joe3pack Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 perhaps we're in a period analogous to feb 2001. a bear can only hope http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p04471169334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 been messing around with the CCI(100). a certain poster on clearstation uses this as a bottom indicator on the daily charts. the deeper below -100, the more solid the bottom (credit sir mixalot). on the SPX daily, the CCI(100) is now about -130. in bear bottoms past, the CCI(100) got as low as -200 (august 2007) and -300 (january 2008). we could bottom out here, but it's more likely that we go for a climactic low in the near future, at which time one should get ready to remove the bear suit for a while. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p26139026104 and the $VIX has yet to give the signal. 669622[/snapback] Interesting, thanks for the edumication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 I honestly thought we'd have a short rally today....Here's why.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 If the fed raises rates it is all over for the banks and the economy. The fed is damned if they do, and damned if they don't. They screwed up for the last time. Uncle Ben should never have lowered rates. Now they will have to sit there and take it while they flap their pie holes endlessly. All the other central banks are raising rates in response to the real inflation. It's going to be a long, hot, summer. Add some smoke for my fellow Bay Area stoolies. 669623[/snapback] I think many of the banks are screwed no matter what the fed does....Many will fail,so they should just jack up the rates before it's too late to save what's left of this country. With real inflation at 15% or so (my conservative estimate).....,If they don't stop these insane price increases on everything I will never be able retire. But at least I won't end up in the street where many will be forced to live the way things are going. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Everywhere everyone is bearish. Put/call was slightly bullish today at around 1.11 I think Bung was just a little early expecting the bounce. How high, and how long -- now THAT's a good question. Oh yeah, and from what starting point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 5 of the 100 components of the Q's were in the green today. Is that a lot? :o :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 What happened to that fartcall guy who was forecasting an imminent massive blastoff to new highs just like 1991? From the quotes I read, he left himself no wiggle room while suggesting that those of us who were steadfastly bearish, like moi, were going to miss one of the biggest moves in history. Looks like he's the one who missed the move. I'm sorry, but this decline was well foreshadowed. Shame on those who were looking the other way. I simply don't understand it when the longer term indicators were so blatantly pointing lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 I don't speak for KW, but as I understand what he has written is that he uses very tight stops, and if HE misses, gets back later on. No stops in the double inverse funds is a good way to get a margin call IMO. 669611[/snapback] You should use the methods that fit you better, knowing about more methods and different ways of applying them is the best way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 One alternative to using those double inverse funds if you want to hold short for a long time, is just to buy very deeply in the money LEAP puts, so that you're not paying for too much premium. It's much cheaper and you know exactly how much you can lose. I switched from buying SRS to buying calls on it. Or of course you could just by puts on IYR directly. Much higher percentage of return when you're right, and you actually don't lose as much as you do with the stock in the short term if you're wrong, as a certain % of premium starts creeping back in as you become less in the money (because it's going against you). If you've gone out far enough in time, the time decay is not going to be very significant in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 perhaps we're in a period analogous to feb 2001. a bear can only hope http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p04471169334 669624[/snapback] Ah, I see where you are going with this... On this chart it happens rarely butt......that doesn't mean it doesn't happen...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 What happened to that fartcall guy who was forecasting an imminent massive blastoff to new highs just like 1991? From the quotes I read, he left himself no wiggle room while suggesting that those of us who were steadfastly bearish, like moi, were going to miss one of the biggest moves in history. Looks like he's the one who missed the move. I'm sorry, but this decline was well foreshadowed. Shame on those who were looking the other way. I simply don't understand it when the longer term indicators were so blatantly pointing lower. 669630[/snapback] um... uh... er..... DOW 200,000 ! ! ! ! Hey Doc, don't you have to go away again tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auntie Septic Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Today was a doozy for da bulls. In the words of Merciless: BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! One question is though is why hasn't the spoozer gotten pummeled to the same degree that the SOW has? There's always tomorrow... Does my heart good to see the stoopid housing bubble funny munny devalue the dollar to an incredible degree and see the chickens come home to roost. Of course, the gubmint thinks there is "low inflation*", but even they will not be able to hide what is just around the corner. I've got one word for da bullz: SELL BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! ================================= *ex-food, ex-fuel. (What a bunch of horsesh!t) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Ah, I see where you are going with this... ? On this chart it happens rarely butt......that doesn't mean it doesn't happen...... 669633[/snapback] if march 2001 could happen in july 2008, i'd be rather happy. edit: on the SPX chart, i mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted June 27, 2008 Report Share Posted June 27, 2008 OK, here is a close up of what happened in 2001... around February. I think if we go down even a little more on a closing basis we may be in the same situation as 2001... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted June 27, 2008 Report Share Posted June 27, 2008 USO broke out of its rectangle. didn't buy. but i'm happy with my EEV, FXP, and SRS for now. even with these darlings, my port's almost half cash. bailed out of SKF a few trading days back. but if the booga king index nixes shport at sixty, SKF will fly like a mutha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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