Charmin Posted August 1, 2007 Report Share Posted August 1, 2007 I started last month off with the PMPIX gold fund showing a potential for a short covering rally after what appeared to be stopping action in the 36.50 area. That rally produced 10 points up to resistance and a 1/2 back retrace inside the trading range. What we have here is a little nest just below and our birdie popped it's head out to fly, but it just didn't have enough strength to break free. Now that we got out of the nest we have to flap our wings more to get airborne. If your a bird and scared of cats you will flap your wings. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1185941111.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted August 1, 2007 Report Share Posted August 1, 2007 Goldmining down 3.71 % in JSE Same on euronext Gold itself down 0.5 % in euro http://www.fin24.co.za/markets/Main.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted August 1, 2007 Report Share Posted August 1, 2007 this was my last post last month:on the hourly xau chart, the market tagged the .618 retracement and the 89itma from beneath. i think either the top has occurred or it happens today or tomorrow morning. bv, you and i are on the same page. as for the dollar, i see the potential 5 wave upmove from 05-06 and this could have been B and C up awaits. however, and i know B waves can go lower than the last bottom, however, i dont like the look of that. so, if the dollar get above 82 and change maybe the C wave scenerio comes into play. i am watching the metals, which i think look very bullish after this C decline. i am looking for xau 260 in the 1st quarter or 08. this venus retrograde is very important and should exert pressure on the markets til 9/08/07. dharma ps. i just wanted to add that in 05 the dollar and gold went up together. so, their inverse relationship doesnt ring true every moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted August 1, 2007 Report Share Posted August 1, 2007 i dont think A=C on this decline. i dont think xau will break 141. the gold/pms are holding up well. i dont think this decline goes very far or lasts very long. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted August 1, 2007 Report Share Posted August 1, 2007 i dont think A=C on this decline. i dont think xau will break 141. the gold/pms are holding up well. i dont think this decline goes very far or lasts very long. dharma 595486[/snapback] Close to PM Launch Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted August 1, 2007 Report Share Posted August 1, 2007 seniors may be holding up but my juniours have been led to slaughter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 Well goobs, I wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when I said that I was worried about this market. Also back in March I expressed my concerns the Subprime mess was being underestimated. This morning I caught a few more falling knives picking up some more of my favorites. We may not be out of the woods yet, so I'm employing stops on my recent purchases. Below is an update of the S&P 500 Index showing the 1555 July high .618 retracement bounce off 1440. gooberout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 Spot gold holding up extremely well today. It is not always a total whack job on all the miners. Either TRE or SLW or RGLD or one of my holdings will stay green during a slaughter. It just interesting to me. The miners have been acting kinda wild while spot is fairly tame. Makes me wonder if most miners have hedge problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 Here's my XAU:GOLD Chart Update for the March 2 post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 Goober, always a pleasure. Best, TCG 564226[/snapback] Blah Blah Blah . . . I think the important story not being discussed is the dire sub-prime mortgage and credit default swaps problem spreading/impacting the financial system/stock market/economy and emphasizing the need for the Fed to ease this summer. Combined, these growing problems are just too big to ignore. That puts the Fed in an impossible corner regardless of the inflation pressures everyone and his brother are currently focused. That is what the fed funds futures market is telling us, that the odds of a rate cut have dramatically increased from improbable to very probable within the next several months this summer. I wager the market will soon shift its focus/concern to this ripple effect on the financial markets forcing the Fed's hand. In the mean time, expect the usual tough on inflation "to support the dollar/treasuries" talk out of one side while the money pump continues out of the other side of the mouth. But don't take your eye off the biggest problem of all, the financial institutions (GSEs, Banks, Investment Banks, Insurance companies, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Municipalities, World Governments, etc.) are a house of cards extremely leveraged to this toxic paper and connected in such manner that a few big failures could bring down all the cards. The Sub-prime Mortgage Backed Securities are bad being marked to a model rather than marked to a real trading market, but pale in comparison to the much larger Credit Default Swaps market. This so called insurance, backed by nothing, marked to a model for its hypothetical value, has no real market. In other words, in the event this insurance will need to be exercised, who will guarantee it? If the domino effect takes place where one faltering bank takes out another which takes out another and so on, even the investment banks that wrote this crap will go under as their would be no market demand for it under such circumstances. The only lender of last resort would be the Fed and FCBs. The fundamentals teach us that the Fed's balance sheet is far too small to bail out such an event. The Fed's response against such a deflation scare would be to expand money supply like never seen before in US history. Ultimately, this would lead to hyper-inflation which is where the fundamentals are telling us we are headed. As I continue to warn, market volatility will continue to grow as these events take place. As usual, investors will run back and forth across the deck of fear and greed shouting sell!! buy!!, buy!! sell!!, inflation!!, no deflation!!, no inflation!! and so on. Yawn... Long term investors that follow the fundamentals accumulating Gold and "PM free shares" on the inevitable, significant dips will be well rewarded. I've posted a monthly chart several times in the past showing the 30-year T-bond:3-month T-bill yield spread ratio and its relationship to gold, HUI, etc. My view is that when "support the financial system/housing" rate cuts begin in the summer, the inverted yield curve will continue reversing to positive as the long rates rise from the inflation/financial turbulence/FCB diversification. Gold will continue rising in all currencies as FCBs devalue attempting to continue to support/arrest the slide in the $USD. The coming Fed re-inflation will eventually be ultra bullish for gold, ultimately bearish for the $USD. Expect volatility. Blah Blah Blah . . . 