Gold Majestic Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 posts like this one, from someone who contributes little to nothing make me wonder why i continue to post!dharma 665438[/snapback] someone who contributes little to nothing I understand your sentiment, dharma. IMO, the namesake of the poster fits the comments of the poster very well. For me, no offense is taken. I do get carried away, at times, explaining my opinion on the markets. I certainly can dish it out, but importantly, I can take it as well. Bring on the constructive criticism, and if warranted will attempt to learn from it. And as you pointed out, dharma, it's mostly a difference of investing styles. (So no big deal.) It's not the first time I've been characterized as a "Perm-bull" because of being a bullish investor in a SECULAR BULL MARKET. That same poster would probably label me a "Perma-Bear" if I were bearish in a secular bear market. I can attest to the fact that the most conservative, safe, practical way to grow your savings over time is not by trading in and out of markets. One is able, with very little difficulty, to research this speculative, ?trading-in-and-out? practice to discover that the vast majority of participants consistently lose more money than they gain. This is fact. That is not to say that a few, experienced traders that live, breath these markets sitting behind a computer screen all day don't do quite well using there various TA systems. But most of these TA experts with a long track record of success will attest to the importance of a knowledge of the fundamental factors shaping the financial markets. In today?s world, it seems that investors are being outnumbered by a new breed of instant-gratification, ?just show me what I need to know,? just tell me ?what pill I need to take,? just give me the "magic chart system" crowd. This impatient crowd demands not knowledge, not understanding, but a ?what/when? buy-sell system without the ?why? to make their decisions for them. My guess would be that for these individuals, the fundamentals are too much trouble to understand and take too much time to research. Maybe they're lazy? Wise investors realize the importance of hard work to research the sector fundamentals, the companies, their managements, their competitors before investing, and the importance of diversification, etc., as a requisite for success. They share the understanding of the importance of being ?well grounded? in the fundamentals of the markets and various sectors before entering the water. The degree to which one understands the fundamentals correlates to one?s conviction and resolve. Since the fundamentals drive the charts, an understanding of the ?Big Picture? helps the investor to be well positioned and diversified BEFORE the arrival of the crowd. Charts, especially long-term, serve as the BEST verification tool, that one is interpreting the fundamentals correctly. To blindly ?Buy and Hold? stocks, as some here erroneously charge, is not recommended at all. Instead, what has been repeatedly explained is that by employing a long-term investment strategy, grounded in the economic/sector/company fundamentals, one can successfully accumulate extremely over-sold companies (companies the market herd incorrectly prices) with the intentions of gaining ?Risk-Free shares? by taking off the table, 100% of the original investment capital. These ?Risk-Free shares? can then accumulate in one?s core portfolio. As the secular bull market progresses, wise investors who have diligently researched and invested in a basket of ridiculously cheap resource companies, many of which are prime take-over candidates, will observe their ?Risk-Free? shares doubling, tripling, quadrupling, etc., over the years and eventually being bought out for cash / with shares / combination of the two or merging. I can list at least 20 companies of which I have held ?Risk Free? shares in my core portfolio just since 1999 that have been taken over. Many of these companies experienced TREMENDOUS capital gains. I have no qualms about posting evidence of this fact, not to boast or brag, but to testify to the truth of what I say. However, I realize that posting such evidence to reveal the truth of such incredible success for the benefit of the group would for some, be considered extremely bad form, pompous, arrogant, boastful, you name it, and invite all sorts of negative reactions. Hey, but it wouldn't bother this goober in the slightest. I could care less if the truth were to offend someone as long as its meant for the right purpose, to demonstrate the effectiveness of a conservative approach to investing. Hey that's an idea! Anyone wanna share ?Schedule D-1 Capital Gains" reports that go back as far as 10 years? Reports that show AT LEAST 20 plus "10 baggers" (over 1000% gains), some as much as 7,000 plus % gains? That might shed some light on the efficacy of being a Bull in a Secular Bull market. Someone, perhaps Charmin? could judge the Schedule D-1s and report the results? I would be in favor of an experienced "trader" with a long track record of consistent profits showing multi-millions in capital gains. Is that too outrageous of a request? Would it not benefit the group here to see how some are profiting from their investing method? I'm game! Any thoughts from the many great posters on this thread? Bearvest, you game? "No Einstein," what's your take? Regardless, I'd like to see some contributions from you backing up your comments to this board. How about it? Thanks all. gooberout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 Here's a chart of the DAILY USD-Reciprocal and HUI Chart showing we?re close to the HUI ?launch pad,? as opined earlier, no later than July 1st. And as the monthly charts posted earlier showed, we?re about there now. The USD?s current uptrend could terminate near the confluence of resistance at the 75 level. The %B indicator has been an excellent timing tool over the years and as can be seen is once again approaching the over-sold level. The secular bear market USD chart is experiencing a continuation pattern that bodes poorly for the dollar. And the USD COT report is not reflecting an extended rally in the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 I think that is spot on ander ONe of thsoe two, or something even more complex and drwn out to frustrate the hell out of all of us As I see it: Option 1: After a small rally to HUI 435-440ish, we drop to 370-390 for the ultimate bottom of this correction. (BV's chart) Option 2: The decline since May 21 was the B wave in a 3 wave rally to 470-490, which will be followed by a decline to the 390? level, for the ultimate bottom of this correction. #1 is over faster, #2 goes up significantly more before before a bigger drop. Its very hard for me to see a pattern that doesnt lead to a significant decline, because there is a pretty obvious 3 waves up from April 28 to May 21, and the decline since then seems to severe to be a wave 4. 