-350 point Thursday!

[Drano]

Aussie's a vegetarian.

 

She likes her beef to be walking around -- just not trading successfully.

[cwd]

In January, when IYR was around 60ish, its approximate 2X inverse SRS was in the 140-150(spike) range.

 

Now, when IYR is at 61.47, SRS is at 102.73.

 

Which one is valued incorrectly?

669584[/snapback]

 

 

They both be correct depending on what is in the SRS. The SRS is a derivative

of IYR, so IYR should be the most correct.

 

The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective from yahoo finance

[Drano]

No, there has always been a strong "sentiment" factor in the SRS. The question is, was the sentiment overblown when it was close to the current levels and SRS was at 140ish, or is sentiment not bearish enough now when IYR is at similar levels and SRS is around 102?

 

And as our beloved LeeWhee pointed out, SRS is not exactly inverse IYR. Some components are different. But it shouldn't be different enough to have THIS magnitude of change.

[cwd]

Not a recommendation but the Golden Sacks boys just turned openly bearish on financials today.

You should look into money management/position sizing if you haven't already. When you gritted your teeth back at 90 you could have tucked it in and added to your position. Of course if you were wrong this would have undoubtedly aggravated your situation.

669602[/snapback]

 

 

I don't speak for KW, but as I understand what he has written is that he uses very tight stops, and if HE misses, gets back later on. No stops in the double inverse funds is a good way to get a margin call IMO.

[Jimi]

Anyone know what Richard Russell saying today?

 

Anyone know who will be filling in for Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker this weekend?

 

Is this what windsurfers understand of superficial analogies to Weimar?

[cwd]

Anyone know what Richard Russell saying today?

 

Anyone know who will be filling in for Hans Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker this weekend?

 

Is this what windsurfers understand of superficial analogies to Weimar?

669612[/snapback]

 

 

Standby and I will check.

[DrStool]

Russell. Talk about egg on your face. 50+ years in the business and he goes deep and gets suckered by one of the most obvious sucker rallies of all time.

 

And just how stupid is the Fed? They don't get it. They've never gotten it. And they never will get it. Fed policy is guaranteed to be wrong all the time because these guys are the court jesters. For the past 7 years they have covered their eyes, and refused, REFUSED, to acknowledge, or even open their eyes to the fact that asset inflation is inflation.

 

There is no way out of this other than a thunderous out of control deflationary collapse once this hyperinflation has run its course, whenever that is. I think we're close. So to that extent Kohn may be right, but I guarantee that since the Fed doesn't understand its responsibility for what is transpiring now, they will absolutely positively get the policy response wrong.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/26/news/econo...hn.ap/index.htm

[mdporter]

Projections don't work on the double inverse charts at all. The funds are designed to trade 2X the DAILY change, so they get skewed when moving in the direction of the 2X. You would have to look at IYR and key off that. The 2x charts just don't act like normal stock charts. Trending especially tends to have a weird skew. If I were trading them, and I do sometimes-- had a buy on QID for some weeks now-- I base the trade on the underlying chart.

 

I'll post something about IYR in tonight's market report.

669605[/snapback]

 

Thanks for the information

[mdporter]

BANGALORE (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc shares fell to their lowest level in nearly a decade after a Goldman Sachs & Co anal cyst said investors should sell the largest U.S. bank's stock short as losses mount from troubled debt.

 

In morning trading, the shares were down $1.03, or 5.5 percent, at $17.82 on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares were among the biggest drags on the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500, which both fell more than 1 percent.

 

The anal cyst said Citigroup might take $8.9 billion of write-downs for the April-to-June period, leading to its third straight quarterly loss. He also said the bank might need to cut its quarterly dividend for a second time this year, after lowering it 41 percent to 32 cents per share in January.

 

 

Citigroup has even more money to lose. Quick line up the additional capital.

[Jimi]

How did the Dow Transports do today? Did we get any Dow Theory signal?

 

I've only got questions - no answers.

[mdporter]

AAPL clearly rolling over. There's a gap at 155

 

Might be getting an iPhone 2.0 at work. Can't wait, especially since I won't have to pay the bill.

[MrHanky]

Russell. Talk about egg on your face. 50+ years in the business and he goes deep and gets suckered by one of the most obvious sucker rallies of all time.

 

And just how stupid is the Fed? They don't get it. They've never gotten it. And they never will get it. Fed policy is guaranteed to be wrong all the time because these guys are the court jesters. For the past 7 years they have covered their eyes, and refused, REFUSED, to acknowledge, or even open their eyes to the fact that asset inflation is inflation.

 

There is no way out of this other than a thunderous out of control deflationary collapse once this hyperinflation has run its course, whenever that is.  I think we're close. So to that extent Kohn may be right, but I guarantee that since the Fed doesn't understand its responsibility for what is transpiring now, they will absolutely positively get the policy response wrong.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/26/news/econo...hn.ap/index.htm

669614[/snapback]

Some dude on Krudlow's show(first time I ever watched )said that if the fed does not raise rates quickly,our markets may drop 30-50%

[mdporter]

wamu and bank of america had down days again. Wamu is gonna choke on all their crappy loans, and BAC is going to gag itself on countryslide!

[joe3pack]

been messing around with the CCI(100). a certain poster on clearstation uses this as a bottom indicator on the daily charts.

 

the deeper below -100, the more solid the bottom (credit sir mixalot).

 

on the SPX daily, the CCI(100) is now about -130. in bear bottoms past, the CCI(100) got as low as -200 (august 2007) and -300 (january 2008).

 

we could bottom out here, but it's more likely that we go for a climactic low in the near future, at which time one should get ready to remove the bear suit for a while.

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p26139026104

 

and the $VIX has yet to give the signal.

[mdporter]

Some dude on Krudlow's show(first time I ever watched    )said that if the fed does not raise rates quickly,our markets may drop 30-50%

669620[/snapback]

 

If the fed raises rates it is all over for the banks and the economy.

 

The fed is damned if they do, and damned if they don't.

 

They screwed up for the last time. Uncle Ben should never have lowered rates. Now they will have to sit there and take it while they flap their pie holes endlessly.

 

All the other central banks are raising rates in response to the real inflation.

 

It's going to be a long, hot, summer. Add some smoke for my fellow Bay Area stoolies.