dharma Posted February 1, 2008 Report Share Posted February 1, 2008 somehow, when i am here, i just go for long walks on the beach and keep to myself. but next time! i would love to meet you 3! dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSixPack Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 Well, I?ve arrived. It was inevitable at some point, .. .. Question now, I suppose, is whether my arrival signals a peak in precious metals prices or simply a way station on the path to greater glory. I?m banking on the latter, .. . The truth is that I?ve been lurking on this board since Thor was a fish. I?ve benefited a great deal from the wisdom of those on this site and thought it was time that I acknowledged your collective contribution to my Schwab and 401K account balances, .. . A little about me first, though, in way of introduction. I started trading stocks just before the dot.com bust, .. My timing could not have been worse, and looking back I?m still astounded by my trading naivet?. I work at a large semiconductor firm, so naturally gravitated toward the technology sector, .. Thought that late 90?s growth would continue unabated, .. Obviously a big mistake. Goes without saying that it didn?t pay to be ?long? technology stocks early this decade. Good news is that my cumulative losses should offset capital gains well into the future so very few tax worries, .. . Dabbled in Gann theory, waves, cycles, etc., but ultimately found price, volume and divergence to be the only factors that drove any degree of trading success. I finally stumbled upon precious metals in ?03, found the bullish argument compelling, purchased core positions in physical gold/silver and mining stocks and haven?t looked back. I?ve found that buying dips is invariably more profitable than chasing breakouts, at least in this sector, so I add when panic dictates and sit tight otherwise. Borrowing from PS, I?ve ?lashed myself to the mast? awaiting the eventual parabolic blow-off top. Without sucking-up too much, I do want to offer a few thank you's. First to GM, TCG, and dharma, without whom I would have undoubtedly lost my nerve at various points and sold long ago. GM, I?m in awe of your technical skills, and your conviction is contagious. Dharma, never thought it possible, but you almost have me believing that there?s something to this astrology nonsense, .. . BV, you?re one of the best Ellioticians I?ve come across on any board, but I?ve never had much success trading with them. I?ve always found wave counts better confirmers of the past than predictors of the future. TFH offers a nice counterbalance to the rampant bullishness on this site, and Charmin, without you, I suspect there would be no board for me to visit. Shouts out as well to Ageka, Meta, PS, Agent Smith and apologies to those I?ve missed. All told, the best gold board I?ve found anywhere. Course I haven?t looked too hard, .. . JoeSixPack No clue where we're headed next, but I'm in for the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 the thing that is worrisome to me right here right now, is the divergence(rsi) in spot gold. xau/hui have none. we could have a correction to adjust for the divergences in gold. silver is sporting one too. now, i have time left for the up phase, but the divergences are disconcerting so i am reporting what i see. dont shoot the messenger. if we do top here, it would be 5of 3 and wave 4 which could go down to the mid 700s. no, i am in no way shape or form a bear. it doesnt matter to me what i thought, i try and let the market talk to me. and its saying the divergence in gold/silver is saying momo to the upside may be spent. of course if these highs are taken out. then this report is for naughtdharma 642128[/snapback] dharma while painful for those holding onto long positions for the long term I think your scenario is probably the healthiest thing for the current pm market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 Welcome Joe6Pack. FWIW no one here is any more bullish longer term Gold than I am. Just trying to maximize ounces by getting out from time to time. I agree that this is by far the best Gold board anywhere. The time to hold tangibles is here. Like most will tell you most of the surprises in this sector will be to the upside. Where we might disagree some is whether it is wise to hold the majority of assets in physical form or in paper Gold and Silver. Good luck going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 2, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 Another little bit of analysis on gold prices versus gold stocks at Prudent Trader. http://www.prudenttrader.com/ptltr020208.html Noteworthy volume for SLV may indicate a change and I have noticed since SLV came on board back in May 2006 that every three months there is the potential to see it appear. August 16 November 8 February 1 http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1201970886.