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None of which is going to matter. Once credit starts tightening as it has in the mortgage market, it's too late.

 

I visited my old appraisal firm yesterday. They said they are now appraising houses down 20% from where they were at the peak levels. They are using MLS listings for comps because the listing prices are below those of the recently closed sales, and they are adjusting down from there.

 

So regardless of whatever statistical massaging the reporting agencies do, it won't matter, because the actual deals will be lower, one deal at a time, day in and day out.

 

Anyone who bought a house or condo, or refied, in Florida in the last two years is now under water. Next month it will be anyone who bought in the last three years. A couple months down the road it will be everyone who bought in the last 4 years. 

 

Maybe Florida is the worst case, but is California and the rest of the nation far behind? Whereas before no one had to qualify, now, everyone must qualify.

 

The real estate market is heading for a cataclysmic implosion.

570509[/snapback]

 

North carolina real estate is doing pretty good. Raleigh, Charlotte , Lenoir, Washington ... Etc ... its not that bad. REALLY !!!

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WOW!  This weeks Fed H8 shows that credit held by banks took a massive dump!

 

Down over $100B, back down to January 2007 levels.

 

I can't remember that big a drop for as long as I have been watching the H8.

 

What does it mean though?

570521[/snapback]

 

Securitization?

Selling of mortgages to hedge hogs at 40cents on the dollar?

Writeoffs? glup.

Blackhole?

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None of which is going to matter. Once credit starts tightening as it has in the mortgage market, it's too late.

 

I visited my old appraisal firm yesterday. They said they are now appraising houses down 20% from where they were at the peak levels. They are using MLS listings for comps because the listing prices are below those of the recently closed sales, and they are adjusting down from there.

 

So regardless of whatever statistical massaging the reporting agencies do, it won't matter, because the actual deals will be lower, one deal at a time, day in and day out.

 

Anyone who bought a house or condo, or refied, in Florida in the last two years is now under water. Next month it will be anyone who bought in the last three years. A couple months down the road it will be everyone who bought in the last 4 years.?

 

Maybe Florida is the worst case, but is California and the rest of the nation far behind? Whereas before no one had to qualify, now, everyone must qualify.

 

The real estate market is heading for a cataclysmic implosion.

570509[/snapback]

 

North carolina real estate is doing pretty good. Raleigh, Charlotte , Lenoir, Washington ... Etc ... its not that bad. REALLY !!!

570520[/snapback]

 

 

here is an article about the large foreclosure rate in North Carolina: some bits and a link:

http://www.charlotte.com/523/story/58198.html

 

The city of Charlotte does not count foreclosures. Neither does Mecklenburg County. Nor the state of North Carolina. Nor the federal government.

 

As a result, authorities did not notice an emerging pattern: Foreclosures increasingly were concentrating in starter home neighborhoods.

 

An Observer analysis of county records found 35 Mecklenburg developments of low-priced homes built in the past decade with foreclosure rates of 20 percent or higher. Dozens of residents say the concentrations have damaged their communities. Prices fell. Renters moved in. Crime sometimes rose.

 

But as the foreclosures piled up, authorities were unaware.

 

"We wouldn't know it on a neighborhood level," says Mark Pearce, deputy N.C. commissioner of banks, which regulates loan sellers. "A 20 percent foreclosure rate in a neighborhood that's new is surprising and troubling

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Templeton dude on Nitely Biz Report.

 

Last June he reco'd Newscorp, MER, Fannie, and some other broker, I think Morgan Stanley.

 

All up at least 22% from when he reco'd them.

 

Now he's pushing ORCL and MSFT, and a Taiwan company that you can only gain exposure to through funds like, gawrsh, his fund, because it's only traded in Taiwan. Something called Lite-On Technology, pays 7% divi and low p/e.

 

I've bought some of their products.

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Anybody know who did this?

 

 

 

 

 

 

PARIS (AFP) - France became the first country to open its files on UFOs Thursday when the national space agency unveiled a website documenting more than 1,600 sightings spanning five decades.

 

ADVERTISEMENT

 

The online archives, which will be updated as new cases are reported, catalogues in minute detail cases ranging from the easily dismissed to a handful that continue to perplex even hard-nosed scientists.

 

"It is a world first," said Jacques Patenet, the aeronautical engineer who heads the office for the study of "non-identified aerospatial phenomena."

 

Known as OVNIs in French, UFOs have always generated intense interest along with countless conspiracy theories about secretive government cover-ups of findings deemed too sensitive or alarming for public consumption.

 

"Cases such as the lady who reported seeing an object that looked like a flying roll of toilet paper" are clearly not worth investigating, said Patenet.

 

But many others involving multiple sightings -- in at least one case involving thousands of people across France -- and evidence such as burn marks and radar trackings showing flight patterns or accelerations that defy the laws of physics are taken very seriously.

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Then again we might all be wrong, and collapsing interest rates and the return of easy money will rescue the market.

570513[/snapback]

 

That's my thesis for the duration of the housing slump.

 

There is no denying the liquidity crunch this is creating, so there is no doubt in my mind that the Fed will try to counter that by reflating, and as usual, the money will find its way into stocks. But it won't create a permanently high plateau. It will just exacerbate the volatility, up and down.

570516[/snapback]

 

Even if the Fed pumps it won't rescue the housing market as long as the credit standards tighten up.

