DrStool Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Mark is travelling. anyone hear of the govt...setting up a RTC for people who might lose their homes because most of them lied about their incomes...it's where if they cannot afford say 1300 monthly payment but can afford say 500 the taxpayer picks up the tab for the 800 remaining..only in america can you lie, cheat , steal, and the government step in and say don't worry about it will help you... 570475[/snapback] That's a non starter. Sounds like from one of those hysterical foaming at the mouth anti-government sites. 570481[/snapback] Doc, it's a radio call in show for traders like us...he's good...will just leave it at that 570486[/snapback] To begin with, the RTC bailed out neither borrowers, stockholders or bond holders. The funds realized from the liquidation sales were used to reimburse the insurance funds used to pay off insured deposits. A multitude of institutions were closed. Borrowers lost everything. Idiot lenders lost everything. And yes, the taxpayer got screwed. There's not enough money for a bailout this time. It's just too big. Subprime is just the tip of the iceberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 23, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 One thing's for sure. When the prosecutions start, they're gonna have to build much bigger prisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 One thing's for sure. When the prosecutions start, they're gonna have to build much bigger prisons. 570501[/snapback] Then I guess we'd better buy LEN. Weren't they the one that had gov't contracts for prison building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prancing_cow Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Mark is travelling. anyone hear of the govt...setting up a RTC for people who might lose their homes because most of them lied about their incomes...it's where if they cannot afford say 1300 monthly payment but can afford say 500 the taxpayer picks up the tab for the 800 remaining..only in america can you lie, cheat , steal, and the government step in and say don't worry about it will help you... 570475[/snapback] That's a non starter. Sounds like from one of those hysterical foaming at the mouth anti-government sites. 570481[/snapback] Doc, it's a radio call in show for traders like us...he's good...will just leave it at that 570486[/snapback] To begin with, the RTC bailed out neither borrowers, stockholders or bond holders. The funds realized from the liquidation sales were used to reimburse the insurance funds used to pay off insured deposits. A multitude of institutions were closed. Borrowers lost everything. Idiot lenders lost everything. And yes, the taxpayer got screwed. There's not enough money for a bailout this time. It's just too big. Subprime is just the tip of the iceberg. 570498[/snapback] wouldn't there have to be some cut off time? Like only the loans made between 2002-2006, and with adjustable rate only. there would always be someone who would be pissed that they did not qualify, or cursing what the fool they were because they actually were making all the payments. If as you say, IT will explode around this summer, there is nothing they can do to cure the problem, and once it explodes then a blaming game will begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elh Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 One thing's for sure. When the prosecutions start, they're gonna have to build much bigger prisons. 570501[/snapback] Would that be for all those white collar sentences that get commuted for time served? Just look how easily They are trying to gut Sarbanes-Oxley not even three years after that epic collapse. If they just take these guys assets away via civil penalties, that would make me happy. In addition to strict re-regulation of Wall Street and the elimination of the Federal Reserve. How in the world market makers get to perform proprietary trading is beyond me. That's like letting Caesar's Palace place bets at their own shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
try2win Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 things im in .... CCJ ~ i sold 40 calls, question i have .... can i get called before the op ex date ?? im oping i do get called as i have wrote calls a couple times already; so if i get called i wont be upset. plus id rather get rid of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Anybody see this? DataQuick is going to be redoing their way of calculating the median home price reported.....Is this gonna be like rejiggering the CRB index? Should we look to this for a little housing bounce or CNBS "the bottom is in" reporting? http://thisoldhouseflip.blogspot.com/ Saturday, February 24, 2007 San Diego company revises its formula By Roger Showley UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER February 15, 2007 DataQuick Information Systems, the San Diego company that collects information on home sales in nearly all markets across the country, has adjusted the way it computes its widely watched reports on median home prices. The result will be revised calculations for housing prices and sales volume in all markets surveyed by DataQuick ? including San Diego ? going back to 1988, said DataQuick anal cyst John Karevoll. Karevoll said the revisions should not greatly change previously reported price figures, which are closely followed by the real estate industry, as well as by homeowners, and are published in many newspapers. The changes will be less noticeable for prices that have been reported for individual ZIP codes. Starting with January's DataQuick reports ? released yesterday for Southern California ? the new methodology will capture about 10 percent more transactions than previously reported. The firm previously computed median prices for states, regions and counties based on a weighted average of medians first calculated for each ZIP code within the category. Under the new system, the overall median for each geographic area will be calculated from all transactions within each group and not derived from a median price established for each ZIP code. ?For commercial uses we've been doing this methodology for three or four years,? Karevoll said. ?What we'd like to do is get numbers put out in the public domain that are in sync with what we sell to banks.? Going back to 1988, the change is relatively slight, with some areas a little higher than previously reported and others a little lower. The reason I say this is that not too long ago the NAR (National Association of Reamtors) redid their way of calculating affordability. They used new assumptions on mortgage type (ARM instead of fixed), assumed