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Monthly Digger - April 2007


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The HUI index was basically flat for the quarterly close. The March 5 low had a good secondary test with high close on March 14. Behind that we had a lot of supply come in on Feb. 27.

 

It appears we may be pushing higher even if we are stuck right in the middle of last quarters high and low. On my chart a line at 350 says the pigmen have been able to hold the HUI down since July 2006 with 3 thrusts above that line that got sold off. There is coming a day when 350 will get retested as support. As of now it's a meandering resistance area. The more we absorb into the 350 area and the selling gets shallower the more we get closer to that day.

 

Until then we know the areas that are getting bought and those that are getting sold.

 

If we close the next quarter near 350 then I believe we will be close to seeing it break and become support.

 

HUI

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175389001.png

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ARU.TO

 

If you can trade Canadian stocks, I'm ultra-bullish on this stock.

 

I mentioned it briefly last month, I believe.

 

It's been beaten down. But MACD has double bullish divergence with price lows.

 

Now it appears to have broken up out of a triple bottom barrier triangle.

 

It put on a very bullish candlestick pattern. I'm no expert here, but it looks like 3 white knights to me. And that's wave 1. So we should see 2 more waves that are $8.00 or more in length upward following 2 corrections.

 

Last week's rally retraced about 38%. So we may be due to correct.

 

Assuming a counter-trend move, now, of 38 to 62%, it won't fill the gap for correction # 1 or wave 2. That should leave a bullish island reversal, or a breakaway gap. Thus, I anticipate bullish patterns to form on corrections, consistent with ultimate wave 3 patterns.

 

Right now, I'm looking for a back-test of the trendline on correction #1, which i believe will be wave 2, an abc pattern. Anywhere in the gap, or at the gap itself seems to be a reasonable point of entry. The gap is huge, running from 26.39 to 27.66.

 

If wave 1 was 8 points and assuming that the next 2 impulses will be at least 8 points each, we should ultimately reach the measured move of a full retracement to $43.00 or exceed it.

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the Decennial pattern. The 7 th year provides a great entry point later in the year. Sometimes the buy point is pushed out into the first Q of the 8 th year.

 

This year is looking good for a late year low in the markets. the move off the March 2003 lows is statistically long in the tooth in terms of duration and in price appreciation. They are now beginning the process of a correction of that entire move. Historical analysis of corrections suggests anywhere from 3 -18 months as the time frame for the correction to play out.

 

place your bets....the croupier is waiting.

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