Jump to content

Monthly Digger - March 2008


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 450
  • Created
  • Last Reply

My investment club:

 

They were primarily chartered accountants. The club was formed in the mid-70's when most of them were articling students to C.A. firms. So they all traded fundamentals. As the years went by, non C.A.'s were admitted to the club, including myself.

 

It's a "men" only club.

 

Right now it's a very diverse group, despite its origins. About 25% are retired, some are entrepreneurs, some are CFO's, 2 are lawyers, 3 stockbrokers, and only one member engaged in the private practise of accountacy.

 

I joined in the spring of 1987. I warned them of a "crash" coming. They ignored me, so I've always been a perma-bear and Goldbug in their eyes.

 

Over the years, I've talked about charts and done some power-point presentations to the group. There have been only a few converts to t.a., however.

 

These guys are very savvy when it comes to local politics, legislation, and general economic trends.

 

But they sure are wrong about the markets.

 

Right now, we're long financials and rails for the last year. Of course, they invested for yield, I guess, due to the aging demographics of the club. These investments are off about 25%. We took recent positions in the Oils, adding to prior positions, so we're about even.

 

But once a month, 20 out of 25 guys get together, have a few beers, have a good supper, and pontificate about the market. Four times a year we have major social events--a golf tournament, a christmas party, an eco-adventure (lately a one day canoe trip or a leisurely bike ride), and a trip to a Broadway play in Toronto) with our wives.

 

That's been more rewarding than the lost profits that I've sustained.

 

If you're not a member of a club, join one or form one. I've had a great time over the last 20 years, socially, though it was hardly rewarding, economically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something new

 

New Deutsche Bank ETNs provide leveraged, short exposure to gold

 

"Deutsche Bank (DB), which already manages several ETNs, listed the new gold offerings on the NYSE Arca. They are DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ), DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP) and DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ)."

http://www.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/R...&Source=ETFNews

 

or

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080229/etf.html?.v=1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hadjin

Read Sinclair

Everybody is short the juniors and long the mayors

I have no doubt that is because it is the only way of buying a junior cheap paying with the shares of a mayor  :lol:

648117[/snapback]

 

We have to be at the end of or very close to the end of the bullish cycle you have alluded to these past few months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Goldcorp:

 

A weathervane for the Indices.

 

We could see a small pullback in a tiny 4th wave over the next few days.

 

The horizontal lines are the usual fib retracement levels for wave iii from February 13th to the 28th.

 

Note the massive support at 39 - 40. Former resistance, gap support, maximum retracement level, wave iv of the prior impulse....etc. If it heads back to thst level, it's a gift.

 

There are still more 3's of 3's ahead.

648143[/snapback]

 

HUI 460-465 would be a nice place to reload ya think?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To post I use public charts as the one attached

My own charts go back to pre 1999

All periods were 12 months as measured by the modified slow stochs

I modified the stat parameters myself

There was once an inversion with a period of 18 months

According to this tool I am now ready to sell 10-20% ala Sinclair this month since chances are 8 out of 9 that this month is a peak and one out of nine that it will go on for another 6 months

My 107 average daily fits perfectly in this model and like I said I will use three types of RSI to give the second warning and volume or momentum for the actual day or hour to sell . I now got a realtime pc based trading system I use two times a year . One time to sell and one time to buy back.

As you can see on the charts buyback time may be brutal and swift :ph34r:

post-1584-1204462794_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ageka, this is an election year, which may skew the market til may. in addition to the inflating the cbs are doing, the election adds fuel to the fire as lots of $$$ is spent to publicize the candidate. i expect the broads will bottom this month, which could lend support to the pms.

for me, we are @ the base of the parabolic, there still will be corrections. they will be short in time and could still be deep in price, they are gifts. @present, i still think this run has more to go.

as for the juniors, they are obviously speculative and that phase comes a little later in the game. their gains will be outstanding.

all the drivers for the gold bull are present in spades, as long as that is the case, this is the back i want to ride. rest assured that few will ride the back of the bull. there will be verying reasons to get out. the real money is made sitting on his back. dharma

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As with PMPIX, I take any profits from it and buy minor miners. I just might start doing that with the few majors I have like GG since I end up owning the minors the hard way when GG buys them out.

 

Seems like they tried to keep the lid on silver and now it's near $20. The announcement of selling gold by the world banks took gold to the $1000 threshold (just like Sinclair said it would). If you didn't play and catch the the last correction in gold you'd be paying a high price to get back in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like I said

I expect to get the signals to sell 10% in the next 30 days

If it keeps going up after I sold I do not care

If it comes down 20% from the peak which would be 10% higher then today and I buy back I have an extra 3% yearly gain

I play my statistics safely and I have to do this not to die of boredome

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...