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Monthly Digger - April 2008


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GOLD:

 

Just an Elliott hunch.

 

But if we take out 928 on the June contract, the correction's likely over.

 

Charmin--- I'm with you. $850 GOLD is a massive support level. The last fib level for an abbreviated "c" is at 78.6% or 858.76.

 

I never rely on the precision of Fibonacci. But I do respect the zones.

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AUY is retesting a breakout area from January inside a trend channel

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1207188642.png

655821[/snapback]

 

AUY:

 

Thanks for the chart.

 

I stayed away from AUY because of its poor technicals.

 

It broke support on the P&F.

 

5 waves down on stoshastics and on balance volume. MACD showing negative divergence.

 

Price, however, often is the final arbiter.

 

Very often, I've seen poor tecnicals reverse abruptly with good price action.

 

But I'd be guarded with this one.

post-1352-1207192227_thumb.jpg

post-1352-1207192598.png

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GOLD:

 

Just an Elliott hunch.

 

But if we take out 928 on the June contract, the correction's likely over.

 

Charmin--- I'm with you. $850 GOLD is a massive support level. The last fib level for an abbreviated "c" is at 78.6% or 858.76.

 

I never rely on the precision of Fibonacci. But I do respect the zones.

655828[/snapback]

 

 

Abbreviated C. I like Silver and Gold but I would be tempted to buy Palladium if we could get a move down to 390-400. I bought some physical Silver yesterday and early this morning but I have this nagging feeling we need another trip south before we break out. 16-16.50 looks solid for Silver on any weakness.

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Why bother with MRB, just buy its proud papa, NGD.  Regarding synergies, I will leave that to Mr. Lassonde (who, as noted below, will own 5% of NGD, not bad company...) to describe: "That's the sweet spot where large institutions find the liquidity they need to enter a gold company,'' said Lassonde, who will own a 5 percent stake in the new company. "Only when you put the three companies together do you get it, and you get it all in spades.''

 

Peak, Metallica, New Gold Plan $1.6 Billion Merger

 

The presentation goes into more detail.

The NEW New Gold - Presentation

655765[/snapback]

 

New Gold on its own doesn't produce until 2011, and is way too over weight copper.

 

The new company concerns me as the Peak mines only have reserves to last 2 years.

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GG:

 

At the time, I thought GG overpaid for GLG.

 

In retrospect, GG got GLG's wealth in the ground at what now appears to be a bargain price.

 

GG has an active options market. It's a core holding in my retirement account.

 

Once it gets overbought, I simply sell the next or current expiry calls against my long position.

 

In 3 of the last 4 months, the calls expired worthless and I bought my position down by $6.00 per share. I haven't sold any April calls yet.

655787[/snapback]

 

GG is my only senior. Did think the premium was too high it paid to end up with a positive cash cost. GG on its own actually had negative cash costs, so GLG ended up brining lower quality production.

 

So glad Telfer is gone.

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We'll talk more about NGD later and at much higher prices.

 

New Gold on its own doesn't produce until 2011, and is way too over weight copper.

 

The new company concerns me as the Peak mines only have reserves to last 2 years.

655838[/snapback]

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AUY:

 

Thanks for the chart.

 

I stayed away from AUY because of its poor technicals.

 

It broke support on the P&F.

 

5 waves down on stoshastics and on balance volume. MACD showing negative divergence.

 

Price, however, often is the final arbiter.

 

Very often, I've seen poor tecnicals reverse abruptly with good price action.

 

But I'd be guarded with this one.

655829[/snapback]

 

If AUY goes to 8, that would be the buy of a lifetime. Not counting on it. I don't think I could restrain myself from selling anything not nailed down to pick up more in the 12 range if it gets there.

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Does this sound familiar?

 

Totally game over...write offs...a total write off...

 

And the top could have easily pulled the plug in 1971 when the Bretton Woods lie ended and was replaced with the New Economy lie and plunged the global system into mind boggling doomsday if that's what their goal was...

 

Good thing they didn't or you would not be reading this...The past 37 years was sustained by a childishly simple accounting trick...to buy more time...But they are out of accounting tricks now...

 

And the cost to buy more time is going up exponentially...At least it has to forever...

 

Holy cow if it goes up forever GOLD will be worth 100 Quadrillion dollars an ounce...ya and then a nanosecond later 200 Quadrillion dollars an ounce...

 

Wooo boy I can't wait...I'll have to tow a super computer around with me just to calculate the cost of a paper clip...sounds fabulous...

 

It will implode long before that...Until then enjoy the soap opera...

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Yamana.

 

Traditional PnF has limitations, as mentioned before....most importantly a fixed box size. HUI and Yamana have been quite volatile and it thus behooves us to look at a more dynamic box adjustment as offered in the ATR setting. In this case there is NO sell signal and support has held. My bottom line is 13.80.

post-361-1207265243_thumb.jpg

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