 

My thesis is that we've been in the "new era" of wildcat finance for so long, that nobody remembers how to do business in a more prudent, slower paced and honest environment.

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Anybody know who did this?

 

 

 

 

 

 

PARIS (AFP) - France became the first country to open its files on UFOs Thursday when the national space agency unveiled a website documenting more than 1,600 sightings spanning five decades.

 

ADVERTISEMENT

 

The online archives, which will be updated as new cases are reported, catalogues in minute detail cases ranging from the easily dismissed to a handful that continue to perplex even hard-nosed scientists.

 

"It is a world first," said Jacques Patenet, the aeronautical engineer who heads the office for the study of "non-identified aerospatial phenomena."

 

Known as OVNIs in French, UFOs have always generated intense interest along with countless conspiracy theories about secretive government cover-ups of findings deemed too sensitive or alarming for public consumption.

 

"Cases such as the lady who reported seeing an object that looked like a flying roll of toilet paper" are clearly not worth investigating, said Patenet.

 

But many others involving multiple sightings -- in at least one case involving thousands of people across France -- and evidence such as burn marks and radar trackings showing flight patterns or accelerations that defy the laws of physics are taken very seriously.

570526[/snapback]

Looks like the outline of a giant melted bear to me.

 

Where's Shorty?

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Excellent article about foreclosures in Cleveland suburbs - mostly due to subprime lending:

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/us/23vac...c229&ei=5087%0A

 

"SHAKER HEIGHTS, Ohio ? In a sign of the spreading economic fallout of mortgage foreclosures, several suburbs of Cleveland, one of the nation?s hardest-hit cities, are spending millions of dollars to maintain vacant houses as they try to contain blight and real-estate panic."

 

Also, the local government thinks they can fix the problem. Uh, right.

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None of which is going to matter. Once credit starts tightening as it has in the mortgage market, it's too late.

 

I visited my old appraisal firm yesterday. They said they are now appraising houses down 20% from where they were at the peak levels. They are using MLS listings for comps because the listing prices are below those of the recently closed sales, and they are adjusting down from there.

 

So regardless of whatever statistical massaging the reporting agencies do, it won't matter, because the actual deals will be lower, one deal at a time, day in and day out.

 

Anyone who bought a house or condo, or refied, in Florida in the last two years is now under water. Next month it will be anyone who bought in the last three years. A couple months down the road it will be everyone who bought in the last 4 years. 

 

Maybe Florida is the worst case, but is California and the rest of the nation far behind? Whereas before no one had to qualify, now, everyone must qualify.

 

The real estate market is heading for a cataclysmic implosion.

570509[/snapback]

 

North carolina real estate is doing pretty good. Raleigh, Charlotte , Lenoir, Washington ... Etc ... its not that bad. REALLY !!!

570520[/snapback]

 

 

Raleigh, in the heart of the Research Triangle may just be one of the strongest markets in the country. http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices...a/Raleigh-Cary/

 

Many of those getting the hell out of Florida head for the Carolinas. Ditto for those escaping the overpriced DC market. Areas where housing is cheap relative to nearby expensive markets, and which have a well diversified economic base, are going to hold up longer than the overpriced bubble areas.

 

Philly, which is a very large market, but cheap relative to its neighbors to the north and south, NY and DC, is also doing ok. It also helps that these are really nice places to live. So the principle of reversion to the mean is at work in these areas.

 

Basically, the areas being hardest hit are those that are the most overpriced and had the biggest bubbles, along with the economically depressed areas that cut across the Northeast and Midwest that never participated in the bubble. Listing prices are down 10% in Detroit in 9 months, NYC is down 7%, DC is down 7%. LA and San Diego are down 5%. San Francisco is down 9%. Sacramento down 9%. Phoenix and Vegas are only down 4%. Miami, Tampa, and Orlando are all down around 8%. They haven't faced reality yet, as inventories continue to mushroom in those markets.

 

Miami leads the country in listings with 108,000. Atlanta is the second market to hit six figures in total listings. By comparison the combined number of listings in the 3 metro NY area, with 7 times the population of either the Miami or Atlanta markets, was 35,000.

 

So, yes there are still some markets that are relatively healthy. There are others that are sick and dying, and still others that are sick, but don't know it yet. Eventually, virtually all markets will be dragged down.

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WOW!  This weeks Fed H8 shows that credit held by banks took a massive dump!

 

Down over $100B, back down to January 2007 levels.

 

I can't remember that big a drop for as long as I have been watching the H8.

 

What does it mean though?

570521[/snapback]

 

Securitization?

Selling of mortgages to hedge hogs at 40cents on the dollar?

Writeoffs? glup.

Blackhole?

570522[/snapback]

 

Thanks for pointing that out, Jetlag!

 

I took a quick look at the H8 to see what accounted for that. Almost all of it was in residential real estate loans in small commercial banks. Sounds like one or more small banks either bit the bullet and took the writedown, or offloaded a bunch of crap to a non-bank entity. This could be a reflection of the beginning of subprime paper writedowns. Who knows?

 

Looking at the large commercial banks, they had a not insignificant reduction in residential real estate loans, but the change in the small banks was gargantuan. So it would appear that recognition of the problem is still spotty.

 

Next week numbers will be of interest to see if this was just a one time cleaning up of the books or the beginning of something bigger and more sinister.

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