DrStool Posted November 3, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 its tough to go long buying calls and stock reading this Message board but I do it. Psychologically its tough. That is also why I read bull blogs and Message boards to get balance. Too many stocks making new highs and we are only a couple % from all time highs. I am long QQQQ's right now and some other stocks .... 620441[/snapback] I'm glad you brought that up. That's the beauty of the internet. We're about the "opposing point of view." No one here has any problem with scalping on the long side. Just about all of us do it. And many of us have been long certain sectors for a very long time and continue to be long those sectors. But that has nothing to do with our longer term perspective on the big picture. The financial system is in trouble and a lot of people are in their little denial cocoons about it. The only thing that we expect here is that we post respectfully toward one another, even when we completely disagree with my viewpoint or anyone else's. That's what makes this such a great community. Collegiality, camaraderie, and fun. If you're nice, I don't care what your position is. Those who are abusive in any way are not welcome. It's bad karma. I only want good karma. I've kicked out just as many bears as bulls over the years over abusive posting. That's a fact. So we get to have harmony here, and the folks that are unhappy with me still get to attack and complain vociferously. But not here. No one here wants to be attacked or abused or belittled in any way. I try to make sure that they aren't. I love that about the internet. We all get to read and write whatever we want, whenever we want. We just can't write whatever we want wherever we want. But you can usually find a place that fits you. I'm happy with this board. I love it and I love the people who contribute their thoughts. You are a great bunch of people, and I consider you my friends. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrosie Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 its tough to go long buying calls and stock reading this Message board but I do it.? Psychologically its tough. That is also why I read bull blogs and Message boards to get balance.? Too many stocks making new highs and we are only a couple % from all time highs. I am long QQQQ's right now and some other stocks .... 620441[/snapback] I'm glad you brought that up. That's the beauty of the internet. We're about the "opposing point of view." No one here has any problem with scalping on the long side. Just about all of us do it. And many of us have been long certain sectors for a very long time and continue to be long those sectors. But that has nothing to do with our longer term perspective on the big picture. The financial system is in trouble and a lot of people are in their little denial cocoons about it. The only thing that we expect here is that we post respectfully toward one another, even when we completely disagree with my viewpoint or anyone else's. That's what makes this such a great community. Collegiality, camaraderie, and fun. If you're nice, I don't care what your position is. Those who are abusive in any way are not welcome. It's bad karma. I only want good karma. I've kicked out just as many bears as bulls over the years over abusive posting. That's a fact. So we get to have harmony here, and the folks that are unhappy with me still get to attack and complain vociferously. But not here. No one here wants to be attacked or abused or belittled in any way. I try to make sure that they aren't. I love that about the internet. We all get to read and write whatever we want, whenever we want. We just can't write whatever we want wherever we want. But you can usually find a place that fits you. I'm happy with this board. I love it and I love the people who contribute their thoughts. You are a great bunch of people, and I consider you my friends. Keep up the good work! 620443[/snapback] It is human nature to adopt the opinions of those you read to much of so I do agree with bondtrader about how hard it is to find anything to be bullish about. I think the best one can try to do is when deciding which camp to be in, you simply have to let your gut hear all arguments and decide which one seems to be more contrived and full of weak spin. Frankly, the bull arguments have seemed like that all the way through this 5 yr run so I can't see how we got here....and there in lies the beauty of cycle analysis..... It wuold be interesting Doc, to put up a forum, a collection if you will, of bull arguments so we could examine them fairly and promptly pick them apart. It just seems there is, and has been, a confluence of factors that makes things seem really really bad going forward. There are so many, it is hard to pick one, but living here in GA, the lack of water may be the worst of all of them. The drought all over this country is just another inflationary factor. On another note, I do believe this community to have some of the smartest market people around. You've created a great place doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 3, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 Tanks rosie! There are so many bullboards out there, we don't need another one. I tried that several years ago, and things got really out of hand. It turned out to be a bad idea. We do plenty of picking apart of the bull arguments here, and that's just fine. LeeWhee was a master of picking apart any flawed argument. We as a group now have to step up and fill in the blanks that he would have filled in for us. Another great place to see the bull arguments refuted is on Russ's and Juan Carlos's blogs in the WSE. The links to their articles can always be found over in the left sidebar. As far as hearing the bull arguments, all you need do is turn on Crapvision or Faux News. As for bullish websites, there are thousands. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrosie Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 Honestly doc, as I was typing that I realized that we do pick them apart here....and a good job of it too, but they do make it easy. LOL I do watch crapvision for entertainment puproses. I find myself laughing at so much of those bull reasonings...sometimes it is really funny when someone says something and then they get a look on thier face as if to say, "did I really just say that?" ...they no they are grasping at straws but they do it anyway because they realize so many listening will probably believe it. One thing I found very intersting was a few months ago when I heard Batapaglia say he was bearish on Faux. I thought it might snow in the middle of summer next. BTW, I think the key in todays report is the failed buy signal on the 17 RoC. ...a big sign I think..