FauxCaster Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Hanky- You have always shown yourself to have great investment instincts so I think you'll be ok, but I suspect that the market will drop to the level of your purchase price at some point. So, Mazel Tov! 651598[/snapback] Just hedge your Vegas bet by going long water stocks. And don't read any of those "Peak Water" websites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 They're starting to circle... http://www.subprimelosses.com/ After the subprime and AltA losses come the lawyers looking for a big payday. The finaglers are so F'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FauxCaster Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 I'd always heard the Fed prided itself that it didn't "bail out" LTCM, it just put the creditors in a room and locked the door. I guess they have no pride now. And ironically, if I remember correctly, there was only on brokerage who refused to attend -- Bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 You'll see more of these in the coming months... Carlyle?s Rubenstein Vows to ?Make Amends? March 14, 2008, 7:53 am David M. Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, pledged on Thursday to ?make amends? to investors in a fund that has ties to his firm and is facing collapse. ?We?re working to find ways to help people to deal with losses and maybe recover some capital,? Mr. Rubenstein told The New York Times. ... link... I'm thimkin' it's time to go long Hallmark Cards.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 "Dupre says on her MySpace page, which had racked up more than 7 million visits through yesterday since her identity was revealed, that she moved to New York in 2004 to pursue her music career and spent two years networking in clubs." "`Kristen,' Linked to Spitzer, Becomes Overnight Pop Star on Web " http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...4C_s&refer=home She probably thinks a Fellatio is a musical instrument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 About this business about the hotel rooms in Vegas, I don't think there's a chance in hell that they will be built, and I also don't think that it will be long before the cranes are stilled. The financing to run those cranes will dry up very soon. I think back to the article that LeeWhee wrote about Vegas not quite a year ago. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/?p=168 The crowd behavior that Hanky described should also be a concern. It sounds like ReBubble. Hordes of "investors" snapping up properties, is not going to make the oversupply problem go away. It will put more rentals on the market at lower prices, and that should take the upward pressure off rents. Working in favor of a recovery is of course the cheap dollar. We'll see how long that trend lasts. Collapsing debt and deflation does have the potential to reverse that. I think that Hanky is smart enough and nimble enough to recognize the conditions on the ground, so I think that while he may have been early, he should be ok. On the other hand, if in a couple of months, he still feels nervous, then I think that he would trust his gut and flip the property while the gettin is good in what looks to me like a huge reaction rally in the Vegas market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The Rogers interview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 dude, let me take the stereotype a bit further: asians in general like to gamble. (hey, i'm asian--i can say it.) but it's difficult to say whether their propensity to engage in gambling is greater than anyone else's. as for japanese ostentation, it's there and it can be severe, but they've been at it awhile so it doesn't look out of place; the chinese are still in the noveau-riche stage, so their taste in western luxury is less subtle. a chinese CEO might buy very dear wine just to show off to his friends and colleagues, then pour seven-up into his vintage to make it taste better. the japanese lower middle class that can ill afford louis vitton, prada, and other high-crass products--they go and buy them anyway. on credit. samurai discipline, indeed. 651663[/snapback] I know what you mean with japanese ostentation But that's 100% japanese tech. Of course the image of hardworking japanese has been fading and is also a stereotype, and chinese also have the hardworking low margin/make it up with volume stereotype attached. The noveau-riche stage that they're in as you mentioned, is the biggest difference, not the stereotyping conclusions I abusively made. Their propensity for gambling can also be explained because it's the forbidden fruit (they can only gamble at Macau). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Stoolhouse Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The Rogers interview <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTXEWh2yT_g&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTXEWh2yT_g&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object> 651677[/snapback] There has always been something appealing to me about slightly crabby older guys who tell the truth. I love it when he gets slightly irritated with the stupid questions and crinkles up his face in response. I watched it twice and laughed harder the second time!Priceless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The problem is that he's wrong about the Fed. He's believing their words rather than paying attention to their actions. The fact is that the fed hasn't created any new liquidity yet to speak of. Not saying it won't, but so far, it hasn't, and as I pointed out in Friday's Fed report in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition over the last week when they were making the most noise they cut reserves. Over the last two weeks they have cut their asset base by almost $12 billion. So watch what they do, not what they say. If the Fed continues on this path a lot of the commodity bulls like Rogers are in for a shock in the not too distant future. For this reason it is imperative to watch the Fed to see if its actions match