Charmin Posted December 31, 2007 Report Share Posted December 31, 2007 Happy New Year. Health and Happiness to all goldbugs. That's all I really have to start the new year off with. I'll be watching CDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted December 31, 2007 Report Share Posted December 31, 2007 Indeed, It will be a Happy half a New Year for the bugs. I suspect it will be another "Sell in May" year like 2006. If my count is correct, we're in a very tiny wave 2 of 3 of a possible 5. The downdraft should be short and sweet---not more than a week or so. Then buckle up for a real ride up. Get ready to get long in a big way. XAU 195.50? We're not going to head there and re-test several times. We're going to catch our breath in the next week and leave all the onlookers in the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 CDE: I have a large position in CDE. Price and on balance volume are out of sync. One or the other requires correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 Happy New Year to all I agree with you Bearvest but make it Sell in April 2007 was the first year my 3 Canadians outperformed overwhelmingly my 3 Souths Africans ( probably because of the exchange rate ) anyway no complaints on 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 For my own benefit, I've taken stock of my long positions in the miners. I'll share my thoughts with you. AEM is a market outperformer. A $2.00 daily move in this stock is commonplace. If you look at a longer term chart, you'll se that it bottomed in late May of 2007, not August 16th. Between May and August, MACD rose sharply in wave 1 (and what I believed was also waves 2 and 3). I added long on August 16th, in what I thought was wave 4 or a large irregular correction. I sold in late Seprember as price had reached into the 50's but MACD had merely reached its July highs. I put on 2 successful short trades in November at $52 on the 2 unsuccessful attempts to fill the gap. Wach was covered at $48. Last Wednesday, when Gold broke out, I had my wish list in place. AEM was first on my list due to the positive MACD divergence. I had to chase it and was ultimately filled at 52.50. It fell on Thursday and my Fib time counts called for a market peak on Thurday of Friday. I sld an "in the money call" at 3.60 capturing what I believe will be a significant time premium. I expect the stock to retace to the low $51 range. It looks like 5 waves are in. Although it and CDE were the only 2 HUI components to rise Monday, I find comfort in the doji in support of my planned execution. I'll buy back the calls there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 GG: GG has always been my core holding. I've owned it for several years and got more when it merged with GLG. On the November 14th gap fill I sold December 35's against part of my position. I covered the balance of my position in late November. I was disappointed with MACD, so I sold the stock and bought back all the options in early December at $34. I made 1.57 per option and faced a large capital gain on my core sale. I relaced it last Wednesday at 34.10. Under Canadian tax law, a sale will be ignored if the security is re-purchased within 30 days. On Friday, I wrote January 35's on my stock position at an average $1.17. I expect to re-purchase the calls for 25 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 EGO: It was on my watch list due to its positive MACD divergence. I simply bought it above its downtrend lne on a breakout. I'm less enthusiastic about it now that I'm an owner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 My view of CDE is simply that anything inside a large trading range between $3 and $7 can be out of wack with volume and price as it gets manipulated. What is notable is a supply line break in early November with volume and price. If it was just short covering, then I'd expect a pullback, but if supply was exhausted back in mid August, then it has the potential to rise back to $7 with price and volume out of wack. That's why I'm a Wackoff trader. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1199209880.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 Doesn't anyone chart spot or future gold? Or the US$? This precious metal bull could run for years in parallel with a commodities' bull. Only three months ago we had a decisive move and came back down and below for a retest. Good trading weather with all the movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Private Skidmark Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 If you hold bullion like me (or an ETF like GLD) and pay US taxes, you probably detest the fact that realized gains, long and short-term, are taxed federally at 28% like other collectibles, art and antiques, for instance. Well, there are bills in both the US House and Senate that would have bullion treated no differently than equities for capital gains tax purposes. These bills have been introduced before and not gotten far but maybe if we make a concerted effort to give 'em an earful, this time could be different. The bill is worded identically in each house. It's called the Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investors Act. The US House bill is H.R. 2883, sponsored by Rep. Shelley Berkley of Nevada. (Is that a mining state? ) The US Senate bill is S. 1546, sponsored by Sen. Michael Crapo of Idaho. (I've heard something about mines there, too. ) With the gains we bugs anticipate over the next few years, it sure would be a nice time to get this relief. So, if it's important to you, contact your representative and senators and let them know you care about the issue and want these bills passed. Please feel free to spread this around to other metals forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 NEM: It powers the indices, although ABX now has a significant weight in both XAU and HUI, having closed out its forward book. Like the indices, it has found that the 50 sma has been a significant challenge. Like the indices, it has an apparent 5 wave structure since the December lows (an apparent opening diagonal as 4 overlapped 1--not the most bullish of starters.). A doji for Monday's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 GOLD and the Miners: The Miners are, in my opinion, at a very early stage of a correction which, I believe, is wave 2 of 5 up. GOLD, by contrast, appears to be in a 4th wave correction of an impulse up. In other words, it has not, like the Miners, completed an impulse up. It could result in an extension of the rally in the Miners. Or it could result in a small correction to GOLD to the $820- 25 level followed by a huge 5th wave in GOLD and a corresponding rally in wave 3 for the Miners. No one in the Miners is anticipating this. But I've posted my warnings about 5 waves in, a 61.8% correction in many stocks, and the upper resistance at the 50 day line. Show me anyone who hasn't predicted in his or her 2008 forecasts that GOLD will exceed $850.00 this year. We Canadians know how to paddle a canoe. And the fisrt thing that you learn is that when everyone leans to the same side, the canoe is succeptible to tipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 Nice jump in spot gold this early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 US rocket opening on HUI and XAU after the official stick save on the monthly slow stochs (note on the chart made yesterday that somebody traded on the first of january starting a red candle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 Weekly doing nicely too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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