564844[/snapback] I guess this chart says it all . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudFox Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 I hope nobody here is still optimistic about the miners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 One more for the road . . . Double Bottom Bottoms Up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 i dont think A=C on this decline. i dont think xau will break 141. the gold/pms are holding up well. i dont think this decline goes very far or lasts very long. dharma 595486[/snapback] Funny thing. I looked at my charts and concluded just the opposite before I looked through this thread, dharma. There's no bullish divergence on MACD (though there's some on Stochastics). The "hair-triggered" histogram is still bearish. Not shown on the chart, XAU is still well above its lower Bollinger Band at 140. A=B at 136.78. Supporting your viewpoint, incidentally, is that wave "C" is almost precisely 61.8% of wave "A"---- the minimum requirement for a "C" wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 I hope nobody here is still optimistic about the miners. 595633[/snapback] Bud: Shouldn't your long orange channel envelope the July highs, dragging the lower channel of the envelope up? Likewise, wouldn't that place a higher level for the projection of the shorter term cycle? I'm interested because I gave up on an alternate count that I called a large "B" wave count when XAU took out the 148-50 level. The large "B" count would have called for a retracement back to the October lows at 117-20 in an irregular flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted August 2, 2007 Report Share Posted August 2, 2007 Warning: Ramble in Progress! For me, as my post on Sunday indicated, Monday/Tuesday was a Buy-Me-Now-Back-Up-the-Truck-Sales-Event! There were some excellent bargains and if we get the retest I expect next week, I would overload the truck w/ even more of my favorites. We most likely have just seen THE LOW since January for 2007 in gold stocks! It's important to buy the dips if the fundamentals and technicals are in our favor as they are now. And be sure to expect the many corrections to continue along with all the drama and dire predictions that will accompany them. As posted in past charts, I believe we're in the third leg of this bull market, and haven?t experienced anything resembling manic moves in the gold stocks yet. But that will change soon enough as the retail investors participate in their very predictable manic ways. The current bearishness/fear prevalent on the many gold sites including this one, are extremely bullish for gold stocks. ... I continue to focus on take-over-candidate-Juniors with proven and probable reserves, recent discoveries/adding ounces (table pounders per past posts). Going forward, it's high time for the juniors to outperform. Spec "swingin' fo' the fence / table pounders / multi-millionaire makers / back up the truck" stocks includes favorites such as ckg.v, sa.v, etc. Also continue to like companies that are projecting big percentage increases in estimated earnings such as Golden Star, Minefinders, Eldorado, Alamos, etc. Goobersout 566558[/snapback] Well, not much to add since last Friday. But I will say that I was a kid in a candy store this morning buying some more of my favorites gold/silver stocks, including mo' sa.v. Continue swingin' for the fence since August 2000! The bearishness, panick/fear emboldened my appetite. I paid particular attention to the XAU this morning hoping for the October 13th XAU gap to get filled and used that as my trigger to buy (gap almost filled). Also liked the divergence on several sentiment charts I follow. The gold stocks "up/down" volume ratio supports the creation of a major low here and now. The put/call ratio chart I posted last Friday showed the extreme bearishness of gold stock investors. After reviewing the data for the entire bull run since Nov 2000, 12 days has been the longest period of continued gold stock liquidation and put buying. Last Friday made 11 consecutive trading days and today we see a reversal! Again, as I said Friday, we are very close to a bottom and hope that investors here view this as a buying opportunity and NOT a panic selling necessity. Also, last night, I observed how the Asian markets retested but did not break below their prior lows (Nikkei, Hang Seng, Singapore Strait Times, etc) and the European sell off (DAX, CAC, FTSE, etc.,) was muted in comparison. This diminished selling pressure was a tip off of a potential reversal today in the markets. Tryin' to Sit Tight and Be Right! gooberout 567908[/snapback] ________________________________________ Update since early March: As posted in early March, my recommendation, SA.V, was one of the stocks I ?backed the truck up? with. Up a whopping 725% in just a little over 3 months. By the time of my second post, May 18th, it had already climbed 450%. 321gold jumped on the bandwagon on April 25th with a couple of touts. Today, I bought some more Southern Arc at the 1.40 level as I believe it?s about ready to begin leg III. I?ve uploaded the chart below. PS. Immediately after posting my SA.V reco on another web site that I frequent back in early March, posting my usual (for that site) full blown analysis, a new poster there said, ?I hope no one is bullish on Southern Arc here.? I thought to myself, What? ? did this guy not just see my 7 paragraph analysis? Is he blind? Anyway, today, immediately after posting several charts stating my cautious, renewed bullish stance on the miners, I heard similar words at this site reminding me of that. What part of "Close to PM Launch Area" is hard to understand? I had to chuckle! I take that as a good omen. PS. I'm cautious here w/ stops in place. We're catching knives here and best to stay out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat as the saying goes. gooberhasleftthebuilding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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