Charmin Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 When I read "all four metals now giving mixed signals" from the Aden sisters the only thing that came to mind was - If your holding the bag, I hope there's a few lucky charms inside. http://www.kitco.com/ind/aden/may272008.html From the prior scenario -"If gold holds above $840, it?ll be incredibly strong." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 HUI: I'm still of the view that it's too soon to buy---although I expect that Gold and the miners will be much higher by the fall---hitting all-time highs. I'm basing my opinion on my Elliott counts which I always temper by looking at patterns and the oscillators. I use MACD to detect trend confirmations or non-confirmations (a proxy for a 13 week cycle). I use Stochastics to place me within an Elliott pattern--usually at or near its terminus. I lost my bearings in December, but quickly regained them. I doubted the rally due to MACD's negative divergence in January and correctly, I believe, called the wedge top. With 3 waves on the chart by late April, I was a very wild bull. As you know, I turned bearish in mid-May due to the overlap and have continued with a bearish posture since. I sold out into the rally that followed the overlap. What I see is two ABC patterns on the chart. Where a smaller ABC follows a larger ABC, the pattern is either a triangle or a WXY pattern. Obviously, the steep downtrend line tends to militate against a triangle. Thus, my best analysis is a WXY pattern (3 waves each of which subdivide into 3 waves). If we then try to project the pattern forward, the upward correction in B will certainly hit the 4th wave terminus of the impulse down---430. That could set up a nasty H&S pattern on the chart. Simply eye-balling the chart and ignoring the tails of the candles shows a congestion zone at 425-30. Thus, if I'm right and we have a corrective "B" to come and an impulsive "C" to follow, Stochastics will surely fall below 20. I don't believe I'm impatient or impulsive. I may have to wait another week or two to enter long. I just don't trust long term patterns, nor do I have the stomach to sit through 15 to 20% corrections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 bv-i am not disagreeing w/your analysis. however, when trends start(dont know if this is the case here or not) they always start on low volume. volume builds as the trend progress'. most are looking for lower #s now. i read on the boards 740, 780-800 i say hmmmmm. the bulls are silent except me and skid. hell i am a tick riding the bulls back. there are many battles. i am seated. and watching. i will look @ the markets manana. 885 is resistance , 850 is support. lets see what happens. none of the drivers have changed ! the wars are still going. real estate is not turning around. and the deficits will loom larger. yes, i am w/the trend and drivers. corrections are normal market action. so is the trend and nothing has stopped its motion. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 Trendlines, Buy, and Hold: I've always drawn trendlines from the tails and wicks of the candles. There are some that say a trendline should be drawn only from the body of the candle. The tails and wicks represent only "dumb money" at extremes. A third, but growingly obsolete camp, say that trendlines should only be drawn from closing prices---on the theory that the close represents the sum of all knowlege that day. I'm a believer in trendlines. They are fundamental to cyclical analysis of the market according to Hurst's channels and the principle of "nesting". Moreover, I believe that they illustrate patterns. And if you believe in patterns, you must adopt the fundamental principle of technical analysis---that patterns pictorally represent the repetitive behavior of the sentiment of the market participants. That said, I have a serious mistrust of patterns that exceed a year or two, and of course, the trendlines or support and resistance areas that demarcate their boundaries. Within a 4-5 year cycle, the Joe 6-packs change. No one remembers the pain of the depths of the bottoms or the exhilaration of the highs. The complaint with the leading exponent of Elliott is that his long term analysis is flawed. And with that I agree. In so doing, I reject the hypothesis that patterns may be projected into monthly charts. The markets are now a function of fast money--long waves such as Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and even DOW theory probably have ceased to exist with the advent of fast money. Fast money means fast patterns--- and fast exit and entry. The days of "Buy and Hold" are a historicic relic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 bv-markets remain the same greed/fear dominated. this commodity bull is no different than the one inspired by the stagflation of the 70s. and i think will play out in a similar way. the most money was made by a buy and hold strategy, which is not easy ,particularly when the parabolic gets going. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted May 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 Canslimers watch closes above and below the 50dma. It was noted that the XAU closed back above the 50dma. http://www.canslim.net/mc/MCCurrent.asp ABX, AUY and SLW are on their list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 If you can't time the swings correctly then jumping in and out is a crap shoot. Playing for the % swings with buy low sell high sounds like an infomercial if you can do it, great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted May 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 If you can't time the swings correctly then jumping in and out is a crap shoot. Playing for the % swings with buy low sell high sounds like an infomercial if you can do it, great. 