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 Welcome JoeSixPack I did my weekend work and it looks like the buy and keep them guys like me are going to weep several weeks sometime in the future I am now 92.5% long and looking to reduce by a little bit more my exposure Sofar I have lost nothing on the part I sold and that in itself is an indicator I see a rotation in stocks which is normal but fascinating like the money that flowed into Drooy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted February 2, 2008 Report Share Posted February 2, 2008 welcome joe 6, actually, when you started was a very instructive time. having experienced a major top, is an invaluable experience. all tops in commodities end in parabolic blowoffs. this gold top will be no different. and when we are in the parabolic, divergences wont matter. nor, will when you bought matter, the key will be to be on board. if, and its a big if, we start correcting here, the next wave up will be wave 5. (its one of the main problems w/elliott, put 10 elliotticians on a market get 10 different counts.) any way, wave 5 is the blowoff in commodities. the crb came right up to the highs and backed off friday!! no matter what happens here, this bull still has alot more expression to go. and unless things are different this time(and i dont think they will be), the miners are due to become the next internet stocks of this decade. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted February 3, 2008 Report Share Posted February 3, 2008 welcome joe 6, actually, when you started was a very instructive time. having experienced a major top, is an invaluable experience. all tops in commodities end in parabolic blowoffs. this gold top will be no different. and when we are in the parabolic, divergences wont matter. nor, will when you bought matter, the key will be to be on board. if, and its a big if, we start correcting here, the next wave up will be wave 5. (its one of the main problems w/elliott, put 10 elliotticians on a market get 10 different counts.) any way, wave 5 is the blowoff in commodities. the crb came right up to the highs and backed off friday!!no matter what happens here, this bull still has alot more expression to go. and unless things are different this time(and i dont think they will be), the miners are due to become the next internet stocks of this decade. dharma 642204[/snapback] Nice to see you Joe! Speaking of Internut stocks, if only one of my miner positions goes the way of JDSU, well let's just say Skidmark would reevaluate his day job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plantigrade Posted February 3, 2008 Report Share Posted February 3, 2008 Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and platinum rose to records in London as a shortage of electricity in South Africa forced mining companies to shut production. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=worldwide640438[/snapback] http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...45285&sn=Detail"For weeks, homes and businesses have been dark for hours a day while failed traffic lights have caused accidents, leaving many in Africa's biggest economy angry at their government. "If some of the mines get flooded, you can't save them," said Jacobsz at Gold Fields" These high-cost South African deep mines supposed to profit by a rapidly increasing margin from higher gold prices, instead seem stalked by Peak Everything, and might end up unexploitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2008 Bearvest, it's your turn Do we have a silver peak here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted February 3, 2008 Report Share Posted February 3, 2008 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...45285&sn=Detail"For weeks, homes and businesses have been dark for hours a day while failed traffic lights have caused accidents, leaving many in Africa's biggest economy angry at their government. "If some of the mines get flooded, you can't save them," said Jacobsz at Gold Fields" These high-cost South African deep mines supposed to profit by a rapidly increasing margin from higher gold prices, instead seem stalked by Peak Everything, and might end up unexploitable. 642252[/snapback] Several years ago I sold Stilfontein Turned out the value dead was more then the value alive because of the landholdings If I had not sold I would have gotten more from the closure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted February 4, 2008 Report Share Posted February 4, 2008 Barrons Bullish on GOLD: http://seekingalpha.com/article/62778-gold...?source=d_email contrarians will shout oh no, but i think the public is waking up. the powers that be may just want to smack new devotees on the head here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2008 A momentum swing signal fired on friday Feb. 1 for GLD to short at $89.35. I'll keep an eye on that one. The long signal for GLD was entered on Dec. 27 at $81.56 and exited on Jan. 31 at $91.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted February 4, 2008 Report Share Posted February 4, 2008 As everyone looks to preserve their cash and won't even worry about the return on investment in coming months, volatility will be rampant as they jump in and out of different vehicles looking for safe haven. I'm not sure where the powers to be want to herd the cattle, I'm not even sure the powers to be know the trail. Strap yourselves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted February 4, 2008 Report Share Posted February 4, 2008 Somewhere the next 60 days I expect a smackdown of 20% on gold and/or the miners I plan to sit it out with close to 90% invested cause it might be fast and brutal in two directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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