665260[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 I don't know for sure...but I "think" The CoinGuy mentioned something about 1377.79 being the dividing line between a bull/bear market? Interesting that yesterday's intra-day low seem to key off that exact number? For "Dip-Shit" Central...I'm sorry, but your clock is going to be cleaned on a permanent basis. What? Bear Market. SANDP 3000? Wake up...let me smack you back to reality. The gold market? I don't feel qualified to answer... Although, I do remember TCG mentioning the $HUI @ 640.88 and selling into strength? If I recall correctly, there was a "mid-term" correction afterwards? I'm old and don't have a good memory. Sorry. Back to obscurity... Oral of Omaha P.S. Ander. Chuckling....had fun with that post. My Padawan was given the short term numbers...you ask him. I'm locking down the cave... Where is Bau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 I can understand the US$ showing some sideways movement with the forked tongue talk by the money changers. Hope another bombing run is not on their minds as a temporary dollar prop. Sinclair's pals are all over the dollar and euro charts as correlations are made with gold. In particular 74 for dollar will not be seen again according to its down trend line with the Euro finding support along its up trend line at 152.50. Plus talk about changes in accounting rules to prevent under the sheets maneuvers which will expose losses on the bottom lines of just about every entity. We shall see....soon. The Fed is not adding more give away dates because things are hunky dory in the banking world. Then I read (Boone Pickens) China is soaking up any oil that US vehicles doesn't use due to high prices so I doubt barrels of oil will see $100 in the near future. I suppose I don't have to mention the sudden downfall of Hummers and SUVs sales. A move in miners is due around July give or take month as I look at the past action in PMPIX. Good luck in your holdings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 What is completely upsetting.....and the sole reason why I left this forum.... The dollar move...the S&P...gold, silver, oil, gold...was forecasted here "with precision." What? Jimmy didn't say so... You underestimate me...From day one. Goodbye. 10x richer, but a 10th of the respect...you getting it GM? WID...buy a mutual fund? You commenting on markets...well, I might as well buy on Prechters advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 You don't need me to tell you what to do so don't worry about...... I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 I see July is mentioned to key off of. Seasonality Gold ** End of July To end of September gain 11.1% Amex Gold Bug End of July To end of September gain 12.51% http://dvtechtalk.com/June/June3.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 posts like this one, from someone who contributes little to nothing make me wonder why i continue to post!dharma 665438[/snapback] dharma....your are absolutly right...I have deleted the part of the post that is offensive.. please delete the imbeded portion in your post so that there will be no record of my insensitive and stupid remarks... NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 What is completely upsetting.....and the sole reason why I left this forum.... The dollar move...the S&P...gold, silver, oil, gold...was forecasted here "with precision." What? Jimmy didn't say so... You underestimate me...From day one. Goodbye. 10x richer, but a 10th of the respect...you getting it GM? WID...buy a mutual fund? You commenting on markets...well, I might as well buy on Prechters advice. 665530[/snapback] from day 1 when i came on board, in obscurity, i recognized a few who have traveled the same road. those who are left, meta, gold majestic,skid, and the coin guy etc. i recognize my limitations, its why i dont trade. if you watch kwave, you know what a superb trader can do. coin guy speaking for myself. your chart work, for me is a different approach to charts. i have watched your predictions and work for over 4years now. you are the real deal. no one is appreciated by everyone. those of us who do appreciate your input feel the loss. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 There must be a low in here somewhere - the passion and intensity is starting to boil over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoolbob-brownpants Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 [Hey, but it wouldn't bother this goober in the slightest. I could care less if the truth were to offend someone as long as its meant for the right purpose, to demonstrate the effectiveness of a conservative approach to investing. Hey that's an idea! Anyone wanna share ?Schedule D-1 Capital Gains" reports that go back as far as 10 years? gooberout 665519[/snapback] I like your reference to schedule D-1 (the extra pages for capital gains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSixPack Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 Guys, As a frequent "learner" from you folks (prefer that to the "lurker" label, .. sounds so sleazy somehow, .. :-), it pains me to see the level of discord and gnashing of teeth that has surfaced here recently. Hopefully Charmin is right, simply a sign of an imminent low. I have a great deal of respect for TCG, GM, Dharma, Meta and Skid among others and admire your discipline, technical skills and convictions. Difficult to convey that without coming across as a complete "suck-up", but I feel obligated to let you know that your insights are valued. For every poster here, there are probably a dozen other anonymous folks that gain from your perspectives. TCG, I hope you reconsider and continue to share. Afterall, you've drummed The Formation and Hybrid-W into me. Can't leave me hanging now, .. :-) Respectfully, .. JoeSixPack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 I agree with Charmin, but may be putting words in his mouth, the discord is beautiful. And the harbinger of a move. No one who isn't thick-skinned should be in this market. The dollar is a bad joke. You don't erase 5,000 years of history with degrees from Harvard and MIT, a printing press, and irrational confidence in the power of Orwellian spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted June 4, 2008 Report Share Posted June 4, 2008 hourly 9bar wilder rsi divergences on hui/xau. if market turns up we will begin the rally that fails. many stocks are showing rsi divergences from Dover Sole. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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