BAREister Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 That's not a prediction. I know that LeeWhee would have enjoyed this. As usual he called the top. 616498[/snapback] haven't been around in a long while dropped in last night to c that there was some discussion of a top being called circa Oct 15 by a late member of CS and or Doc, long in advance of same? (Pun on 'long' intended, BTW... BARE called one this week, elsewhere. He directed his boon companion and market research assistant Igor to ring the bell three? days ago. Looks like Doc and or others beat him by a day or two. He thinks it's all downhill from heer. FUR yearz and yearz, too. If he's wrong you can laff at him all you want. You can laff, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schonthaler Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 Doc, Since it looks like we got a big program trade on Friday: What's the chance that this was a tactical sell, meaning that this was more about a concern over the credit issues, economy, earnings, valuations, oil, etc, as compared to a forced liquidation event? But on the flip side, I guess it does not matter, since a big down day has a chance of changing the longer term character of the market, if it continues? As recently as Thursday, your indicators did not fore-tell this kind of move - this soon. Could it be a possibility that short term indicators move back up, but then sinc-up with the longer term indicators, and then converge to roll-over for good. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 just got a call from a builder ( lennar )......they are calling to tell me that the house i looked at last month was reduced from 349k to 234k. 2400 sf,stainless,granite,biggest lot in development.....thats less than 100 psf.that puts it back to prices back in 2003. thats damn cheap i think......very hard to get a fully upgraded house for under 100 psf. any thoughts on me even considering this? 616600[/snapback] why don't you wait a while, until prices of everything are crushed/smashed to smithereens by the inexorable market FURces now at work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 just got a call from a builder ( lennar )......they are calling to tell me that the house i looked at last month was reduced from 349k to 234k. 2400 sf,stainless,granite,biggest lot in development.....thats less than 100 psf.that puts it back to prices back in 2003. thats damn cheap i think......very hard to get a fully upgraded house for under 100 psf. any thoughts on me even considering this? 616600[/snapback] I would not buy a house from Lennar under any circumstances. They sued and shut down a website that was a clearing house for buyer complaints against them. After spending $180,000 and ultimately being forced to act as his own attorney, the owner of the site, Mike Morgan, a friend of Mish's, was forced to give up the fight. Lennar successfully used the legal system to suppress the truth. Stuart Miller was BARE's law school classmate at the U of Miami. Looks like he's using that legal training! . I have been warning that some money market funds will be forced to break the buck. I have also frequently beseeched you to CHECK what's in your money market fund. This information is available in your most recent quarterly report and on the fund website. If there is any asset backed paper whatsoever, GET YOUR CASH OUT NOW! Time is running out. It may just be a matter of days. For the time being, put it in as many FDIC insured accounts in different banks as you need, but the best places are in 100% Treasury only money market funds, and the best of the best, Treasury Direct. Better find out what the ratings of your BANKS are, too. Weiss had a ratings service for banks years ago. Don't know if he still does. Used to get his promo routinely, predicting this or that crisis or crash. He was right, just a few years too early. BARE banks at Washington Mutual, cuz it swallowed up a small, women's bank he gave his biz to when he first moved to Seattle, and WAMU gives him free checking as a result. He's thinking of switching to Washington Federal, one of the ablest and most highly rated banks in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 You would think that after last month's rate cut that there is no support levels this time around since the shorts were chased out leaving a void for further falling. A 2.5% correction albeit in one day doesn't say much except there is volatility running amok. If the Fed again cuts then you can believe it is all about the bankers and nothing to do with the middle class earners in fact it would be a twist of the knife in the back of J6P. The events reflecting losses only began in August or so and are just now being reported by the money handlers, with controlled implosion you can multiply the losses x4 to represent the coming year's performances no matter what the Fed does because the bad debt will have to be absorbed. I agree with the wiener run scenario in as much, liquidity affects price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 I guess Hanky could buy bare land, drill a well and put a modular spec house on it using some kind of passive cooling technique. Then he would have a project to do in his spare time with a nice return of investment if he ever sold either that or buy a condo in town and walk to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 I guess Hanky could buy bare land, drill a well and put a modular spec house on it using some kind of passive cooling technique. Then he would have a project to do in his spare time with a nice return of investment if he ever sold either that or buy a condo in town and walk to work. 616656[/snapback] He just needs to gamble every day and see if he can get comped for a hotel room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 20, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 That's not a prediction. I know that LeeWhee would have enjoyed this. As usual he called the top. 616498[/snapback] haven't been around in a long while dropped in last night to c that there was some discussion of a top being called circa Oct 15 by a late member of CS and or Doc, long in advance of same? (Pun on 'long' intended, BTW... BARE called one this week, elsewhere. He directed his boon companion and market research assistant Igor to ring the bell three? days ago. Looks like Doc and or others beat him by a day or two. He thinks it's all downhill from heer. FUR yearz and yearz, too. If he's wrong you can laff at him all you want. You can laff, anyway. 