the buyer could afford paying a larger percent of their take home pay for housing etc. Redoing the method of calculation gave them a way to "fudge" their numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 things im in .... CCJ ~ i sold 40 calls, question i have .... can i get called before the op ex date ?? im oping i do get called as i have wrote calls a couple times already; so if i get called i wont be upset. plus id rather get rid of it 570506[/snapback] I've been stalking Micron myself..... haven't pulled the trigger yet..... but... happy hunting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 23, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 None of which is going to matter. Once credit starts tightening as it has in the mortgage market, it's too late. I visited my old appraisal firm yesterday. They said they are now appraising houses down 20% from where they were at the peak levels. They are using MLS listings for comps because the listing prices are below those of the recently closed sales, and they are adjusting down from there. So regardless of whatever statistical massaging the reporting agencies do, it won't matter, because the actual deals will be lower, one deal at a time, day in and day out. Anyone who bought a house or condo, or refied, in Florida in the last two years is now under water. Next month it will be anyone who bought in the last three years. A couple months down the road it will be everyone who bought in the last 4 years. Maybe Florida is the worst case, but is California and the rest of the nation far behind? Whereas before no one had to qualify, now, everyone must qualify. The real estate market is heading for a cataclysmic implosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Totally agree, Doc. You know the thing I don;t understand is how the public can be lied to in such a way. I mean, in the past, it was the sell-side brokers and the media that lied to the public. But now, after going over sector research of over seven major bank and brokerage houses, plus a similar number of buy-side research, and some independent stuff (which I have to read at home, since tracking this board is so much more fun during office hours ), there is an almost universal conclusion that the worst is yet to come in the housing market. Yet the message doesn't hit home, pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elh Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Anyone who bought a house or condo, or refied, in Florida in the last two years is now under water. Next month it will be anyone who bought in the last three years. A couple months down the road it will be everyone who bought in the last 4 years. Maybe Florida is the worst case, but is California and the rest of the nation far behind? Whereas before no one had to qualify, now, everyone must qualify. 570509[/snapback] The local media believes coastal CA has tight building regulations going for it. Just imagine, Sacramento, Modesto and Bakersfield are supposed to burn in hell while San Francisco, Marin, and Newport Beach come out unscathed. How people can shelter themselves with this type of shoddy analysis is beyond me. If anything, I would think these high-priced zones have the highest abuses of these exotic loans under the label of "prime" or "alt-A." Jumbos, neg-ams, all of it. Or that many of these homes now tanking in Arizona and the Central Valley aren't second properties owned by the same people who reside in San Mateo or Orange Counties. Or that at some point, osmosis will demand that prices in these areas must fall simply because far better value can be found not even 80 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 23, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Totally agree, Doc. You know the thing I don;t understand is how the public can be lied to in such a way. I mean, in the past, it was the sell-side brokers and the media that lied to the public. But now, after going over sector research of over seven major bank and brokerage houses, plus a similar number of buy-side research, and some independent stuff (which I have to read at home, since tracking this board is so much more fun during office hours ), there is an almost universal conclusion that the worst is yet to come in the housing market. Yet the message doesn't hit home, pun intended. 570510[/snapback] Because everyone owns a home, even the thought of it is unimaginable. It's the old it won't happen to me syndrome. Then again we might all be wrong, and collapsing interest rates and the return of easy money will rescue the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 23, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 That selloff in HAL looks like it was contrived to allow the pigmen to load up. Keep an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungster Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 None of which is going to matter. Once credit starts tightening as it has in the mortgage market, it's too late. I visited my old appraisal firm yesterday. They said they are now appraising houses down 20% from where they were at the peak levels. They are using MLS listings for comps because the listing prices are below those of the recently closed sales, and they are adjusting down from there. So regardless of whatever statistical massaging the reporting agencies do, it won't matter, because the actual deals will be lower, one deal at a time, day in and day out. Anyone who bought a house or condo, or refied, in Florida in the last two years is now under water. Next month it will be anyone who bought in the last three years. A couple months down the road it will be everyone who bought in the last 4 years. Maybe Florida is the worst case, but is California and the rest of the nation far behind? Whereas before no one had to qualify, now, everyone must qualify. The real estate market is heading for a cataclysmic implosion. 570509[/snapback] I couldn't agree more. I'm just getting my popcorn ready now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sudaca Posted March 23, 2007 Report Share Posted March 23, 2007 Then again we might all be wrong, and collapsing interest rates and the return of easy money will rescue the market. 570513[/snapback] That's my thesis for the duration of the housing slump. There is no denying the liquidity crunch this is creating, so there is no doubt in my mind that the Fed will try to counter that by reflating, and as usual, the money will find its way into stocks. But it won't create a permanently high plateau. It will just exacerbate the volatility, up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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