Astonishingly Well Run Companies

[cwd]

This came from the GATA tin hat guys who have been proved right over the years. Yes there is a PPT.

This article is from a piece written by Ron Kirby.

I had forgotten about the national security aspect of the banking crisis.

 

Getting back to Sabre's observation about J.P. Morgan and why their predicted demise never seems to materialize. First, folks should understand the VERY SPECIAL relationship J.P. Morgan has always been understood to have had with the Federal Reserve. Amongst financial [banking] industry insiders, J.P. Morgan has long been considered an extension or agent of the Fed who operates in the 'free market'. We should all remember the existence of this little tid-bit I previously reported on which became public knowledge in early 2006:

 

Of course then again, maybe J.P. Morgan's blow out quarter where they conducted 5.5 Trillion [old number from 06 ? latest quarter, Q2/07 is 10 Trillion] new notional in derivatives had nothing to do with the precipitous drop in the price of natural gas at all. Maybe, it's just like authorities say, that storage facilities [that no one can practically see or measure] really are full. Maybe J.P. Morgan conducted all that trade to benefit shareholders. But I've got a sinking feeling that we'd never be told the difference if things didn't work out that way. That became abundantly clear when Dawn Kopecki reported in BusinessWeek Online in a piece titled, Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules,

 

"President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations. Notice of the development came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye."

 

So ? to directly respond Sabre's query ? It is quite possible that J.P. Morgan [along with a raft of other institutions] IS / ARE insolvent RIGHT NOW, and the clowns running the show won't tell us.

 

Don't you see ? as long as 'National Security' is an issue ? regulators are legally [cough, cough] not compelled to tell us.

[potatohead]

Listen up..... By 2010 DTC wants to move all certificates to electronic form. Right now, INTEL Corporation has only electronic certificates. There is no paper certificate for them. The idea of moving certificates out of a brokerage account is temporary. You need a long term solution. I have created that solution. As an Investment Advisor and a broker for 15 years I understand this situation. I saw it coming 2 years ago. That is when I started developing a fund that will hold gold and silver outside the financial system in a armored vault that is fully insured. This fund is approved for IRA's and pension and retirement plans as well regular and trust accounts. Foreign accounts are welcome as well. How it works for IRA's is that the custodian for the IRA holds my fund in name only. The money from the IRA is sent to the fund which buys deliverable form of physical gold and silver and holds those assets with an armored facility. The fund is audited and monthly statements are generated to each investor. There is no other fund in the country set up like this. If shit hit the fan the investor can receive bullion instead of cash. I am working with some of the biggest names in the precious metal business. They are all impressed with the structure of the fund. What we are about to see will be breath taking. But if you do not protect yourself properly you are doing a big disservice to yourself. I have seen individuals that have lost their certificates. All I can say is good luck with the transfer agent especially if it a small mining company. But honestly in 2 years it will not matter, the system will be electronic and paper certificates will be the thing of the past.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Here's an article on China's hydro-power projects. China dam plan threatens world's oldest irrigation system

Here's a reader's comment from FR's site.

The Yangtze (Yellow) river is so named because of the suspended silt. This alone is going to doom the Three Gorges Dam project and has already filled catchment and coffer dams upstream. Siltation is wreaking holy hell with turbines and lock machinery. The flooded cities, towns, villages and industries with their attendant toxic wastes only adds to the load. Run-off and direct drainage from discrete and diffuse sources are only icing on the cake. One of my former professors was a consultant on water quality issues hired by the Chicoms. Basically, he told them to pound sand if they went ahead with the Yangtze hydro project. Pretty strong position coming from a guy who was a de facto commie himself.

[beardrech]

I'm going to offer my counterargument to stock-certificate acquisition. I may be missing the point of the proposal, and if so, I hope clarifications will be offered. And I do so as a fellow gold-kook, though one of more moderate persuasions, I guess.

 

If you are sufficiently gold-kooky that you fear individually-owned securities held with major brokerage houses will prove inaccessible and untradable for months & years, then it seems the best method is to hold bullion only. 

 

I'll state that I, too, have been and remain bullish on gold.  And it wouldn't surprise me to see some *cough* "consolidation" in the financial services sector.

 

But I don't believe the whole equity-trading system is going to go belly-up for an extended duration.  There will be winners & there will be losers, IMO.  The winners will acquire the losers, with either tacit or explicit support from the USG.

 

Those winners will retain a strong interest in seeing that the routine capital market mechanisms (e.g., custodial arrangements, basic account access, ability to trade securities) is maintained, or at worst, reestablished pronto.

 

It is pretty much infathomable to me that were Schwab to go el-busto tomorrow, that all its clients would find their accounts frozen and their assets inaccessable for months or years.

