My, Aren't We Full of Surprises

[DrStool]

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) ultra long term monthly log chart with log fibo

 

from time to time one has to look at long term charts to keep things in perspective. The sell off was brutal, but it never reached 1996 levels and didnt even reach the 50 fibo, monthly SMA 200 was where sell off stopped. It tested the pink uptrendline 2 times this year and line did hold. If the blue uptrendline gets ever tested again it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

 

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Well, you can use an ultra long term chart of the Nas100 to try and prove a point, but it would be wrong. Probably 95% of the stocks that are in the index today were not in the index 10 years ago, let alone 15 or 20. And 95% of the stocks that were in the index at the beginning of that period aren't in the index today. Most of them probably aren't even in business any more. All of these long term charts give the phony impression that everything is increasing in value over time, when the truth is that over time, most companies disappear.

 

Just curious, Doc.  Looking at your market liquidity chart, is it fair to equate the current level of liquidity with the level in 2005?  Could you interpret this to mean the Fed has now drained 2 years of bubble liquidity from the markets?  If so, then when do we start looking for a bottom in your chart?  Maybe a return to 2004 levels implies Bennie has sucked-up all the liquidity from the bubble?  Is it reasonable to think along these lines?  TIA.

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I think it's reasonable, and other monetary growth rates have been extremely slow lately, but that's seasonal. But I have no clue what the Fed is going to do. I just think it pays to pay attention to what they have been doing, and the relationship between that and stock prices. It's pretty clear that while stocks fluctuate, they don't buck the Fed for too long unless they have a lot of help from other quarters.

 

Let's say the Fed does have reason to start pumping. What does that tell you about underlying economic conditions, and what might you deduce about what the FCBs might be doing under the circumstances?And what about the third and fourth legs of the stool, the Treasury and GSEs?

 

I guess what I am getting it is that yes, the Fed will eventually have to start pumping, but that that isn't necessarily bullish.

[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

 

 

jickiss is back!

 

 

and has been too busy quote un quote to post,

 

plus, the gold market has been a bit annoying as well, which was detected/observed and predicted in some measure by K-wave. good work, indeed, K-wave.

 

da General knows the Score, and it goes like this; to wit, in the USA, Every Member of the House and the Senate and Every Governor of every State or Commonwealth that has been installed into office today was FIRST required to have a "Background" issue or matter or "problem," which was known to the insiders and backers. This is Required if you want to run and be "elected." Why? Easy, if "revealed" to the Public, such revelation would result in Removal from Office.

 

This is how they run the system that is in place. It works. This is the absolute control point: if a boy or gurl in office steps out of line and starts to act Up-it-tee, well a few mins on the phone usually stops any movement too far off the intended track. Thimk!

 

Once you understand this Factor, then you are set Free by the Truth.....

 

your jickiss will try to post charts later today or on Sunday.

 

meanwhile,

 

Hold Fast! in the end, Only the Broads Bears, and the Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners related longs will win Big.

 

If liquidity has been drained, and then if such liquidity is re-injected, mayhaps this can explain a rally in the broads of some modest duration??? But, your jickiss wonders if such an event, if possible, would cause Gold and Silver to also rise?

 

Since da Master will not say, does anybody here know at what price Gold will stop falling? your jickiss would like to think that Friday was the gold low, but the charts do not look right yet.....

 

jickiss!!!!!!!

[fxfox]

Well, you can use an ultra long term chart of the Nas100 to try and prove a point, but it would be wrong.  Probably 95% of the stocks that are in the index today were not in the index 10 years ago, let alone 15 or 20. And 95% of the stocks that were in the index at the beginning of that period aren't in the index today. Most of them probably aren't even in business any more. All of these long term charts give the phony impression that everything is increasing in value over time, when the truth is that over time, most companies disappear.

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you are 100% correct in what you say. I was only referring to the index itself. I analyzed the index, not individual stocks.

[K Wave Rider]

Seems like these 2 stages here are the cream of the crop.  (The abundance stage tends to be material but accompanied by spiritual poverty, so it's not so hot.)   

 

"'From spiritual faith to great courage;

 

"'From courage to liberty;

 

I wonder if there are any countries right now that are in one of these pleasant stages.

 

Also, China seems to have left out the spiritual faith part, as communist systems don't allow that. 

