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Goldmember

Mark's Thread For The Weak End

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Still have more room to go down in the channel on the 60 minute chart. Stochastics can hug the trendline until the other indicators catch up.

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I am a stoolie. I am a BEAR. I think Doc is beyond scary good. But I do believe there is enough ammunition left in Greasepan's arsenal to make GWB not look like a fool on the eve of and through the State of the Union. The operative phrase is "not look like a fool" because the mkt can go flat, but it cannot be allowed to tank Monday thru Wednesday. That lends credence to BB's potential 3 days up.

 

Based on that analysis I covered my RYVNX with Qs at 24.76. If we open Monday with a small to medium gap down, it will rise to SGs EW high side targets and and resume the grind down. I'm also looking for a small pullback or flat in bullion over the same time frame.

 

Thats how I see it. Now I will go see what Doc has in the anals.

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Jim Puplava expects an accelerated decline in the stock market over the next few weeks, followed by a much slower decline.

 

After the next few weeks, an eye out for October lows from last year is adviseable.

 

According to Doug Noland (who I am gaining respect for by the second!), the REAL recession/depression has not even started yet because the consumer spending/debt bubble has not really started to deflate.

 

Literally trillions in excess mortgage credit.

 

Enormous waste.

 

Gigantic trucks (try driving those trucks here in SD County at 10 mph on the over crowded freeways!)

Fancy furniture.

Fancy jewelry.

Over done landscaping.

Incredible clothing.

Jet skis, boats, RV's.

 

Also, we are in for a weaker dollar due to the structured finance/quasi Fannie, Freddie Central bank lending issue. Foreign countries are selling US debt and securities...too much risk.

 

Guess we are seeing why the Fed has not pumped as much lately? Dollar is too weak already?

 

Listen to Doug Noland interview with Puplava here:

 

Doug Noland Interview

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Look at the RSI channel on the SPX weekly chart. When it hits the top of the channel, great time to go short. But, make sure other indicators agree also. Same with going dong when the RSI hits the bottom of the channel. Keep trailing stops until you get stopped out. Notice where the RSI hit recently? :D

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First, KA-CHING!!!

 

I agree with TE and Brian on upcoming bounce. My strategy albeit somewhat irresponsible is to close my eyes and not open them until next significant turn (March?). I'm NOT gaming this daily, as SG would say.

 

This is too weird, the very first page on Intraday from the old board I searched had exactly what I was looking for. BBs Oct call:

 

Good morning, (Oct 7)

 

Fireworks week is here... I expect huge volatility...Strong turn days today and 10/10....Since last Friday was a turn day as well, I will guess that Friday might have seen the closing low and today will see the intraday low with a higher close (above Friday's)...

 

The low numbers for the SPX has not been seen yet. Potential "good" turns are:

 

10/7/02 @ 766

10/8/02 @ 764

10/11/02 @761

 

(+/- variances)

 

These are not targets...they are levels that if reached on the specified day, the trend has the POTENTIAL to change..

 

Day traders week, with sharp up and down..

 

Have a good trading day...

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Wow!

 

Some serious ass kicking today. Damn bullies anyway.

 

Can you say toast? I knew you could.

 

The momentum is building and the bullies are sweating. The analcysts are squirming.

 

What a beautiful thing. Paybacks are a bitch and we will be vindicated.

 

Reality always wins. Wait till Monday and the u.n. report. This thing is smoke city.

 

The weekend talk circuit will come up with an excuse I?m sure.

 

Procto ran on their news ticker saying the spread in the bowl game is 3 ? points and means the market will go up this year. These damn fools will go to any extreme to convince the sheeple to stay and bleed some more.

 

The dow stopped right on the 50- yard line. Should be fun to see what happens.

 

Volatility is starting to spike after a base from mid nov. This pig will explode to the downside. We already had the spike to the upside now payback time. Gravity is our friend.

 

Spent most of the day flying so I really missed the damn screen. Every stop I was banging away at the sprint pcs couldn?t believe what I was seeing. I figured uncle al would really take some drastic measures. Looks to me we are in a serious spiral downward. The moment we have been waiting for has come.

 

They will try to pump but the wrath of the all mighty grizzly will shred anything in his path.

 

Bloodhound:

 

You are right as usual, we are in uncharted waters but I think all of us here know the outcome.

