MrHanky Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 crudlow and scammer were on last nite trying to understand why the market is going down.they said it should be going up because the earnings reports have been great. what!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...great earnings reports???on what planet? i think it was crudlow who said the markets are ignoring the great fundamentals of a recovery for the economy. in the early 80's when I was on ludes,coke and weed,my brain still functioned alot better then those brainiacs.their therapists must have them on some hard core stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Oh so good! This site has and will continue to teach this start with nothing Joe Blow, struggling to death to merely survive, I do not stretch this by any means, how to have a better than fair chance to make speculation a workable and viable piece of my future. Thank you Stool, for I see also that it is good. Now where the hell is my brick hammer, this contract is FINALLY a go again, so I can make some cash to: renew my subscription to the hallowed Anals, and make some chump change grow into something, one trade at a time. Thanks to all contributing stoolies for this chance of a lifetime rapid fire education. Because of the good Doctor and ALL of you, I think I will have a reasonable success at this. One trade at a time...... Best to all for tolerating me. I shall continue to call this special place my cyber home. Bills are all paid, shelter is secure, earnings now can go into Mr. Market for a good plunder and pillage. Wall Street beware.......Chicago later as funds allow. I will update a start with peanuts portfolio as it progresses and hopefully grows. I will be busy for the next month or so starting Monday and will make some excellent coin over the month, though I will be working my ASS off for it. Pretty well most of it will be speculation funds. Peanuts to most of you, but I gotta start somewhere. October, November were painful but I shall recover and make it happen. My position I opened at today's close is so small you would laugh, but to me it's a lot of money. Will be in touch in the evenings as my sore and weary tired body plops in front of the computer and relaxes for a couple of hours. I will set a stop and limit for Monday's action. Won't be around in the day. Fortunately on the wet coast I can do my positions in the morning before I leave and set program targets. Thank God for the internet, cheap commisions, and the Stool, or I could never participate in this great game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Thanks, Beardrech. Have you found Puplava at www.financialsense.com yet? His weekly 2 hour webcasts are excellent and free. He calls himself an austrian too, and when my bear nerves get frazzled, Puplava's often the cure. My "mutual fund advisor" laughed at me when I told him to take a position in that managed futures fund. It's up 12% one week later. Some things will never change. :grin: What was the symbol of that managed futures fund? Perhaps I should take a small position. It's called AGF Managed Futures. I found it doing scans on www.globefund.com. Don't know the 3 digit identifier- bought because all the funds I was in were either gold or shite, and cannot purchase shares or options in that account. Glad I found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 hey doc,I finally subscibed today! I hope to contribute to the stool for a long time to come(especially since I'm temporarily laid off,I have a lot of time to post!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 crudlow and scammer were on last nite trying to understand why the market is going down.they said it should be going up because the earnings reports have been great. What I thought he was saying was that earnings were better than expected. So big deal. Isn't it more important to know if earnings are showing year on year growth? What really ticked me off about last night's commentary was that "the market is going down because of technical analysis" i.e. if it wasn't for TA I guess the fundamentals are so good that it should go back up again. So what was going on in 2000? Does Scammer believe the market went up purely on its fundamentals? I can't work out if this man is a complete idiot or if he just has a big mouth. Madame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 I can't work out if this man is a complete idiot or if he just has a big mouth. I should say I hardly ever watch him. Can't stand the sound of his voice. Last night was an exception as I was waiting for Cliggot. Maybe if I were to put myself through the torture of listening to his hysterical rantings from start to finish I could work it out. But somehow it doesn't seem to be that important to know one way or another. Either way he seems to add little value. Madame, with better things to do with her time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Crammit is the best contrary indicator I have ever seen. Bearish at bottoms, bullish at tops. Always chasing the market and the last hot sector. A superbull on stocks like Tyco, AhOL, and GE. He's also a pathological liar. Listen to his PM radio show for a while and you will hear him take credit for things he never said, and frequently claim he said the opposite of what he actually did say. He's a wantonly depraved indivdual. A complete phony, liar, and shill for one thing and one thing only. Himself. Krudlow is just a drug addicted perma bull loudmouth who has never been right about anything in his life. These guys are living proof that if you talk fast enough, you can always make it on TV or Radio. Just like Rush Limbaugh. If you are a raving liar, so much the better. The public listens to what it wants to hear. No wonder we are in so much goddam trouble. We live in a society that wants the liars and manipulators to win. There is no honor in honor for its own sake. When I think about it, I want to puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Madame-you understand it correctly-but you do both-you bank profits AND you increase your leverage by buying more i.e.