 

That may very well be the typical case there though, K Wave's whole sequence of these stages, with a few exceptions.  Maybe Europe is one exception.  And then the U.S. is far from typical of countries thorughout the ages in most ways-- especially in being a mixture of people from all over the globe, united by a love of freedom, and contributing many wonderful skills and ideas.  I hope that the U.S. will be atypical in yet one more way--by accomplishing campaign finance reform, in order to return to the days of courage and liberty in society and in government.

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I don't think it will come until we have a complete collapse of Western Civilization as we know it due to a huge debt collapse. People have to get real angry with the way things are, before they will actually take actions to change things. Eventually they will wake up one day and realize that more and more government is not the answer. When that light bulb goes off, we may again see those stages....

 

I think Ron Paul surprised a few folks this go round. I think unfortunately he is about a generation early, but he has a clear grasp of why our students of history founders did things the way they did, while virtually no one else in Congress has a clue. The dissatisfaction will continue to grow, until it finally reaches a majority level, and then we may see some great upheaval and real change. In the mean time, I expect the monster to keep getting bigger and bigger and consume everything in it's path.....

 

The money lenders always eventually ruin any society, and we are getting real close to that point in this country, and a lot of the rest of the civilized world for that matter....we all goin' down together on this one.....

 

A quadrillion in derivates...it is simply an incomprehensible number......and it WILL end badly....

[K Wave Rider]

Hold Fast!  in the end, Only the Broads Bears, and the Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners related longs will win Big.

 

If liquidity has been drained, and then if such liquidity is re-injected, mayhaps this can explain a rally in the broads of some modest duration???  But, your jickiss wonders if such an event, if possible, would cause Gold and Silver to also rise?

 

Since da Master will not say, does anybody here know at what price Gold will stop falling?  your jickiss would like to think that Friday was the gold low, but the charts do not look right yet.....

 

jickiss!!!!!!!

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I agree we may be headed for the last great buying opp in Gold for this secular cycle. But it could come from much lower levels....900 is the resistance line now. As long as that holds on any bounce, we headed lower. Still think there is a good chance we tag the weekly 200 on this pullback of the slingshot....

 

If we goin down further, it should be evident within the next few weeks....the Dollar rally does have the look of the real deal.....and may last much longer than just a week or two....

[fxfox]

NDX weekly since the 2002 low

 

in March it tested the 38 fibo, then 200 SMA weekly and the uptrendline. The fibo did hold, the MA too, only the trendline was violated for a short time. Then, in July, it tested that trednline again, this time it did hold. Price was not able to reach the march low and last week we had a very strong upmove. It will test the red downtrendline now and most likely we get some koind of a pullback there at the first test, but once this line is borken, price will go to the upper channel line. I really tried too, but i simply cant find much bearishness on this chart. Sorry.

 

 

closer look

 

see how often the tunnel was tested in last few weeks, then last week the explosion. This is NOT bearish price behaviour.

 

 

 

NDX daily

 

very nice test from above of that pivotline, once it goes above 2000 it will fly.

 

[Drano]

I had posted it here last weekend, but it's nominally attributed to either Alex Tyler or ALEXANDER FRASER TYTLER , a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh in 1787. However, no one can actually verify who wrote it:

  http://www.lorencollins.net/tytler.html

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Interesting article, thanks. That guy sure spent a lot of time researching it.

 

Now, back to my next premise:

 

BRETT FAVRE IS AN ARROGANT SCHMUCK but boy is he a good quarterback.

[MrHanky]

Actually such people of high integrity are there.? But the structure of our lobbyist and political campaign financing system are such that these people rarely, if ever, are able to amass enough campaign funds to get elected.

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I'm not very political,but I can tell you this...

 

In the 10 or so towns I have lived in over my lifetime,The mayors in 5 of them have been arrested and went to jail.Some multiple times with different administrations including atlantic city,asbury park and ocean township nj.

 

 

Just from my personal experience,AT LEAST 80% of the worlds population is not trustworthy,whether they are in politics or not.That is probably why I'm a bear I guess.From friends to coworkers and even to some family members,I have been let down too many times to remember.Narrow minds and lack of morals is all around me.

 

Does not matter what your title is....Cop,congressman,president,or ceo...Their title does not change the fact that they are an @sshole

[DrStool]

you are 100% correct in what you say. I was only referring to the index itself. I analyzed the index, not individual stocks.