616651[/snapback] MYGAWD!!!!! Look what the cat dragged in! I was having nightmares in my sleep last night, and lo and behold, ONE OF THEM HAS COME TRUE.. AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!! Good to see you, stranger. Now behave yourself, and don't let that ego of yours be too much of burden on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 20, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 Doc, Since it looks like we got a big program trade on Friday: What's the chance that this was a tactical sell, meaning that this was more about a concern over the credit issues, economy, earnings, valuations, oil, etc, as compared to a forced liquidation event? But on the flip side, I guess it does not matter, since a big down day has a chance of changing the longer term character of the market, if it continues? As recently as Thursday, your indicators did not fore-tell this kind of move - this soon. Could it be a possibility that short term indicators move back up, but then sinc-up with the longer term indicators, and then converge to roll-over for good. What are your thoughts? 616652[/snapback] Friday's move was surprising, but we were well positioned for it nevertheless. I said this the other day. "By the time you know for sure, it's usually too late". That's why I began getting short on Tuesday 10/9 and added on Friday 10/11, and why I closed out 80% of the long picks between October 11 and October 15, and was 80% short coming in to the day yesterday, with two of the shorts being double inverse funds. We were positioned about as well as we could be for yesterday, and have the gains to show for it. Similarly, got out of all of our gold stock longs by Wednesday of this week, but I don't short the precious metals stocks. Forecasting is tricky business. Trading is actually a little easier. When they hit price projections and key resistance levels within the expected time windows, sell 'em! Because you never know exactly when the big one is going to come. As for what's possible next, yes, what you have described is certainly possible. I have tried as clearly as I can to describe the near term and intermediate forecast expectations in this weekend's WSE Pro, and I invite everyone who is not already a subscriber to try the service risk free for 30 days. Just click the link below to get in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZ_Money Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 Barring an unforseen emergency, my lady and I plan to attend the memorial service for David M. tomorrow. Any other Stoolie wishing to meet-up there can leave a message here as late as 9am tomorrow. Let's come up with a plan. Doc, I've never been to Temple. Sport coat and tie O.K.? Anything else I should know to keep from embarrassing myself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 20, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 Barring an unforseen emergency, my lady and I plan to attend the memorial service for David M. tomorrow. Any other Stoolie wishing to meet-up there can leave a message here as late as 9am tomorrow. Let's come up with a plan. Doc, I've never been to Temple. Sport coat and tie O.K.? Anything else I should know to keep from embarrassing myself? 616660[/snapback] I think that would be absolutely perfect. As Drano said, it's Reform Congregation. Most of the ceremony will be in English with traditional prayers sung in Hebrew. It should be a beautiful and moving service. The music is really nice. Many Christian prayers come right from the Jewish prayer book, so you should feel right at home. But you may notice the absence of a certain "You Know Who" in the liturgy. I am sure that the tributes to David will be very moving. I will be there in my heart. Wish I could be there in person. By the way, Michelle sent me a photo of David that I have posted in his blog. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 Barring an unforseen emergency, my lady and I plan to attend the memorial service for David M. tomorrow.? Any other Stoolie wishing to meet-up there can leave a message here as late as 9am tomorrow. Let's? come up with a plan. Doc, I've never been to Temple.? Sport coat and tie O.K.?? Anything else I should know to keep from embarrassing myself? 616660[/snapback] I'm not Doc, but that will be fine. If they are somewhat traditional, the family will be sitting in a secluded or curtained-off area so they have some privacy in their grief during the service. Otherwise you'll see that it's going to be much like what you're used to. (Hopefully you're not TOO used to going to funerals.) Jewish funerals do NOT have open coffins, so no worries there. (I was at a Christian funeral once with a teen-ager, and he accidentally stumbled into the room with the open coffin. I've never seen anyone look so pale as he did after that experience.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 By the way, Michelle sent me a photo of David that I have posted in his blog. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/ 616661[/snapback] Surprisingly that's pretty much what I thought he would look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZ_Money Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 Barring an unforseen emergency, my lady and I plan to attend the memorial service for David M. tomorrow.? Any other Stoolie wishing to meet-up there can leave a message here as late as 9am tomorrow. Let's? come up with a plan. Doc, I've never been to Temple.? Sport coat and tie O.K.?? Anything else I should know to keep from embarrassing myself? 616660[/snapback] I think that would be absolutely perfect. As Drano said, it's Reform Congregation. Most of the ceremony will be in English with traditional prayers sung in Hebrew. It should be a beautiful and moving service. The music is really nice. Many Christian prayers come right from the Jewish prayer book, so you should feel right at home. But you may notice the absence of a certain "You Know Who" in the liturgy. I am sure that the tributes to David will be very moving. I will be there in my heart. Wish I could be there in person. By the way, Michelle sent me a photo of David that I have posted in his blog. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/ 616661[/snapback] Thanx again, Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZ_Money Posted October 20, 2007 Report Share Posted October 20, 2007 By the way, Michelle sent me a photo of David that I have posted in his blog. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/ 616661[/snapback] Surprisingly that's pretty much what I thought he would look like. 616663[/snapback] Thanx for the info, Drano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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