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Monthly Digger - April 2007


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yes, we are into resistance again, lets see if the supply has been absorbed and we can move higher. if its now than i look for a may high, if not then a may low. again, the pattern since last may is a big base consolidation for another upleg. this market requires a great deal of patience. dharma

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BV: you still holding out for one more low here?

Volumes are not all that stellar certainly...

but sentiment seems OK for a bullish move here...

 

I don't know.

 

I think we're in a huge "C" wave that is incomplete, so we may see challenges of resistance at 152 XAU for b of "C". It could be a flat, in which case after 152, we'd impulse down sharply. It could also be a double zig-zag, so that that the large A and B wave could count as a W and X, and we'd decline thereafter in another 3 wave pattern for Y.

 

The oscillators for XAU are all bullish, now that PPO has crossed above the zero line.

 

The XAU:gold ratio chart has turned short term bullish and appears to in a wedge (a reversal) pattern. As there are only 3 touches, not 5, it is incomplete.

 

My volume indicator dipped from plus 9 Monday to plus 5 Tuesday--some short term bearish divergence. So traders may wish to buy this little dip.

 

So I think we'll sell off from current short term resistance for a day or two and then break through to major resistance.

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GDX:

 

Keep an eye on the gap from 41.46 t0 41.90.

 

That's where wave 1 and 5 will be equal --and the intermediate term rally should end.

 

As for Tuesday--- it's a near perfect 61.8 retracement off the March lows. So we should see some pullback.

 

Thus, any rally above these levels--even in the context of a small decline from here, supports a more bullish short term count. THe bullish count will be wrong, however, if we overlap 38.79.

 

This count is bullish, and stands in distinction to XAU, which is bearish.

 

Historically, XAU has had abc patterns up to HUI's impulses. Thus, one has corrected up while the other has impulsed up

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is anyone else looking for a may high?

then some consolidation

then another end of year run!

yes, all boats in the sector are rising. rno gets taken out!

dharma

573553[/snapback]

 

I have two scenarios....I can't tell which one plays out until we test out the swing high. First off there is a little bit more work do right here in order to have a run at the swing high on the HUI Dharma.

 

Basically now is the dig your nails in tight time...... with the caveat to always be aware of your failure points.

 

last few days the market has been saying there are buyers - in size - their hoofprints are visible in many many charts...... Demand has shown up during the seasonal time of strength.

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