provides it) or mandatory early child public education (great if you're part of the education biz)......see, it's all about whose ox is getting reamed life in America has become, primarily, a frantic desperate game of screw your neighbor production is not honored or respected we all suffer as a result both financially and emotionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitall Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 Well, whether it's Dems or Repubs or a combo, U know they are going to pass the darn Bailout Bill soon, next week probably, so that government of the banks, by the banks, and for the banks, shall not perish from this earth. Although the people would just as soon it did. I guess we must keep putting our heads together looking for a way to get it to perish, so that an actual democratic republic can begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted September 27, 2008 Report Share Posted September 27, 2008 the Gary North article was very similar to my earlier post... The old 'Windsyrf' think like a criminal approach. The smart bears (of which I am not ) would have made a squillion $$$$$ over recent months and can probably go back to their caves and hibernate for a while. This will allow the bulls to get their election year rally going the next few months. It will only be temporary as the underlying fundamentals are as bad as any time in history. As our Jickiss often says, 'nothing has happened yet'. The sheeple are becoming very worried in OZ,no doubt about that ,but 'nothing has happened yet'. The govt has announced an extra $4billion for smaller mortgage brokers to enable them to compete with the big banks. They are missing the point. House prices are way too expensive. First home buyers need house prices to be around $180k for the average couple to be able to comfortably afford their mortgage payments. You would be hard pressed to find a house under $300k anywhere in OZ. Next week should be more than interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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