The Fed Goose

[Drano]

Bears are now automatic members of Club Dead.

 

[beardrech]

a dogs breakfast is the best way to describe my trading over the past 6 weeks.

 

Infact to call it 'trading' is a joke...  

 

however I have managed to claw back 95% of my losses and am close enough to break even to be more than relieved.

 

In light of the incredible volitility,i am actually surprised that I have managed to escape relatively unhurt.

 

To say that this trading lark is hard is an understatement.

 

I really should do the exact opposite of what I think.

 

At the last minute just change long to short or vice versa.

 

I would be swimming in $$$$$$.....  

569918[/snapback]

Bris

If you're really serious about your subjective disposition betraying you too often why dont you try flipping a coin once in awhile--see with your own eyes what an attempt at mechanical randomization will do---Once ou get it out of your system then perhaps you could go in with a clearer head--

 

I really wish yu and shorty and others would,every once in a while, post an autopsy of a LOSING trade-lets assume all winners are the result of filtering out the misperceptions of what would ordinarily be a losing bet---that way,like chess players used to publish finished games in daily newspapers, we get to see both sides and just might see strategems of great utility for future use.

 

It would involve posting the chart with an elaborate legend and others piling on with their own observations----like an anatomy class

 

Some comments would start:You say you threw down here because.......,but I see the...... or why werent you straddled here.....hwere were your stops all done in such minute fashion that would make scrupulosity a common virtue

 

Beardrech Not more than a few times a week

[beardrech]

The problem my friends is that subprime isn't the problem. When I began forecasting the problem in 2004, I never mentioned the word subprime. It's not just subprime, regardless of what the goddam media says.

 

In 2004, when 1 year Treasuries were at 1%. 2/3 of house buyers and refiers in the biggest bubble markets were taking adjustable rape mortgages. There's an enormous wave of defaults, foreclosures and short sales coming throughout the entire spectrum of mortgages. The shit is just starting to hit the fan. The true scope of the catastrophe will unfold in all its glory over the next 6 months.

 

The issue for the stock market is whether that spurs the Fed and FCBs into a massive liquefaction drive, and whether debt destruction outpaces that.

 

I don't have the answer, and neither does the market. That's why I stress that all we really can do to stay ahead of the game is to follow the indicators. They may not catch the exact high and the exact low, but they will capture the meat of every significant move.

 

Subscribe to the WSE Pro today, and follow the indicators!

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?page_id=19

569950[/snapback]

 

I made a post on losing trades before I read the abov--

 

But for what its worth:

 

I think Shorty's mistake was projecting his sophisticated feelings and vision

into the minds and hearts of the cargo of fools in the ship below.

 

What the broad intelligence of Shorty could see with self evidence he mistakenly assumed was part of the Sheeple's mental furniture, and that like any intelligent beast under attack would panic and run for the hills..

 

But, like the herd behaving fools many of us are, we start jibber-babbing in a manner similar to these sentiments: "Do you think we really are going down?" and "Nah,the government wont allow it". "Greenspan is a Genius", "They're going to drop money from b-52", "I hear its f-84's" "My cousin ,the stock genius who just got out of the madhouse,told me things are always better when they get worse", "My Uncle Freddie said 1929 will never happen again,its against the Law".

 

And as this pen full of credulous apes,pretending to have the mental lucidity of Alzheimer's victims, desparately try to reach a state of deciciveness,instead, find themselves in a bog of ignorance with no way out; and just sit. and sit and sit.

 

And, Voila , their ignorance is confirmed by the PTB and Upsie Daizy--Wook wook at de Mawket how Farw ups it goez"

 

"Noone has gone wrong whoever underestimated the intelligence of Americans" HL Mencken

 

beardrech Shorty,unlike Col Walter Reed's exprience in Panama should be thankful he didn't catch Malaria

[hadjin]

beardrech ... I've got to buy your diary. Damn man, at least publish it !

[Jimbo]

THE AFTER LUNCH BONER 150 points between 2 and 3

 

They must be getting back from lunch a bit sooner now days.

All the money made in one fevered hour

- take the rest of the day off - you earned it pig man

Classic intraday play.

 

The 3 pm boner is always the preferred Pigman play.

 

Why?????????

 

Well after a heavy night with russian escorts they only get into work in time for a long boozy lunch with their hedge fund colleagues at some trendy eatery.

 

Its at the lunch that that they can agree to some co-ordinated action - and they get back to work just in time for the 3pm boner run.... make there money for the day and then go out for the next all night party.

 

Day traders are food. The after lunch dinner mint.

 

When you dont know where you are in the whore street food chain then your the next meal.

[I_Am_Madness]

intermediate bottom confirmed

 

if you're bullish now is the time to buy

 

lots of room to go up from here

569913[/snapback]

 

Not so fast.

 

It's but a fib retracement so far.

569978[/snapback]

 

I'm seeing the same thing.

It's also the 50 dma.

 

Last may, it came back to test the 50 too before giving way to new lows.