Annudder Day Annuder Day

[wndysrf]

My mom has some Alcoa in her 401(k) account w/ Morgan Stanley

 

I will be calling her tomorrow to instruct her to sell it.

 

Other stocks she owns: PFE, KO, JNJ, PG, ABT, PEP, BAC, XOM, COP, etc.

 

Typical widow and orphan stuff.

 

Thank god I didn't find any FRE or FNM in there.

 

[cwd]

Oil is going to 80 bucks. Analcysts are charging on the bearish side.

 

"Oil May Fall Next Week on Fuel Supply, Survey Shows"

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aPSLrlAA4p4c

 

RISE? ? ? NEUTRAL? ? FALL

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  15? ? ? ? ? 6? ? ? ? 21

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Inventory is one issue DEMAND is another which for some reason isn't mentioned anyway some information timely info from EIA:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

 

This Week In Petroleum;

 

EIA?s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released yesterday, projects that world oil demand will increase as the year continues. In the STEO, EIA projects global demand will increase by 3.0 million barrels per day between the second quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2007. Of this, OPEC is projected to supply 1.5 million barrels per day, with the rest met by additional non-OPEC supply and a drawdown of inventories. A recently released outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA) also points to the likelihood of tightness in the global crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters of 2007. In their report, the IEA raised its global demand forecast and urged OPEC to increase output

 

Despite projections of higher demand by EIA, the IEA, and many private sector analytical groups, OPEC has maintained that it has no plans to increase production in the third quarter, citing ample crude oil inventories. OPEC?s position is that geopolitical tension and limited refinery capacity are behind currently high prices. EIA data show OPEC-12 production in the second quarter of 2007 was 34.7 million barrels per day, 0.5 million barrels per day lower than OPEC-12 production for the same period in 2006, despite global oil demand increasing by 1.3 million barrels per day over this same time period. As a result, global inventories have been drawn down considerably, relative to normal patterns, over the past several months. EIA estimates Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) inventories, which have fallen sharply in terms of days supply since the beginning of the year, would be in the lower part of the 5-year average range by the end of 2007 even if OPEC producers increased output as projected by EIA in the second half of the year. However, if OPEC members do not raise production in line with estimates used in the STEO, EIA would expect more upward price pressure than is currently in EIA?s projected price path.

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Inventory, supply, demand... all valid places to look for structural changes and LT trends.

I was pointing out to the oil anal cysts sentiment survey done by gloomberg, which is more kind of a "who's long, who's short and by how much?" ST (weeks) trading indicator, although I'm not dissing the LT and structural view which can give you more comfort in going long black gold.

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I find it hard to believe that with crude at 74 WTI the notoriously greedy OPECers would not be selling all they could produce, much producing less than they did twelve months ago. Maybe we are at peak oil or at least near. As Don Coxe said, buy long live reserves in politically stable areas. Think Canadian oil sands stocks DYODD

[Benny Hoo Hoo]

On the liquidity/earnings debate - since the Federal Reserve has a printing press and the federal government has helicopters, why would liquidity ever dry up? I'm not trying to be hostile, I really don't know the answer but I assume there is one. I don't yearn for HyperTiger to come back and explain it to me, but I'm curious.

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Ask the Japanese.

 

The problem is that liquidity is really debt. Somebody has to be willing to take on the extra debt.

[cwd]

Picked up one of these yesterday for around 25k used,I highly recommend it!

 

2006 Audi A4 2.0T Quattro

 

 

http://www.caranddriver.com/roadtests/9478...0t-quattro.html

 

got rid of all my gas guzzlers waitin for 100 buck earl........

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I drove Audis for 18 years. I put 225K miles on the second generation Audi 4000 (yours is the 7th generation) and 180K on an Audi 5000 Quattro (A6 lineage). My 4000 weighed in around 2400 pounds and would typically get 37 MPG on a VW 1.7 liter engine and a 5 speed wide ration gearbox. You car weighs about 1,100 pounds more but still gets a respectable 31 MPG highway. In reading the description of the car, it looks like the 6-speed gearbox is a wide-ratio as well.

 

There's nothing like quattro drive in the snow. If you get any out your way, it can be fun doing really fast 180s in the snow by kicking out the back end (similar to an RWD vehicle). Quattros are amazing in the snow with the ability to lock two sets of differentials (at least the cars back then had this feature).

 

Perhaps you should get a radar/laser combo with that car if they're aggressive with red sports cars there.