 

Consider the letter Doc got today from Congressman Wexler (who I needlessly derided) about excessive bank charges.

 

I'm tellin' you that if Schwab goes down, U.S. Congressional Representatives will be descended upon by constituents in a manner of great national & electoral urgency, and there will arise from DC a great scurrying to make sure that access is maintained/reestablished.  And those Reps fearing the pitchforked masses of Main Street will possess allies on Wall Street.

 

Seriously: what good are certificates going to be if a potential buyer has to sit there on them, and otherwise has no where to deposit them his or herself, because the entire brokerage system is seized up? What do you expect to get for them under those circumstances? If the nation's brokerage assets are effectively shut down, where do you think a future buyer will produce the cash (?) to purchase them from you?

 

Under what I understand of your scenario, I would expect a substantial discount for any actual transaction that sees you placing those shares in your possession with another party, because: 1) Who even knows these days what an actual stock certificate looks like, and 2) In the event of a capital market collapse sufficient lock up these assets, where would a "market price" be found, 3) Where is the cash coming from, and 4) If those pieces of paper catch on fire, there is no claim on ownership, and therefore, any individual's ownership of them should be appropriately discounted for the physical hazard to which they are exposed outside the current digitized system.

 

This is why I went off all half-cocked on that POS Babbler Sinclair: he advocates a real tax event today in anticipation of an improbable worst-case scenario tomorrow that leaves one with certificates that I don't believe one will find easy to transact anyway, but is entirely exposed to physical destruction.

 

If you truly assign a high probability to the worst-case scenario, then one's portfolio only has room for: weapons, bullion, land, fresh water, seed, and self-sufficiency.

 

Scraps of paper suggesting one's partial ownership of some "publicly-traded" (whatever the hell that would have come to mean) company would be of no meaningful value.

 

Just one gold-kook to another.....

620388[/snapback]

 

Jimi

Thanx for your effort to prevent runaway paranoia on the board, for which I,as leading instigator, apologise.. Within limits of course....But the reason for expressing my forbodings is, first of all, the complete absence (to me at least) of any discussion with similar concerns anywhere else on the net...

 

Statitistically speaking, it seems impossible for a complete absence to be true; nevertheless,for some reason,the topic appears to be untouchable..

 

With that article in the finacial times about traders resorting to barter I just cant get the scenario of complete collapse out of my mind...

 

Your roster of motivating factors embodied in winners is quite plausible, but it's the time between the rupture and reestablishment that worrys me..

 

To tell you the truth, I despair of finding anything that will greatly reduce my anxieties, no matter how plausible, within your envisioened scenario...the reason being that we are up against a real criminal conspiracy of such magnitude that i seriously doubt a legitimate attempt at restoring some kind of integrity is feasable within a rational period of time....Coverups are to be expected, sufficient to delay any attempt at discovery leading to recovery

 

beardrech- I think we'lll be getting a premonition of things to come by closely watching the "Boyze" currently struggling to escape their own self-ceated entanglements. Unlike the announcement of the results at the end of the papal election at the vatican when a puff of smoke signals the termination of sorow and a new beginning I anticipate an endless slog through the mire...

[potatohead]

This came from the GATA tin hat guys who have been proved right over the years. Yes there is a PPT.

This article is from a piece written by Ron Kirby.

I had forgotten about the nation security aspect of the banking crisis.

 

Getting back to Sabre's observation about J.P. Morgan and why their predicted demise never seems to materialize. First, folks should understand the VERY SPECIAL relationship J.P. Morgan has always been understood to have had with the Federal Reserve. Amongst financial [banking] industry insiders, J.P. Morgan has long been considered an extension or agent of the Fed who operates in the 'free market'. We should all remember the existence of this little tid-bit I previously reported on which became public knowledge in early 2006:

 

Of course then again, maybe J.P. Morgan's blow out quarter where they conducted 5.5 Trillion [old number from 06 ? latest quarter, Q2/07 is 10 Trillion] new notional in derivatives had nothing to do with the precipitous drop in the price of natural gas at all. Maybe, it's just like authorities say, that storage facilities [that no one can practically see or measure] really are full. Maybe J.P. Morgan conducted all that trade to benefit shareholders. But I've got a sinking feeling that we'd never be told the difference if things didn't work out that way. That became abundantly clear when Dawn Kopecki reported in BusinessWeek Online in a piece titled, Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules,

 

"President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations. Notice of the development came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye."

 

So ? to directly respond Sabre's query ? It is quite possible that J.P. Morgan [along with a raft of other institutions] IS / ARE insolvent RIGHT NOW, and the clowns running the show won't tell us.

 

Don't you see ? as long as 'National Security' is an issue ? regulators are legally [cough, cough] not compelled to tell us.

