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aussiebear

IDS World Markets Fri 9th November 07

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t?s=%5EAORD

 

 

All Ords +0.9% but the action is half-hearted. Sectors are all over the place with IT leading, +3.4% followed by Materials +2.1%. There's a swag of reds with minor losses; Property Trusts and Consumer Staples are down the most, -0.3%.

 

In the miners, RIO way up thanks to the BHP interest. RIO +16% and BHP -0.9%. Golds are mixed: Newcrest +0.6%, Newmont -1%, Lihir -0.7% and juniors are flat.

 

Oils treading water: Woodside +1.9%, Santos and Caltex -0.4%.

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Bank of England Keeps Key Rate Unchanged at 5.75%

 

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a six-year high, with policy makers resisting calls for a cut on concern that rising oil and food prices will fan inflation.

 

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, left the bank rate at 5.75 percent, as predicted by all except three of the 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Most expect a reduction in February.

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w?s=%5EAORD

 

 

All Ords eked out an 0.6% gain but overall it was pretty weak. The only supports were RIO and the IT sector with the latter showing a result of +10.5%. Not sure what was driving IT but on the index chart it looks like a dead cat. Energy did quite well, +2% and Materials closed +1.6%. Consumer Staples dropped the most, -1.1% followed by Telecomms -1%.

 

Miners mixed: BHP -1.8%, RIO +15.4% and in the golds Newcrest +3%, Newmont -1% and Lihir -0.7%. Some of the juniors took off but the majority are still getting set up for their streak north (hopefully).

 

Oils: Woodside +2.9%, Santos +0.4% and Caltex -2.8%.

 

A dog's breakfast in Asia ranging from Honkers +1.5% to Singers -1.8%.

 

 

Over to UK/Europe:

 

t?s=%5EFTSE

 

t?s=^GDAXI

 

t?s=^FCHI

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

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Co-ordinated cliff dive in euroland and USA futures right at 5:30 Stool HQ time.

 

What happened?

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Co-ordinated cliff dive in euroland and USA futures right at 5:30 Stool HQ time.

 

What happened?

622576[/snapback]

 

people woke up.....

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Co-ordinated cliff dive in euroland and USA futures right at 5:30 Stool HQ time.

 

What happened?

622576[/snapback]

 

people woke up.....

622577[/snapback]

 

:lol:

 

There is a newsnoise item:

 

Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year Low

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer confidence plunged in early November to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina battered the Gulf Coast and sent oil prices soaring in 2005.

 

The RBC Cash Index showed consumer confidence fell to a reading of 64 this month, down sharply from an early October reading of 80.6, when consumer sentiment was on the upswing as the stock market stabilized temporarily following a turbulent August.

 

Economists said conditions are being exacerbated by renewed problems in financial markets as investors have become worried by a string of huge losses reported by some of America's largest corporations, including General Motors, Merill Lynch and Citcorp. These sobering earnings reports are raising concerns about how many more billions of dollars in losses have yet to be announced.

 

There also are worries about the fall in the value of the dollar to record lows, which makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers, and a big run-up in oil prices, which briefly traded above $98 a barrel this week. Since August, crude oil prices have soared by 42 percent.

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anybody know where docs market report is from last night?  I'm always curious where cycle status sit.....

622575[/snapback]

 

 

Well, once again, I had the report written by 7PM last night, but forgot to press the "publish" button. :angry:

 

Anyway, it's there now.

 

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/stocks/market110807.pdf

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Understatement of The Year Candidate:

 

That's all changed as the rating companies have slashed their assessments of thousands of subprime mortgage-backed securities. That's had an especially severe impact on a class of CDOs backed by low-investment-grade securities. According to J.P. Morgan research, several CDOs had over 80% of their underlying collateral affected by the downgrades or reviews. The Aaa tranches on some of these CDOs were subsequently cut by multiple notches -- some to junk -- days after the mortgage-backed securities downgrades.

 

"There will be a lot of chain reactions," says David Yan, director and head of CDO research at Credit Suisse Group.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1194573447...todays_mkts_tac

 

 

If there's been one constant so far in this mess, is that all surprises have been negative, not positive.

 

I'm willing to bet that trend will continue for a while.

post-1762-1194613920.jpg

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Co-ordinated cliff dive in euroland and USA futures right at 5:30 Stool HQ time.

 

What happened?

622576[/snapback]

 

people woke up.....

622577[/snapback]

I posted that I had covered a bunch of puts. That did it. Everyone knows to fade me.

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We are currently looking at an opening potentially at yesterday's lows, but with positive divergences on most of the 3 and 5 day cycle indicators. As long as the market holds where it is for the next 70 minutes, that should lead to another pop. However, an open below the lows with the indicators dropping could be signaling the beginning of a crash. Crashes occur when markets break down from already Dover Sole levels. That's where we are right now.

 

If the lows don't hold here I would be thinking about shorting with a stop just above yesterday's lows.

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8:40 (Dow Jones) The trade deficit narrowed to a $56.45B shortfall in

September from a downward-revised $56.80B in August (had been $57.59B.)

Exports increased by 1.1%, while imports increased by only 0.6%. Oil imports

decreased by 7.0% due to a 6.4% increase in barrels and only an increase of

$0.42 per gallon to $68.51. These data are far better than expectations and

imply a much smaller deficit than the $59.1B the Commerce Department assumed,

so, 3Q GDP is likely to be revised to in excess of 5%. (JJM)

 

8:30 (Dow Jones) Fed funds futures move higher, as ongoing credit concerns

and a weakening stock market causes traders to price in increased expectations

for more easing. Dec contract fully priced for FOMC to trim the funds rate 25

BP to 4.25% at the Dec. 11 meeting, with a less than 10% chance for a further

ease to 4%. Recently at 95.685, up 1 BP. Feb last up 3.5 BP at 95.94, also

fully priced for 4.25% at the Jan. 29-30 FOMC meeting, with about a 76% chance

for a 4% rate. That's up from Thursday's Feb settlement, which priced in about

a 62% chance for 4%. (HLP)

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