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Monthly Digger - June 2007


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I noted that the last decline in SLV from the April highs ground back to March lows, unlike distribution that showed up about every three months with one felled swoop. The thought that comes to mind is it a change of behavior and setup to launch. 127 to 129 area was marked on the charts for obvious support areas. Today it appears we have broken a supply line from the April highs.

 

You will recall the swift declines bottoming:

June 2006

Sept. 2006

Dec. 2006

March 2007

 

June 2007 acts like one.

 

What can one say but,

IT IS WHAT IT IS.

 

You all provide very good insight, so I'll leave up to you to carry us home through another month. By the way, the Dow is almost home as it arrives very close to it's 90% PnF potential at 13,680 today. A remaining 10% potential would carry it to 14,400.

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XAU:

 

I'd posted that I saw support at around 132.50---and expected a decline to that range within the ending diagonal.

 

Elliotticians invariably miss bottoms and tops waiting for that last wave.

 

It's hard to deny the technical signposts of Thursday's rally.

 

It has never been a good idea in XAU's rallies to wait for an opportune decline to enter, or in declines, to wait for a bounce to cover.

 

The race goes to the swift.

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XAU:

 

While the Labelling may be forced, it's fairly clear that this last decline has a very different proflile from the former declines.

 

From long and slim to short and fat.

 

Gee! That's kinda like my profile over last 30 years or so.

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XAU:

 

It is a long-held axiom that when the index leads the commodity, that's bullish.

 

The reason? The index is leveraged to the commodity. Thus the smart money switches from the physical to the leveraged play where gains will be greater.

 

XAU seems to on the cusp.

 

The trend off the summer lows of 2006 weakened creating a long period of bullish divergence.

 

The ratio bottomed in March, and and is on the verge of a breakout north together with a MACD reversal into positive territory.

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After several months of having a limit order for Harmony at 10.50 euro I just caved in and bought at 11.10 Euro

Who knows that the final low in july- august is going to be lower then the price today

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