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DrStool

Stoolie Market Survey- December

On December 31, 2002, I think the SPX will be closest to:  

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Feel free to reveal your vote and state your reasons! :blink:

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crystal ball not working well for near term. judging by paucity of posts this is not an isolated phenomenon. would've said 900 but i ouija'ed it and got 950.

 

what do you get when you throw al, santa, and donald bradley in a sack and throw them down the chimney together?

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I think I'll extend the closeing date to 12/15.

 

Vote now!

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I think S&P support around 880 will be tested this week, then the option expiration rally will begin and carry S&P back up toward 900 where it will flatline until Jan 1. This assumes the Iraq target practice is postponed until after Christmas so the depleted Uranium rain machines can be fully loaded prior to the turkey shoot.

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News only impacts the market for a day or two. Even something out of the blue only impacts the market for a week. Such events are inherently unpredictable, as is their market impact. Hurst proved conclusively that news does not move markets. Trends and cycles do what they are going to do regardless of wars, pestilence, famine, ass ass inations and the like.

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Doc, you got another Bell curve. I went to a Fissure Investments presentation and they presented 'evidence' showed that the outliers were what came thru, not the ding-dong part of the bell. Which side outliars, there's the rub, but if you only have to beat an index you chose, not make a profit maybe you can take your time in deciding which outlier to choose.

 

Meanwhile, with only 2 weeks to go, maybe the ding-dongs will be right.

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I picked 800. I have a cycle chart that is at least a month old but it isn't too bad and it indicates a 11- week and a 22-week cycle low on the QQQ's both to hit around January 1st. In a normal month I would expect a somewhat lower reading. I expect OE to complicate any read. Seasonal factors such as Christmas rally expectations and window dressing are positive factors. Today, the 15th, my work indicates I am slightly more bearish than on Thursday so I expect Monday to start the week lower. This is a tough market and the best I can do is guess tomorrow. I don't understand the previous unusual strength and now the unusual weakness in the dollar. It appears to be being manipulated but the goal escapes me. It turned weak prior to "bad" news. The market and certainly the gold seems to following its movements. :unsure:

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The verdict is in. A plurality says 850. The weighted average response was 862.97. Doc will post the winning number on December 31.

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