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Mine is actually silver(I think....cant really tell,its kinda silvery beigy grey or something).Got a valentine one radar detector but i never use it because I just turned 40 last week and old people cant speed

 

I am trying to figure out why I need heated seats in las vegas

 

I actually sold my 2006 honda pilot with only 4k miles because I broke down twice.

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What happened to it? thanks

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Battery kept crappin out for no reason.dealer keeps sayin everything checks out fine.(if you let it sit for an hour it miraculously starts again,sometimes)got stuck 3 times in the last 2 weeks in the honda(once in 116 degree heat!).not even jump starting helped and had to have it towed once.Did some research on the internet and more than half the people with problems with the pilot,seem to have the same issue of getting stuck with a dead battery.Dealers told most of them the same thing,the car is fine

Apparently they dont want to admit there is an issue with the truck.I just don't have time to get jerked around and don't want to die stranded in the desert heat.I just thought I would be safe and get rid of it....traded it with only 4,200 miles on it.

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Thanks, I have an 05 Odyssey. I will be on the lookout for this problem.

This does not sound like a battery problem if starts working later. Some thing else in the electrical system I would guess.

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Had the same problem with my Accord. Just had same problem again day before yesterday.

Problem very simple - Battery connection. Couple of weeks ago had an oil change and they checked the battery.

Temporary solution is to wiggle the cable on the post of battery to get a connection.

Permanent solution is do a proper battery cable connection. Clean terminals........

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Sounds good.

[lineup32]

Think Canadian oil sands stocks DYODD

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what exchange is that listed?

[beardrech]

Dok

When you finish a post and the message is that you werent logged in but if you want you can save your post what do I have to do to recapture and post it?????

 

beardrech

[try2win]

Oh well, once a gambler always a gambler.

On 6/20 I started buying QQQQ calls. As of now I have rolled over profits and committed a total of $514.56. That will be it. I now have 17 QQQQ Aug 51 calls. The only reason I mention this is I really do believe we have started a geyser run and if so what better way to chronicle it than to share my pratfalls.

As I trade I will try to keep you updated as close to real time as possible.

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i hope good things for you and thanks for posting your trades. i see no down side in sight. but im a chart guy so things could change

[cwd]

Think Canadian oil sands stocks DYODD

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what exchange is that listed?

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Do you own due diligence,

[mmoy]

Dok

When you finish a post and the message is that you werent logged in but if you want you can save your post what do I have to do to recapture and post it?????

 

beardrech  

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On anything sizable and anything where I want to interleave answers in a reply, I use an editor. Usually emacs or xemacs.

 

On message boards, if you're prompted to log in, you can generally hit the back button on your browser and grab the text using the windows or other copy function and then paste it in later if you have to. Behaviour varies from board to board. On some boards, you will lose your message. Not sure what happens here. A small test should do the job.

[nymphcaster]

On the liquidity/earnings debate - since the Federal Reserve has a printing press and the federal government has helicopters, why would liquidity ever dry up? I'm not trying to be hostile, I really don't know the answer but I assume there is one. I don't yearn for HyperTiger to come back and explain it to me, but I'm curious.

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Ask the Japanese.

 

The problem is that liquidity is really debt. Somebody has to be willing to take on the extra debt.

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A Nobel Prize in Economics for Benny Hoo Hoo. More succinct and lucid than the other Ben on "inflation expectations" and imperfect anchors.

[mdporter]

Dok

When you finish a post and the message is that you werent logged in but if you want you can save your post what do I have to do to recapture and post it?????

 

beardrech  

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Your post is toast!

 

 

If you need to save in the future, copy all the text into a Microsoft Notepad or Wordpad file. Every windoze computer has these two applications. You can then save your items.

[Brisbane Bear]

I have to hand it to Windy,he is a former bear who has cracked the bulls code.

 

Very similar to Casinos who employ former cheats and hustlers to help run security or computer hackers who are employed by software companies to help design failsafe programs to deal with other hackers.

 

Maybe this type of analysis is the only way to beat these pricks.

 

Beat em at their own game.

 

Kudos Windy,you have been over this like white on rice.

 

[alceringa]

Claymore just started an NYSE ETF for the Kanuckistani Oil Fields.

 

Symbol is ENY

 

Semi-activiely managed-swinging 70%/30% between Trusts and Oil Sand players. Aggressive position is 70% sands and 30% trusts-defensive position is reversed.

 

Picked up a half position in the long term account and will likely leg in some more.

