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aussiebear

IDS World Markets Fri 17th August 07

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Calling Mr. "Teets Long"........Calling Mr. "Teets Long"...."Come in please"....

 

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Wow.. Nikkei down over 5%! That's going to leave a mark and a funny smell.

 

There is so much financial nonsense to unwind. We are just getting started.

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Margin Man shaking those Yen out of customers.

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""It's because of the fear of the bankruptcy," said Ashmore, president of Irvine's Impac Mortgage Holdings, which escaped bankruptcy itself recently by shutting down virtually all its lending and laying off hundreds of employees.

 

"It's got my wife totally freaked out," he said. "I just don't want to deal with it. I don't care about losing 90 days' interest, I don't care if it's FDIC-insured -- I just want it out.""

 

Customers are thinking like the Tan Man himself, get mine now while I can !

 

"Give me back my Dollars! take your ameros up your ..."

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In the what were they thinking department.  Fine Paid.

 

Wanted a trip to Cuba?  No problem.

 

Travelocity.com paid $182,750 this month to settle a complaint brought by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Treasury Department, which said the company had violated the prohibition nearly 1,500 times from January 1998 to April 2004.

 

Travelocity gnome should do a commercial bit on this one.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/16/business...ravelocity.html

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I don't want to get political but US's Cuba embargo is a big hypocritical and witch hunting relic.

I mean what's the difference between China's lack of human rights and Cuba? The only difference between these two countries that matters for the people in Washington is the size of the economy. The poor will always be most affected by this, Fidel can always leave the country to fix his butt up.

And what about the scandalous law allowing importation of cuban cigars for the senators?

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Just a note of thanks to so many of you posters. I don't post because if I'm typing, I'm not learning ... kinda' like talking and not listening.

 

The reason for my post is that you regular posters make a reader look knowledgeable.

 

I had 2 flights this week where I sat next to financial market players. Flight 1, the guy was in commercial real estate for Societe General (Paris), responsible for certain US markets.

 

Flight 2, I sat next to David Dreman - like him or not, he's a player.

 

The point is that my education in market matters has been gleaned primarily from you folks and I had both guys assuming that I was an insider like them. I tried to let them talk lest they recognize me as an imposter and here is what they believe:

SG guy:

He's been waiting for the RE bust for 3 years. He believes that the commercial RE bust will be fully discounted and priced into the market in 90 days because that's their cycle. Prices are going down but it will shake out in 90 days.

Residential RE is a longer term process, he didn't take an authoritative position but said there were more lender blow ups to come.

Believes there is too much liquidity in the market and that results in the hedge fund and credit mania.

Fully boolish (to steal a quote) after the credit debacle is righted - no recession, all's good by year end.

 

Dreman:

Expects a significant number of hedge funds to blow up in the next 90 days.

Believes that Greenspan made "many mistakes and will be judged harshly by historical writers."

Believes that his principles of contrarian investing published in his book 10 years ago are more appropriate today that when first published.

Likes oil for the future, companies that have extractable oil in the ground, not services.

 

In the end, I eventually fessed up and they recognized me for the novice that I am but it was fun while it lasted, thanks to you and of course, Doc!

 

Back to lurker mode.

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Thanks for picking these guy's heads and sharing.

That 90 day meme is scary.

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You coulda shorted anything last week and made money.

 

Maybe you were too busy looking for longs.

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My thoughts are with Sudaca right now. We don't know if he was in the earthquake area or not. I hope that he and his family are all ok. Thoughts and prayers for all those affected in Peru.

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There's still a lot of information out there about repurchase agreements aka repos.

 

Yes, the Fed does repos, but their corner of the repo market is INFINITESIMAL. If your mmf is holding repos DO NOT think for one second that these are obligations of the Fed. Any financial institution or entity, financial, non financial, or otherwise can do a repo. MMFs do trillions of repos. They aren't guaranteed by anyone. If your mmf lists a substantial amount of repos on its balance sheet, GET OUT NOW, that is if you still can. Wire the funds to as many FDIC insured accounts as you have up to the insurable limit, and the rest send to Treasury Direct and buy 4 week T bills, regardless of the fact that the rate sucks. This too shall pass.

 

I am not kidding.

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Flood doors open

 

"Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75%, Cites `Downside' Risks

 

By Brendan Murray

 

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve, in an unscheduled meeting, cut the discount rate to 5.75 percent from 6.25 percent, noting market conditions have deteriorated since it last met Aug. 7.

 

``Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward, '' the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. ``The downside risks have increased appreciably.''

 

The FOMC left the overnight federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25 percent. "

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...90rc&refer=home

 

I've hear of fighting fire with fire, but fighting liquidity with liquidity? Choppers are going up.

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