joe3pack Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 when the dow broke shport back in january, it futzed around a few days before going into a week of tankage. dow punched thru shport with authoritah today, and 'twould be simply rude for it not to follow thru as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Doc, can we get some cycle projections on SRS if you have some free time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 He's busy playing with poopy diapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Looks pretty obvious now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Billions more to write down. Downgraded by Goldman's Sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Just in case Aussie is feeling well enough to check in -- we'll send you a nice dinner -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdporter Posted June 26, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 50% crash since May. Not bullish. Experts are panning their efforts on the new Volt car, saying that they don't have the time or technical skillz needed to meet their goals. The Forbes magazine auto guy gave them three years to live in the latest issue. GMAC finance bleeding money 33 year lows. Will it go to zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrest Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Sorry to read of some stoolies losing money on a day like today. Myself, I've finally realized that I'm a terrible trader, invariably get stopped out only to then see my chosen position reverse and be back in the money. Except that I've been stopped, left back at the station with my ticket punched. So I decided to switch strategies, changed to the tried-and-true 'buy-and-hold' plan; stops be damned. I know that most folks here say that the 2x inverse funds are only for very short-term plays, but a couple of months ago I jumped off the cliff, bought a few thousand shares of SKF @ 108. Was coughing up blood when it dropped down into the low 90's, but rather than folding and taking the loss I gritted my teeth, held on. To get through that period, I employed the standard J6P ploy: don't open your statements! Gotta say, right now I don't mind one little bit opening those statements. With SKF closing today real close to 147 It's extremely tempting to sell and book the profit, but I just can't see any reason to think that the financials are going back up any time soon. Why would they? The days of the banks creating fabulous wealth for themselves out of thin air are gone. What other prospects do they have? I'm serious about this; anyone have any reason to think that 'da boyz' are gonna be able to recreate the magic they used to have, and get their stock prices back up? Seems to me that that genie is waay outta the bottle, never to return. At least not in my lifetime. Anyone? Anyone? Yes, you there in back... And a sincere thank-you to K-Wave. A couple of weeks ago he mentioned that BBY could be headed south if the price dipped below 44. It dipped, I shorted @43.80 with my new no-stop strategy. Of course it went back up, but I refused to cave in and hand over the cash. Held on tight, and right now I'm in-da-money to the tune of a few thousand $$. Certainly paid for my extravagantly expensive subscription to WSJ. So let's hear it for K-Wave: Clap-clap-clap-clap-clap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 In January, when IYR was around 60ish, its approximate 2X inverse SRS was in the 140-150(spike) range. Now, when IYR is at 61.47, SRS is at 102.73. Which one is valued incorrectly? 669584[/snapback] I also wished they were more transparent and that it would be easier to get a "fair value" for these ETF's. If you look at SRS' historical prices from yohoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SRS You'll find it pays a dividend. Payed about 80 cents since January. Compared with most stocks IYR top holdings haven't fallen much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 congrats Forrest. I have a small portion of my trading money in LEAPs for similar reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Sorry to read of some stoolies losing money on a day like today. Myself, I've finally realized that I'm a terrible trader, invariably get stopped out only to then see my chosen position reverse and be back in the money. Except that I've been stopped, left back at the station with my ticket punched. So I decided to switch strategies, changed to the tried-and-true 'buy-and-hold' plan; stops be damned. I know that most folks here say that the 2x inverse funds are only for very short-term plays, but a couple of months ago I jumped off the cliff, bought a few thousand shares of SKF @ 108. Was coughing up blood when it dropped down into the low 90's, but rather than folding and taking the loss I gritted my teeth, held on. To get through that period, I employed the standard J6P ploy: don't open your statements! Gotta say, right now I don't mind one little bit opening those statements. With SKF closing today real close to 147 It's extremely tempting to sell and book the profit, but I just can't see any reason to think that the financials are going back up any time soon. Why would they? The days of the banks creating fabulous wealth for themselves out of thin air are gone. What other prospects do they have? I'm serious about this; anyone have any reason to think that 'da boyz' are gonna be able to recreate the magic they used to have, and get their stock prices back up? Seems to me that that genie is waay outta the bottle, never to return. At least not in my lifetime. Anyone? Anyone? Yes, you there in back... And a sincere thank-you to K-Wave. A couple of weeks ago he mentioned that BBY could be headed south if the price dipped below 44. It dipped, I shorted @43.80 with my new no-stop strategy. Of course it went back up, but I refused to cave in and hand over the cash. Held on tight, and right now I'm in-da-money to the tune of a few thousand $$. Certainly paid for my extravagantly expensive subscription to WSJ. So let's hear it for K-Wave: Clap-clap-clap-clap-clap. 669598[/snapback] Not a recommendation but the Golden Sacks boys just turned openly bearish on financials today. You should look into money management/position sizing if you haven't already. When you gritted your teeth back at 90 you could have tucked it in and added to your position. Of course if you were wrong this would have undoubtedly aggravated your situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pegasus Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Isn't it wonderful that we have free and transparent financial markets? Worst June For Dow Since Great Depression "If stocks have another day like this tomorrow, then the fallout next week could include government intervention in the markets," said Doelling. " -Pegasus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Doc, can we get some cycle projections on SRS if you have some free time? 669591[/snapback] Projections don't work on the double inverse charts at all. The funds are designed to trade 2X the DAILY change, so they get skewed when moving in the direction of the 2X. You would have to look at IYR and key off that. The 2x charts just don't act like normal stock charts. Trending especially tends to have a weird skew. If I were trading them, and I do sometimes-- had a buy on QID for some weeks now-- I base the trade on the underlying chart. I'll post something about IYR in tonight's market report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 as a bear I always assumed that at some point in time we could say that 'We had em'... I thought it would be very cut and dry. The bulls would be slaughtered and the bears would be victorious. I thought we would all get to wear bear skins and dance around a fire or something... But I now realise this is a never ending battle,daily trench warfare. I suspect only the very clever and very disciplined traders make money over the long haul. I keep missing these big drops and live in constant fear of a reaming anytime I go short(which is rarer and rarer these days.. ). I think that the whole shooting match has slipped out of the pigmens control,yet I can't for the life of me throw short. Being a bear at least helped me prepare my business for tough times. But as far as trading goes, I find it near impossible. Kudos to those who do make money... PS How is Beardrech going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted June 26, 2008 Report Share Posted June 26, 2008 Just in case Aussie is feeling well enough to check in -- we'll send you a nice dinner -- 669595[/snapback] Where's the beef? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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