 

Beautiful job troops! Bloodhound, Major Piles, Aussie, End, Hyper, Slinger winger, and all of the stoolies who reside here. Everyone here has contributed in solving the greatest puzzle ever devised in our lifetime. This is the scam of scams and we are so damn fortunate to be able to see right thru it. Now it is payday! We have waited long enough!

 

CYA

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B4: Yesterday at the close I bought 2 OEX 435 puts and an OEX 470 put (learned that little maneuver from advice you gave GTN a few months ago.) Not too shabby. Now, could you please explain for the trading impaired what the heck a ladder is and where I find one? :blink: . Any other smart cookies, feel free to chime in. Thanks, guys & gals for the education.

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Wow... I am listening to the Puplava/Noland interview (thank god for high speed internet and the company I work for) and he just said:

 

it takes enormous debt/credit excess just to get 1 to 2% GDP growth.

 

He still thinks their is a lot of monkey business in earnings. All of us here already new that.

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GTN, ....If you feel uncomfortable shorting (no shame in that) then you need to suss out where the bullmarket sector is (eg gold) and go long. This is a bear site so we're all seeing the same scenario more or less but don't let yourself be too influenced by others. No point in you going short if it doesn't feel right, have to be able to sleep at night and all that....

 

Remember those blowout figures on housing starts last week?

 

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

 

?Apartment vacancy rates in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have risen to a 10-year high, as building far outpaces demand? In 2002, builders completed more than 11,000 additional apartments in North Texas. But tenant demand filled a paltry 1,030. And during the fourth quarter, occupancy fell by 1,150 units.? Yet, there are 10,000 additional apartments in the development pipeline. "

 

Urk

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ML, Amen brother!

 

GTN, next green day "push the button".

 

Expect unbelievable volatility and large wild intraday swings if we are indeed in or soon entering wave 3. Its going to be a white-knuckler. Prepare yourself emotionally for it now. Don't be fooled by rallies. This won't end until we swing to the other extreme side of the spectrum (low BPIs, very high VIX & 21-day MA PCR, etc.), that's when I cover all. Until then its all noise.

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I haven't covered anything only added. I didn't add anything today. I had an order to buy more of . . . well you know what (XLNX) but, it dropped so much, it never had a chance of popping to my 22.00 price and I decided to leave things as they are. Tonight, I put in a stop for Monday at 21.11 which is about 6% above today's close. This current expedition has raised my initial equity nearly 40%.

 

I am in agreement with Brian4, End, SG and others that there will probably be some weak pops next week.

Although,

To be honest, I feel a little apprehensive about the "noise" coming out next week. On Monday The U.N. inspectors give their report, on Tuesday Shrub does his State of Confusion speech. If it wasn't for those two things I would not even have the stop in place.

I get off the subway every morning at the Wall St. stop. I have noticed the last few days that the trains are running in a certain slow stop-start pattern they ran around the time of the first anniversary of the attack on the Towers. There seems to have been a heightened presence by the Fuzz around the Stock Exchange area. I walk through that area to get to the office every morning. I'm sure that is coloring my thinking nonetheless, I sure will be glad to get to market close on Wednesday.

 

Regarding this "Whipping Post" stuff on IDS today. I love you guys, I love the Allmans, saw them in '77 with The Charlie Daniels Band and ZZ Top, but, don't you think you're being a little hard on poor Mrs. Ned38? All she wants to know is how Ned's trading is going. :wink2:

And Ned's "just tryin to make a livin and doin the best he can."

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Doug Noland says that this is a consumer economy.

 

Says that that mortgage delinquencies are very high.

 

Says that real problems start when credit excess is reduced and credit availability is reduced.

 

He also says that this year will be very volatile.

 

He is closely watching mortgage credit because it is directly effecting excess consumer consumption.

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Brian4, I need to get my mind around this Spx leveraging scheme of yours so email me if you will so I can study your mind on this. a possiblity always exists but is fading fast of an endofthemonth paint job but thats not really till Thursday anyway and its always when your looking for good bounces to short that they NEVER come. Bush will upchuck a mouth full of fear to attempt to frighten the public into following him into HELL and I doubt Wall Struck will like it much. I beleive they regard him as the ultimate idiot Goy and are pretty tired of his destabilizing influence by now. Anyway, Brian4 get in touch with me or any of you other stoolies regarding strategy sessions at rthaler11@hotmail.com thanks, b.d.

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