GregFokker Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 Low volume, slow action, waiting... then.... WHAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 I'm bored....When does the next downleg start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 AXP missed their Revenue numbers. Didn't they warn a week ago? How they miss that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benny Hoo Hoo Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 The stock market has become nothing more than a method of betting on interest rate policy. Why bother making things anymore? Just lower the rates to zero so that everybody can get rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benny Hoo Hoo Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 Heck, if they are just gonna' lower 'em again, why did they bother raising 'em in the first place. What the hell did they think was gonna' happen when they raised 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 at 6 AM Eastern, somebody started placing market orders to buy e-mini S&P futures in lots of 100, they bought approx 5,000 contracts I'd guess at 9AM Eastern, somebody started placing market orders to buy e-mini S&P futures in lots of 500, I'd guess they bought at least 20,000 contracts that way that set the tone for the day, execution of trapped shorts all day long gov't showgoose fer GW's speech, see it's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 The stock market has become nothing more than a method of betting on interest rate policy. Why bother making things anymore? Just lower the rates to zero so that everybody can get rich. 640813[/snapback] except reamtiress tryin' ta buy Alpo with their C.D. interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elh Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 As one of our Stoolies pointed out this morning, interest rate policy is just a ST inconvenience. The far more insidious issue is the taxpayer-funded bailout of the financial services industry, as is currently happening in the United Kingdom. What is happening there is so disturbing that it should make you turn yellow. This is no mere efficient resolution that the RTC did after the S&L crisis. This is a perpetuation of bubble politix, and will use public resources to enrich the few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 Here's the updated chart of FOMC meetings going back to 1999. Red arrows are rate cuts, green arrows are rate increases, and blue arrows are no change. The black arrows point out emergency meetings and rate cuts. (please note that the arrows are as close as I could get them to the actual weekly line, but some may have shifted when it was uploaded. Close enough for government work). A couple of interesting points: during the last bear, the rate cutting campaign was only for 1 year in 2001. Then they basically sat by, with the exception of one rate cut in 2002 and one in 2003. Raising rates didn't start until 6 months after the SP regained its moving averages. Interestingly, I did not know they had an emergency cut on 1/3/01. That was the first cut after the market topped. It was around the 1300 level, which, incidentally, is where we were last week when they did the emergency cut. Hmmm.... Here's what they said in the 1/3/01 statement: "These actions were taken in light of further weakening of sales and production, and in the context of lower consumer confidence, tight conditions in some segments of financial markets, and high energy prices sapping household and business purchasing power. Moreover, inflation pressures remain contained. Nonetheless, to date there is little evidence to suggest that longer-term advances in technology and associated gains in productivity are abating. The Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future." (bold is my edit - I thought that was funny compared to today) 640792[/snapback] Great work CB! I kept feeling as though everyone was saying under their breath "Yeah, right <_ whenever i posted that rate cuts were bearish. this is a great illustration and can tell you as recall it was common feature of past bear markets well. there any way easily take the arrows on chart point them in direction change up or down sideways for no change. like to your two posts post best capitalstool.com front page wse.> Your data also gave me the thought that it would be fun to go back and look at past Fed statements and see how GDP growth and CPI did in the quarter following the statement to see whether the Fed's crystal ball was any good. I kind of doubt it. It would be a huge project, but if we went back to the first rate increase in 2000 and started from there, it would give us some idea of the Fed's competence in guessing right, or even influencing the economy at all with its actions. If any of you have any ideas on how to take this on, let's talk about it. Maybe we could start a thread in LOB and do it as a group term project for this semester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 The stock market has become nothing more than a method of betting on interest rate policy. Why bother making things anymore? Just lower the rates to zero so that everybody can get rich. 640813[/snapback] That is what Cramer has been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benny Hoo Hoo Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 except reamtiress tryin' ta buy Alpo with their C.D. interest 640816[/snapback] But hey, this is a free country that we live in, and they are free to invest in the stock market. Nobody's sayin' they can't, aren't they. It don't get much freer than that. Land of the free, home of the greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 elh- In case you missed my post this morning, kudos on a great job on your blog. You make crankiness, gloom, and doom fun again! And I think you are getting it right and cutting the bull in a way that few others can! Oh LAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 As one of our Stoolies pointed out this morning, interest rate policy is just a ST inconvenience. The far more insidious issue is the taxpayer-funded bailout of the financial services industry, as is currently happening in the United Kingdom. What is happening there is so disturbing that it should make you turn yellow. This is no mere efficient resolution that the RTC did after the S&L crisis. This is a perpetuation of bubble politix, and will use public resources to enrich the few. 640820[/snapback] Privatize the PROFITS, socialize the LOSSES" Is this really what Socialism is all about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 at 6 AM Eastern, somebody started placing market orders to buy e-mini S&P futures in lots of 100, they bought approx 5,000 contracts I'd guess at 9AM Eastern, somebody started placing market orders to buy e-mini S&P futures in lots of 500, I'd guess they bought at least 20,000 contracts that way that set the tone for the day, execution of trapped shorts all day long gov't showgoose fer GW's speech, see it's all good 640815[/snapback] Take a look at a 5 min GLD chart. I can't copy it on the Stool. At 1055, normal slap down time , it went sideways for the rest of the day, Can't let GLD keep rising since there is no inflation. a real hocky stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elh Posted January 28, 2008 Report Share Posted January 28, 2008 I'm a dick and an asshole. I freely admit it. Muzzling me messes with my creativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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