 

Personally, I like and hold HTE for the conventional/trust play and CLL.TO for the oil sands/future growth play.

 

Do your own DD.

 

[Jimi]

On the liquidity/earnings debate - since the Federal Reserve has a printing press and the federal government has helicopters, why would liquidity ever dry up? I'm not trying to be hostile, I really don't know the answer but I assume there is one. I don't yearn for HyperTiger to come back and explain it to me, but I'm curious.

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It's the credit equivalent of the saying from the old West.

 

"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink."

 

As Hip-Cat would probably intone, the growth of credit (and thereby, the maintenance of the current system) requires that individuals (who otherwise are doomed for the steaming drums of burning diesel...) continue to sign their names on the dotted line to secure debt and add yet further to the pool of outstanding debt obligations.

 

By thus signing their names, they create debt that serves to substantiate debt that already exists. That is, new debt becomes the "currency" that makes good previously created debt. One might go so far as to say that one person's debt is another person's income.

 

But I'm pretty sure Hip-Cat would growl ferociously at that claim, since: 1) He seemed to insist that any transaction that relied on debt as its source did not rightfully qualify as "income," and (because) 2) All transactions in the current system rely on debt at their origin, the concept of "income" rightfully earned was rare within the current system (which was headed for the drums of burning diesel anyway and because of that...).

 

So long as the system continues to create debt, or inflate (notably, in the extreme, according to the "mouse clicks" quote from him in my quote signature block), it can maintain the illusion of wealth and prosperity. But the only way it can do so is by inflating debt, and towards the end stage, in hyperbolic fashion.

 

Given that most of us have never known any era but one of debt substantiation (I believe here that beardrech alone can tell authoritative stories from his childhood about the Great Depression), it is difficult to envision a break down of the current finance regime, or to imagine what the terrain would look like after such a phase-change. We have enjoyed the fruits of a system that has only ever expanded the meaning of "qualified" in reference to debtors.

 

But to answer your question, it really only requires one of two changes: 1) Debtors curtail their willingness to sign on the dotted line, or 2) Creditors abruptly adjust their working definition of "qualified" in regard to the aforementioned destined-for-vats-of-burning-diesel-fuel debtors.

 

#1 is the horse & water problem: where sheeple en masse refuse to sign on the dotted line, debt is no longer created in sufficient volume to substantiate the debt already available within the system. If this "debtors' strike" is sustained, the system will pitch into a deflationary debt-destructive cycle, as prior debt is either liquidated or paid-off as it comes due, thuss reducing the volume of debt within the system,

 

#2 is a classic "bankers' panic," and is the prisoners' dilemma run amok. Banks panic that their outstanding book of loans is actually worth dimes on the dollar, and they therefore reign in lending. This begins to erode the value of outstanding debt, since debtors who might have otherwise been able to rollover an outstanding balance find instead that their creditor insists they make full & final payment in full. This provokes defaults, which in turn appears to justify & substantiate the earlier decision of those same banks to have curtailed lending. Lending remains tight, another cycle of unable-to-rollover debtors defaults, and we're off to the same debt-annihilation races we got to by way of the debtors-as-horses strike previously described.

 

The Fed can fight #1 by monetizing debt.

The Fed can fight #2... by monetizing debt.

 

In both cases, the Fed steps in to serve as the lender of last resort. It could come to hold all the deeds & IOUs.

 

Presumably, however, the currency would collapse, since there would be a flood of it into the system as the result of transactions whose basis was political, not market and profit-motive based. Those who had managed in an early exit to swap debt for cash from the Fed would find the value of that fiat in rapid decline.

 

Additionally, savers would be wiped out. Where savings are wiped out, private investment is wiped out. Without private investment, private sector job creation does not proceed.

 

The system would have to reconstitute, by placing the currency system on a real basis. The government either seizes privately-held bullion, or offers a "deal-you-can't-refuse" on some extortionist ratio. Those who make the swap use the gold-backed notes to purchase the collateral earlier secured from the government. Insiders, of course, enjoy favorable terms.

 

They become the small wealth pool with free-and clear title to assets against which they can ultimately secure limited credit. They combine such credit with the abundant and cheap desperate pool of impoverished labor to manufacture basic necessities.

 

From that pool, a tenuous prosperity grows, which will eventually culminate in credit excess as the cycle repeats.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Can you have parallel economies but in different lands where one experiences buying debt and the other selling debt at the same time? Therefore the sun is always shinning somewhere.