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 We interrupt this important discussion for an even more important event! World Toilet Summit gets down to business http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21594491/from/ET/ I Love the Stool..... thank you Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_Slim Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 Hey Doc, Anything else you heard from your Canadian contact? I read somewhere today that the "powers that be" think that the ABCP problem will be solved by Christmas. Sure . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FauxCaster Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 Please identify the "emergency board meeting" from history that was good news for both the company and its shareholders. 620345[/snapback] There was a poor church in rural East Texas that happened to be sitting on a recently discovered oil field discovered in the 1930s. They had an emergency board meeting. God didn't need the money so they split it with all current church members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 copper and gold are 2 very different commodities: copper is an industrial metal gold is a monetary metal the fact that copper is not going up says alot about building& auto sales, i dont look @copper to determine what i should or shouldnt do w/gold! dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 potato head i never heard from your fund!? dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 I see Shorty is absent. Only could mean he is working on short positions for next week. Drano was probably just early on a Amazon and APPL falling. Google which Doc calls a cult stock acting like a momentum stock looks shaky. The banks are on the brink like WaMu. Walmart must have pre-ordered xmas goods based on June numbers. Crox just got the memo about xmas being cancelled. TIF, Target etc, just no front running there, looks sick. We could be nearing levels to bounce from, I don't think so. Even if stock values don't correct here the US$ will take of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 Doc, it has to be a setting like mic is clicked or some such thing. I used 'sound recorder' on YouTube and it worked fine. The new program might have loaded default settings to allow it to work correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 To all my fellow Stoolie's who are sitting long Gold -- consider taking a little off the table, or at least, please be very, very careful and use trailing stops to protect your capital.? ? ? 620366[/snapback] Appreciate the advice, and you absolutely may be right. But on the flip side of the coin (no pun intended), I'd also like to note that for the first time in my 5.5 years of buying gold, I took some off the table at 731 and 745 last month, because I thought gold was too high in the short term. I took that money and QQQQ '09 and '10 puts, respectively, because I think the Nasdaq is too high PERIOD (as does anyone with some sense left in them). It could still pay off on the long run, but obviously, my timing was WAY off, as we weren't anywhere near the high for either of them. On another note, I sold most of my Jan '09 puts in Merrill and immediately moved the money into Jan '10 QQQQ puts. Buying low and selling high can be tough to do (see previous paragraph), but by having financial stocks going way down while tech defies gravity, the pigmen (or whomever) are making this too easy! 620370[/snapback] Sometimes it's better to get out and leave some money on the table, than to overstay your welcome and get caught in a downdraft. I guess how you manage your affairs depends on how much time you can devote to sitting in front of your computer. I'm heavily short the Q's via the ETF QID. I know that sooner or later, the wheels are comin' off the Market's wagon -- and my theory is the higher the techie stocks rise, the farther they'll fall. The hardest thing for me is finding the patience to sit tight and wait when I see other things happening. It ain't easy... especially on days like today. The ETFs SRS and SKF are hot. FWIT, I'm very bullish long-term for commodities, especially the precious metals. But I fear that there is a deflation dead ahead that will temporarily knock prices of equities and commodities down a substantial amount (which would make the Fed very happy as it would boost the USD at the same time). The major monetary inflation, IMO, will come AFTER a deflationary crash, as the Fed responds to cries of anguish from crushed citizens and businesses. 620374[/snapback] Before you commit capital to the short side you may want to wait for a technical signal from something like the WSE. It makes me sleep a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 Could be a sideways move in industrial metals as a temporary slow down for demand occurs, that would account for lower pricing in copper. This oil/gas thing is really gonna hit home as the pump price nears $4. Almost an unknown how people will react. Scary. 620400[/snapback] The problem with oil now is worldwide consumption is about 2mil bpd more than production. The question how high does the crude price have to get, to destroy demand to bring it inline with available supply? A peak in world oil production under 85 million barrels daily (mbd) now looks like fact and supports our buy recommendations of oil and gas producers. Each new monthly compilation of U.S. government statistics confirms that the rising trend of global oil production ended in 2004 contrary to market expectations. At the same time, forecasts by government anal cysts, generally in line with investor expectations, keep climbing with targets of 85, 86, 87 and 88 mbd released in September 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively (see chart World Oil Supply Forecasts). http://www.mcdep.com/mr71002.pdf also IEA site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 ....... There is no other fund in the country set up like this...... 620429[/snapback] The Merkin Gubmint has confiscated Gold and Silver in the past. What makes anyone think they would NEVER do it again? When Buffet took delivery of his silver, he did it in England, outside the reach of the Merkin Gubmint. CEF has physical, is audited and trades in the USA. They keep the bullion in Canada, again, outside the reach of the Gubmint. 620433[/snapback] I think I will buy some more CEF Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted November 3, 2007 Report Share Posted November 3, 2007 ... But I have studied every possible avenue and this is by far the best solution. I will debate that with anyone. Holding metal outside the country is a waste of time if you are not going to live there....... 620435[/snapback] For an increasing number, the "best solution" is to Escape from America Oz is not a bad place to live. There's others. 620436[/snapback] My wife won"t go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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