620427[/snapback]

 

great post CWD

 

A trip to the statute books showed that the amended version of the 1934 act states that "with respect to matters concerning the national security of the United States," the President or the head of an Executive Branch agency may exempt companies from certain critical legal obligations. These obligations include keeping accurate "books, records, and accounts" and maintaining "a system of internal accounting controls sufficient" to ensure the propriety of financial transactions and the preparation of financial statements in compliance with "generally accepted accounting principles." READER COMMENTS

 

 

Here is the 2006 businessweek article

 

Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules

[alceringa]

....... There is no other fund in the country set up like this......

620429[/snapback]

 

The Merkin Gubmint has confiscated Gold and Silver in the past.

 

What makes anyone think they would NEVER do it again?

 

When Buffet took delivery of his silver, he did it in England, outside the reach of the Merkin Gubmint.

 

CEF has physical, is audited and trades in the USA.

 

They keep the bullion in Canada, again, outside the reach of the Gubmint.

[EZ_Money]

So, who's doing something exciting this weekend?

620413[/snapback]

 

If Russ Winter was back home, that might be just enough for him to try an' raise the level of Puget Sound a mil or two...

[potatohead]

....... There is no other fund in the country set up like this......

620429[/snapback]

 

The Merkin Gubmint has confiscated Gold and Silver in the past.

 

What makes anyone think they would NEVER do it again?

 

When Buffet took delivery of his silver, he did it in England, outside the reach of the Merkin Gubmint.

 

CEF has physical, is audited and trades in the USA.

 

They keep the bullion in Canada, again, outside the reach of the Gubmint.

620433[/snapback]

 

 

You have no claim to the gold and Silver with CEF.....you want to store your gold in England? go ahead.....try flying there when you really need it....Everything is paper gold that trades on the exchange. Yes your dollar value goes up on paper but owning the physical provides so much more security.

 

Confiscation will come in steps at that point I can deliver all metal out if need be or move it to a safe location. I have taken into account socialism and fascism. By the way USA never confiscated silver. All I am trying to do is create the best place to put your money. Obviously there is no perfect way... But I have studied every possible avenue and this is by far the best solution. I will debate that with anyone. Holding metal outside the country is a waste of time if you are not going to live there.

 

Ask yourself one question....Do you trust your life with the current financial system. If yes buy GLD and CEF...IF no then buy physical and take control of your own destiny...I would find it hard to believe that any store that would accept a share of CEF rather than actual metal. I have been very thoughtful in my approach. Please be careful.

[alceringa]

 

... But I have studied every possible avenue and this is by far the best solution. I will debate that with anyone. Holding metal outside the country is a waste of time if you are not going to live there.......

 

620435[/snapback]

 

 

For an increasing number, the "best solution" is to Escape from America

 

Oz is not a bad place to live. There's others.

[Jimbo]

THE STANLEY AND CHUCK TWO SHUFFLE

 

They wanted to go and quickly

 

They jumped

 

Why?????

 

So they can vest their options and get the hell out of the stocks before they become worthless.

 

Merrill and Citi need to be completely recapitalised.

 

1907 and all that

 

This bonk crisis is obviously fall streeeets way of celebrating the 1907 crisis.

 

Either that or that Kondratieff guy was onto something.

[DrStool]

Start>all programs>accessories>entertainment>sound recorder. Click the red button and it will record whatever you are listening to.

620394[/snapback]

 

That was the first thing I tried. It did not work. Neither did audacity. That's what surprised me. It's not like I am a newbie at sound recording. It's one of the trades I am a jackof.

 

But, as you can see from my opening post, the Jet Audio record feature worked fine. It was the only program that worked. I suspect that the reason was that youtube streams its files in flash, and sound recorder and audacity do not recognize that file format.

 

For you audio freaks, Jet Audio seems like a pretty nifty program. They have a free version and a premium version that costs a few bucks.

[DrStool]

Jimi is correct.

 

HOWEVER:

 

If you have an online broker who does not provide you with printed statements, make SURE that you print them out every month.

 

Schwab keeps asking me to use electronic statements. They would save a fortune on mailing trade confirmations.

 

But I want the paper trail.

620393[/snapback]

 

Let me clear a few things up for skidmark and others:

Doc is correct. If the firm youare with becomes insolvent, I can assure you there will be a few in line wanting to pick up the pieces. You will get a letter in the mail saying that "we now have your account".....

 

On an additional note skidmark, frankly if you hold the certs for your account your ability to trade are being tied up by you, not the firm....and they aren't even insolvent yet.

Getting your assets out of an ira, in cert form or cash, is a distribution from now til next tuesday any way you cut it.