-1/3rd profit in your account 2/3 rds to buy more as you ladder down or up-now when I sense a bottom or top which is arbitrary and you don't know if you are right-I close all but the last 2 positions and if say I'm short i buy some calls that are just out of the money and put tight stops on the remaining 2 positions. Here is a good way to scalp the e minis spx intraday-put a price chart of the spx on you screen and a price chart of the e mini's-you will soon see that a move in the spx is reflected about a minute later in the e mini's it takes that long because the mini's track the spx if you are quick you can catch the spx move in the mini's and ride-when the spx turns down you have the same time to bail. You can buy exact price points in the mini's which is great and a 3 point with a minimum purchase puts $150.- bucks in your pocket or purse. trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 The Puplava-Noland interview is outstanding. One of the interviews of the year. Worth listening to several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Brian, thanks for the explanations. Seems the problem is always when is a reversal really a reversal, when is a bounce become a short term reversal become an intermediate term reversal? Say you start laddering in calls on a 'bounce' but the bounce is fake. When do you pull the trigger and take your loss in those calls? Anyway, I am new to this but I am looking for a way to trade that is in both directions and hedged so that I don't have to game for perfect timing all the time, thats a drag. Beardrech, are you a fan of "On the Waterfront"? A great movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 Hope you all enjoy your weekend and get some well deserved rest. Thanks for everyone's input. Hypertiger, I relish your comments. They keep me on my toes and thinking about The End :grin: There is a lovely piece in The Daily Reckoning on gold today. I have posted a snippet here: "Unlike a commodity, the gold price seems oblivious to both supply and demand. During the past 10 years the annual supply of gold, including scrap sales, has fallen short of the fabrication demand for gold by a cumulative 2,764 tonnes. This is more than one year's total supply of gold from mining. You would think that such a shortfall would boost the price of gold. On the contrary, there appeared to be no correlation. It is perhaps a happy coincidence that the supply of gold tends to rise at about the same rate as the supply of everything else. GDP and population figures increase at a real, net rate of between 1% and 2% annually. Gold mining, which benefits from technological improvements, increases production at about the same rate. Thus, gold is not only money, but very stable money - it inflates at no greater speed than the things it is used to buy and sell." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 worm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 brian4 (and others), fabulous explanation of your trading strategy. As others have said, this site is a wealth of information, and reasoned views. The stool is valuable And it doesn't stink :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 you bank profits AND you increase your leverage by buying more i.e.-1/3rd profit in your account 2/3 rds to buy more as you ladder down or up B4- now that makes perfect sense to me. Thanks for the explanation. It seems to me the ideal time to bank profits is when there is still some time value left. Depending on the expiry month, TV starts to decay really fast after the underlying is ITM by a certain %. Do you have any rules of thumb to determine the ideal point to take profits? It looks to me that it's somewhere around the 10% ITM point, but it depends on the time left to expiry. One thing I really like about your strategy is that if you have a pretty good feel for major tops (and bottoms for that matter) it allows you to buy puts at that point for little or no TV. If the market subsequently meanders about as it has done the past couple of months, you don't get killed with time value decay. Others may decide to sit it out until things get really motive, and risk missing the first decline off the top. Once the motive downmove is confirmed, you switch the strike to a larger #, closer to the underlying, thereby taking on more option risk that is mitigated by the clearer market direction. I find options fascinating, but unless you have a good understanding of the math and use a good strategy, it's just a big casino where most of the profits just go to the house. Madame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted January 25, 2003 Report Share Posted January 25, 2003 It looks to me that it's somewhere around the 10% ITM point, but it depends on the time left to expiry. What I meant is: time value decay accelerates somewhere around the 10% ITM point. The original put is deep ITM to start off with and only becomes deeper as the market falls. Sorry if that sounded confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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