GregFokker Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Snowstorm in the northeast. Bully seemed to like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Here are a couple of charts to chew on. They are up-to-date as of last week. The first is a comparison of the DOW 1929 crash to the Nasdaq 2000 crash. The second is the present on the Nasdaq v. the Dow in 1937 (compliments of the Chicago IBD group) Of course, history never repeats itself, but it often ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokahay Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Looks like Doc needs to add some $99 price tags to his "Two Buck Chuck"! http://www.news.com/8301-13580_3-9849949-39.html?tag=newsmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Here are a couple of charts to chew on. They are up-to-date as of last week.The first is a comparison of the DOW 1929 crash to the Nasdaq 2000 crash. The second is the present on the Nasdaq v. the Dow in 1937 (compliments of the Chicago IBD group) Of course, history never repeats itself, but it often ... 637346[/snapback] That means this market will trend down for the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linrom Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Here are a couple of charts to chew on. They are up-to-date as of last week.The first is a comparison of the DOW 1929 crash to the Nasdaq 2000 crash. The second is the present on the Nasdaq v. the Dow in 1937 (compliments of the Chicago IBD group) Of course, history never repeats itself, but it often ... 637346[/snapback] The scale on 1929 vs Nasdaq is inaccurate. The DOW advanced about 700% from 1915 to 1929, 54.63 to 380.33 on weekly close in 8/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Speak Thanx for the response on silver,Appreciate it very much.. And as a loyal infidelitous Gold shtunk I agree with your call on Big G for the following reason- AS Gold is many things to many people--Standard of Value,Commodity,among a list of catagories too long to recite--it also serves as a "capacitor' or "reservoir" both of which smooth the flow of"current" in some sence.. By large overwhelming current.analogically, I mean the occasional violently disruptive selling that occurs from time to time. So under he assumption we are in the naborhood of a violent downturn (notice I say assumption) there are those who are going to be glad they purchased gold for the reasons above and acting opposite to posessing it, because at the time, this group of sellers will be that portion of gold shtunks needing the cash desparately and having something salable.. In essence serving as a capacitor. Subsequently it will bounce when everything else is descending beardrech I do beleive in the baby and the bathwater phenomenae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 OMG. The economy is in even worse shape than I thought. Now we have retailers giving 'pep' talks. All we need now is for these guys to don the chicken suits and I have seen everything... Meanwhile, economists are debating whether the United States is headed for a recession. Goldman Sachs said on Monday that it "now expects a further softening in consumption, which will likely tip the U.S. into a mild recession" during the middle of this year. In the face of so many headwinds, Gymboree Corp's (GYMB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) CEO Matthew McCauley tried to give the crowd a pep talk during his keynote speech. He told of a time during a high school football game when he got scared and ended up getting trampled by an opposing team member. He said his coach yelled at him, telling him to never ease up because, "when you ease up, you get hurt. http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1441324320080114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted January 14, 2008 Report Share Posted January 14, 2008 Centro down another 30% today in OZ. They bought a shitload of malls in the US right at the top of the property bubble. They wanna hope the retailers 'pep' talks work well (and fast). Malls will be the new ghost towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 Speak Thanx for the response on silver,Appreciate it very much.. And as a loyal infidelitous Gold shtunk I agree with your call on Big G for the following reason- AS Gold is many things to many people--Standard of Value,Commodity,among a list of catagories too long to recite--it also serves as a "capacitor' or "reservoir" both of which? smooth the flow of"current" in some sence.. By large overwhelming current.analogically, I mean the occasional violently disruptive selling that occurs from time to time. So under he assumption we are in the naborhood of a violent downturn (notice I say assumption) there are those who are going to be glad they purchased gold for the reasons above and acting opposite to posessing it, because at the time, this group of sellers will be that portion of gold shtunks needing the cash desparately and having something salable.. In essence serving as a capacitor. Subsequently it will bounce when everything else is? descending beardrech? ? ? I do beleive in the baby and the bathwater phenomenae 637353[/snapback] A capacitor or reservoir, that's it exactly! I was interested in cwd's comparisons today of the metal and miner indexes. I did up a crayon drawing just now and present for your consideration. I have been thinking of spending more time and capital on GLD because it felt like the metal was doing better than equities. But in fact, they do trade pretty much in tandem. GDX tends to overshoot thus there is more lever to it if you can grab the exact bottoms. I know that's what I do. Every once in a while, anyway. From August, GLD looks to have completed a 5 wave up structure and I would expect either an abc or abcde correction somewhere in here to the 80-84 level then resume it's uptrend. On the weekly it appears to me that when this 5th wave finishes it will also be the terminus for wave 5 of 3, of the larger wave structure. If I'm wrong and this is my alternate count, this could be wave 5 of 5, which could entail a larger sort of correction. I'm trading both sides here but have more on the don'ts shortterm. I don't know what will happen next, just playing the %'s as I see 'em and being cautious. My new year's resolution is to keep more of what I make this year than last by taking more judicious profits instead of getting it ripped away, especially in miners. There may come a time and it may be close where the PTB and associated Pigmen will be tooo busy saving their own booty(s) to bother helping to quash metals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 THE WORST OF THE WORST IN DECENDING ORDER Home Builders - complete loss Mortgage originators - complete loss Banks - 30-50% haircut Retailers -30% - 50% haircut Building Materials - 30-50% haircut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 Centro down another 30% today in OZ. They bought a shitload of malls in the US right at the top of the property bubble. They wanna hope the retailers 'pep' talks work well (and fast). Malls will be the new ghost towns. 637356[/snapback] I think CENTRO has it's picture in the new eCONomic DICKshunnery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itiswhatitis Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 Gold appears over bought. Thinking about GDX puts. Any other ways to play a pull back? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 everyone in OZ is talking about the housing affordability crisis and the resultant rental crisis. It appears people cant afford to buy or rent a home. something has to give. I suspect the property market will implode under its own debt burden. I do remember everyone talking about the water crisis in OZ,especially Queensland. There were level 5 restrictions,talk of compulsory water tank installations,infact water tank suppliers were popping up like Starbuck stores.People were starting to panic. Then what happened?? It started raining and hasn't bloody stopped. Rainfall could smash records BRISBANE has already exceeded its average January rainfall in the first two weeks of the month - as north Queensland continues to faces severe floods. Locals in Airlie Beach in the Whitsundays are bracing for yet more heavy rain today after the monsoon conditions wreaked havoc across the region yesterday. Brisbane has already recorded 124mm of rain in January - outstripping the monthly average for the entirety of January of 120mm. And rain is forecast for the next six days until at least Monday of next week. With more heavy falls, Brisbane could be on track to pass the highest recent January total of 280mm in 1995. The city received 279mm in 2004. http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...753-952,00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 Centros biggest problem is that most of their malls and shopping strips are 'b' grade. The are anchored by cheap 'costless' chains and $1 type stores that sell absolute rubbish. These shops selling cheap frivilous shit will be the first to go bust. Not that it matters much as Centro is dead in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoBear Posted January 15, 2008 Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 The scale on 1929 vs Nasdaq is inaccurate. The DOW advanced about 700% from 1915 to 1929, 54.63 to 380.33 on weekly close in 8/29. 637352[/snapback] Sorry, I guess I should have explained that the charts are scaled so that they both peak at the same time at 100%. Look at the point your referencing in 1915 and then move out to where the bottom undercuts it in 1932. It is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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