If you are that concerned, then you should send your acount to a firm that you think will be okay. I'm not sure, but I do not think Schwab is in the mortgage business, so you are probably already in the best safest spot.......on the other hand, E*TRADE is in the mortgage business....so......

620405[/snapback]

 

 

Changed my Scottrade from Margin to Cash.

Scottrade checking also linked to Treasury Direct Account, other checking accounts also.

620412[/snapback]

 

There are some brokerages that do not trade for their own accounts and do not hold portfolios of toxic waste for their own accounts. They act strictly as brokers. I am not certain, but I believe Scottrade may be one. I would think that those firms would be safer, although as trading volumes fall, there will certainly be losses on the income statement. One would think that in a well capitalized brokerage only firm that they could withstand that.

 

So I think the think to do, if you are that worried about these things would be to keep your accounts with a firm that did not trade for its own account, and did not hold portfolios of toxic waste in its own accounts. Perhaps some of you could research that question and report on it here.

 

I have my own safe house, free and clear, in a little town in Quebec, 150 miles from the US border and 100 miles from the nearest big cities. I wonder if that's far enough. Water and energy supplies are all local, with hydroelectric (our town is nicknamed la Cite' de l'Energie because it had the first hydro electric plant in Quebec) supplied by the provincial government.

 

Our property is in a farming district, with all types of produce and dairy that can be canned and bottled for winter use. In a crisis, locals should be able to obtain basic provisions from the local farmers.

 

Local waterways are loaded with wonderful fish. The perch and walleye are unbelievably delicious, even when frozen fresh, and eaten a month later. Fishing is year round, with ice fishing in winter. There is no crime. Government, while inept and corrupt, seems to be able to deliver most basic services, other than allowing bridges to collapse at times.

 

Obviously, with a resource rich economy, and a government with a surplus, I don't foresee much problem with the Canadian currency in the near term. However, since I am paid in US dollars, there's some question as to whether I will be able to convert them into enough Canadian dollars to meet my needs. If worse comes to worse I can plant corn and produce in my yard. Water and fish will never be a problem.

 

I have already lost almost half my purchasing power since I began going up there in 1997. If US society does collapse, then I suspect no one in North America will be safe, and none of my preparations will matter. But disregarding that possibility, I suppose I should be moving my funds into Canadian accounts now.

 

Anyway, I am not one who believes that a worst case Mad Max scenario will play out, although I do believe things will get pretty bad here in the States over the next 10-15 years. I am pretty sure that large swaths of Florida's urbanized coastal areas will become crime-ridden, blighted wastelands, with hordes of armed and hungry unemployed people looking for trouble.

 

So I definitely want to have options.

 

Am I missing anything?

[Pacific]

Amazing call from Mr. Miller, Meanwhile over at LENNAR they are having mega trouble within their "urban development" unit......this was the division that was supposed to pick up the slack in the SFR market and create "new revenue streams" for LEN. Most of the talent in the Urban group has been laid off or fired...it is now being run for the most part by folks with little or no experience in this type of construction and their Orange County Towers are nothing short of a 100% disaster....the one currently under construction by the airport is Central Park West (CPW) and not only did they have to scale back the plan in a major way, it seems that they had to refund everyone's deposit (they only had 25-30 sold in a plan for hundreds of units) including an NFL player who was dropping a couple mil on a penthouse! Now they think they might just rent the units for a couple years until the market "comes back" LOL!!.....In the meantime they dug a huge hole and now don't plan to build on it for the forseeable future and it looks like ground zero. This was VERY expensive land and they might just get sued by their JV partner...(Or even Cali teachers who have funded the JV folks and will see their pensions swirl the bowl over madness like this)........BUY BUY BUY!! What about the "Great Park" in Irvine?? If they are rated "Junk" now......what happens with a few hundred million or billion dollar writedowns going forward?? Full disclosure I have no postion in LEN at the moment but have owed puts off and on over the last year.

[bondtrader]

Anyway, I am not one who believes that a worst case Mad Max scenario will play out, although I do believe things will get pretty bad here in the States over the next 10-15 years. I am pretty sure that large swaths of Florida's urbanized coastal areas will become crime-ridden, blighted wastelands, with hordes of armed and hungry unemployed people looking for trouble.

 

So I definitely want to have options.

 

Am I missing anything?

620439[/snapback]

 

 

its tough to go long buying calls and stock reading this Message board but I do it. Psychologically its tough. That is also why I read bull blogs and Message boards to get balance. Too many stocks making new highs and we are only a couple % from all time highs.

 

I am long QQQQ's right now and some other stocks ....

[potatohead]

Musharraf declares state of emergency, jams TV

 

we lose pakitsan shit will hit the fan out there...I mentioned this a few weeks ago.....do not forget they have nuclear weapons