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But the index has zero consistency over time, therefore the trend that you think you are observing isn't really there. Ask yourself what would the trend look like if only the original 100 stocks were included. I'd dare say that the line would not be rising to the same degree, that's for sure. Think about what a drag on the index the stocks that went to zero would be.

[K Wave Rider]

NDX weekly since the 2002 low

 

in March it tested the 38 fibo, then 200 SMA weekly and the uptrendline. The fibo did hold, the MA too, only the trendline was violated for a short time. Then, in July, it tested that trednline again, this time it did hold. Price was not able to reach the march low and last week we had a very strong upmove. It will test the red downtrendline now and most likely we get some koind of a pullback there at the first test, but once this line is borken, price will go to the upper channel line. I really tried too, but i simply cant find much bearishness on this chart. Sorry.

 

closer look

 

see how often the tunnel was tested in last few weeks, then last week the explosion. This is NOT bearish price behaviour.

 

NDX daily

 

very nice test from above of that pivotline, once it goes above 2000 it will fly.

 

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Yep, watching that too. One example of a trip bottom break was in June of '74, but that came below the weekly tunnel , not above. A triple bottom on top of multiple layers of support on a weekly chart has to be respected.....

 

But IF IF IF we break it...LOB

[K Wave Rider]

But the index has zero consistency over time, therefore the trend that you think you are observing isn't really there. Ask yourself what would the trend look like if only the original 100 stocks were included. I'd dare say that the line would not be rising to the same degree, that's for sure. Think about what a drag on the index the stocks that went to zero would be.

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Doc, how does the fact that the index has changed have anything at all to do with what is going to happen from here on? Woulda coulda is not appllcable.

 

The fact is they do change the stocks, and if you want to make money, you need to trade with the "reality", however contrived.

 

Charts is Charts, and right now that chart looks more bullish than bearish.

[fxfox]

But the index has zero consistency over time, therefore the trend that you think you are observing isn't really there. Ask yourself what would the trend look like if only the original 100 stocks were included. I'd dare say that the line would not be rising to the same degree, that's for sure. Think about what a drag on the index the stocks that went to zero would be.

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Doc, didnt i say that you are 100% correct? I only analyzed the index itself, maybe some traders can use it when they trade the NDX Fut or so. For me, as a trader - and i guess i speak for other traders too - it is 10000% irrelavant which shit company was an index member in 1988 or whenever. I, and others, trade indeces and other stuff on a short term basis and for that it is sometimes helpfull to look at larger timeframes.

[MrHanky]

How about this chart I found on another bear site....Looks like a potential top to me......

 

 

 

 

 

http://mauibear.maui.net/index.php

[4shzl]

Incredibly good news: oil traders on new meds -- emotional reactions replaced by dispassionately considered factual decisions.

Yes, Georgia is a strategic region, with a key pipeline crossing its territory from Azerbaijan's oil fields farther east to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Earlier this week, oil prices did, in fact, jump on news that this same pipeline had been damaged by fire and would likely require lengthy repairs. But that was a legitimate response to concerns over supplies.  Oil prices fell Friday instead of spiking because there has been a seismic shift in the market away from the hype that pushed oil to $145 a barrel a month ago toward a more sober evaluation of supply and demand.

Famous last words from marketslop: "Geopolitical jitters have lost their clout"

 

Clean and sober at the Nymex (Scout's honor):

http://www.cwrl.utexas.edu/~bump/oxford/mi...s/alcoholic.jpg

[capitall]

Incredibly good news: oil traders on new meds -- emotional reactions replaced by dispassionately considered factual decisions.

Famous last words from marketslop: "Geopolitical jitters have lost their clout"

 

Clean and sober at the Nymex (Scout's honor):

http://www.cwrl.utexas.edu/~bump/oxford/mi...s/alcoholic.jpg

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Oil prices go down before elections, when the govt is well loved by Goldman's Sack and other Wall Street companies. Before the 2006 Congressional election, same thing happened. That time, GS took crude out of some commodity index it has, causing mutual funds that were indexed to it to have to all dump crude at once. I remember reading about it at the time. Don't know how the govt and friends did it this time, but I guarantee you we won't go into the election with gas prices above $4 a gallon, no way. The same political machine that loves to have Alzheimer's presidents or other mentally deficient presidents, is smart enough to know that they don't stand a chance of getting their patsy elected if oil is rising into the election.