its words, because if they continue this misdirection play for much longer, the hard asset bulls may be hugely disappointed. Rather than being religiously bullish about some asset class because of what the Fed is saying, I think that it's still crucial to follow the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The problem is that he's wrong about the Fed. He's believing their words rather than paying attention to their actions. The fact is that the fed hasn't created any new liquidity yet to speak of. Not saying it won't, but so far, it hasn't, and as I pointed out in Friday's Fed report in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition over the last week when they were making the most noise they cut reserves. Over the last two weeks they have cut their asset base by almost $12 billion. So watch what they do, not what they say. If the Fed continues on this path a lot of the commodity bulls like Rogers are in for a shock in the not too distant future. For this reason it is imperative to watch the Fed to see if its actions match its words, because if they continue this misdirection play for much longer, the hard asset bulls may be hugely disappointed. Rather than being religiously bullish about some asset class because of what the Fed is saying, I think that it's still crucial to follow the charts. 651680[/snapback] you da man Doktor Stuhl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The problem is that he's wrong about the Fed. He's believing their words rather than paying attention to their actions. The fact is that the fed hasn't created any new liquidity yet to speak of. Not saying it won't, but so far, it hasn't, and as I pointed out in Friday's Fed report in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition over the last week when they were making the most noise they cut reserves. Over the last two weeks they have cut their asset base by almost $12 billion. So watch what they do, not what they say. If the Fed continues on this path a lot of the commodity bulls like Rogers are in for a shock in the not too distant future. For this reason it is imperative to watch the Fed to see if its actions match its words, because if they continue this misdirection play for much longer, the hard asset bulls may be hugely disappointed. Rather than being religiously bullish about some asset class because of what the Fed is saying, I think that it's still crucial to follow the charts. 651680[/snapback] We've been through this stuff with Rodgers before and not too long ago. I suspect he knows all the added liquidity stuff is stool but he spouts it perhaps because it serves his purposes, meaning it helps his trades. When and if the Fed starts really monetizing they will mostly it seems be replacing what is being lost. If that finds its way into commodities or whatever in the real economy remains to be seen. He should be directing his ire at the FCB's or the Saudi royals perhaps. We are still waiting for someone, besides us, to discover that they have thrown hundreds of billions in the toilet buying dollar denominated GSE paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Stoolhouse Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The problem is that he's wrong about the Fed. He's believing their words rather than paying attention to their actions. The fact is that the fed hasn't created any new liquidity yet to speak of. Not saying it won't, but so far, it hasn't, and as I pointed out in Friday's Fed report in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition over the last week when they were making the most noise they cut reserves. Over the last two weeks they have cut their asset base by almost $12 billion. So watch what they do, not what they say. If the Fed continues on this path a lot of the commodity bulls like Rogers are in for a shock in the not too distant future. For this reason it is imperative to watch the Fed to see if its actions match its words, because if they continue this misdirection play for much longer, the hard asset bulls may be hugely disappointed. Rather than being religiously bullish about some asset class because of what the Fed is saying, I think that it's still crucial to follow the charts. 651680[/snapback] Doc- couldn't agree more. I've been actively trading the gold stocks since 2001 and almost every spring you can count on major bullishness followed by an intermediate term top and a correction that lasts until fall. I have been trading like a madman the last couple of weeks because of your excellent commentary. I take profits very quickly and am paranoid about holding overnight. The juniors and exploration companies I own I am comfortable holding for 2 years or more as that was my intent from the beginning. On Puplava's show this week he states that he believes that the Commodity sector is taking the place of the Bond market vigilantes in sniffing out inflation.Interesting times! Thanks for the commentary Doc! Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Correll Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 THIS MEDAL COMMEMORATES THE YEAR 1907 WHEN JP MORGAN HALT THE SPREAD OF NY BANKERS PANIC.BY WORKING WITH THE U.S. TREASURY EBay Item# 300207162832 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Has anyone spoken to the operational issues of getting paid on trades if Bear Stearns had gone down? Doc, you said they clear 50% of the internet traders. Do we know how that would have played out for trades they could not, at least in theory, have honored those claims. I am ignorant in how this would have worked out if the Bear had been allowed to sink. It seems like a good thing to know, especially if others are expected to follow, which I certainly do. And if so, does the Fed step up every time? When does the derivative king JPM, topple under the weight of trying to save all the counterparties? Should we be using a particular trader or platform within Schwab, for instance? Is it worth discussing or are they all at equal risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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