664969[/snapback] One could just buy and "Don?t be Afraid." The fundamentals justify prices moving higher despite the mood swings. In that case you'd be an investor, not a trader. Peter Schiff http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0530.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 If we can say that gold is in a long-term bull trend that has a ways to go, which I believe we can, I believe the vast majority of people would do far better over the long term by averaging in and holding and buying more on dips. That's about what my strategy is. Some of us aren't smart enough to be traders, profitable traders I mean. Anybody can be a trader. But we are smart enough to know that if we do trade, we'll probably get caught with our pants down at just the wrong time. So, if a great trader can make an x% return over the bull run and I can only make an x/2% return, that's just fine with me. Almost no one is a great trader. And those that are deserve the rewards that flow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted May 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 DGP double long gold had noteworthy volume Thursday since it came on board. It didn't break any pivot points in doing so. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1212261069.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 1, 2008 Report Share Posted June 1, 2008 Skidmark, based on a conservative estimate, we got our 10 Billion lbs copper with Candente?s resource update. If you check out the graphics on their website, you?ll see how much already discovered mineralization this update doesn?t include. The next resource update to come in September should continue to be very impressive. Bottom line, Candente remains very cheap compared to the recent copper deposit acquisitions and one of the prime takeover candidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 1, 2008 Report Share Posted June 1, 2008 It?s pretty simple, in a Bull Market, Be a Bull. And to identify a bull market, study the fundamentals. Those unable to grasp the significance of the long-term, ?big picture? fundamentals that DIRECTS the markets and DRIVES the charts, fail to understand where the fundamentals are taking us. The historical charts teach us that ?This time is NOT different? and that those whom fail to study the past are destined to repeat the same mistakes. Without having to look far, we find ample evidence of the success of those investors grounded in the fundamentals who accumulate the dips with a longer-term perspective, taking investment capital off the table and adding ?free shares? to core positions as compared to those who lack such initiative, instead attempting to rely upon short-term "squiggles" to trade in and out of the markets. Speaking of the ?screaming bullish? fundamentals and their implications for the precious metals, here?s a couple basic ones that are directing the markets and consequently, the charts on the path of least resistance, up. On a short-term basis, Thursday?s sell-off ?back testing? the former resistance line (SEE GDX CHART) is just part of the process leading to a renewed advance. The only ones who panic out are those lacking conviction because they?re unable to grasp the basic concepts (forest for the trees dilemma). For the rest of us, we understand short-term swings are the nature of bull markets, yawn . . . I?ve attached a couple charts, one that overlays Kitco?s GFMS Base Metal Index over $GOLD and $HUI. Fundamentalists are already aware how energy and materials impact the costs of metals extraction and thus profits of the PM companies that make up the HUI. The chart speaks for itself as to the importance of these basic fundamentals. When energy/material costs rise percentage wise faster than gold/silver, profits decline, gold stock market goes down, chart of gold stocks go down. I know, too simple. So I won?t narrate the charts, but take a quick glance to verify the facts and implications. ?Think to relate? the many factors that drive the markets/charts: Credit Crisis immerges, Credit Crisis subsides, Credit Crisis re-immerges, etc. We know that contrary to the reassurances, that "all is well now," Credit problems continue to be a huge problem and will continue to re-assert themselves (extremely bullish for gold). We know that base metals are supported by a falling dollar (anyone, seriously, still bullish on the dollar???), low world inventories, demand exceeding supply (BraRuChindia ? ?BRIC?), etc., and that viewing the chart, Gold is currently in the process of outperforming the base metals once again! That screams that PM stocks are about ready to outperform not only materials, but gold as well. Hedge Funds' investment dollar flows are a city water-main pipe, basic materials a fire hose, PM stocks a garden hose. A garden hose can?t accommodate that much pressure and explodes. It?s called sector rotation and the fundamentals explain why it?s coming yet again. First the large-cap PMs, then the small-cap PMs (pipe, fire hose, garden hose, STRAW), you know what I?m talking about, the 500% type of moves. gooberout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2008 and I could swear XLB, EWZ brazil and RIO all look similar. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2008 NAK has been treading water in what appears to be a lucky charm area. How many times do they give you to retest a breakout area from Feb. 2007? http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1212291393.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted June 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2008 ANO same deal. Retesting a breakout area from Oct. 2007. The drums keep beating - how many times? http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1212291481.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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