hadjin Posted March 2, 2007 Report Share Posted March 2, 2007 My grip is in a spasm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted March 2, 2007 Report Share Posted March 2, 2007 Goober, always a pleasure. Best, TCG 564226[/snapback] Hey CoinGuy! I've been missing your posts as I was away traveling to and fro, mostly fro. My schedule will continue to be a bit busy, but I always attempt to check in with this thread for the many fine posts and especially to get a glimpse of any of yours. I see that the very astute anjing bau posted a HUI chart that has your signature. Absolutely a great chart and exceptional perspective! Nice call CG! A short ramble on my current take: I think the important story not being discussed is the dire sub-prime mortgage and credit default swaps problem spreading/impacting the financial system/stock market/economy and emphasizing the need for the Fed to ease this summer. Combined, these growing problems are just too big to ignore. That puts the Fed in an impossible corner regardless of the inflation pressures everyone and his brother are currently focused. That is what the fed funds futures market is telling us, that the odds of a rate cut have dramatically increased from improbable to very probable within the next several months this summer. I wager the market will soon shift its focus/concern to this ripple effect on the financial markets forcing the Fed's hand. In the mean time, expect the usual tough on inflation "to support the dollar/treasuries" talk out of one side while the money pump continues out of the other side of the mouth. But don't take your eye off the biggest problem of all, the financial institutions (GSEs, Banks, Investment Banks, Insurance companies, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Municipalities, World Governments, etc.) are a house of cards extremely leveraged to this toxic paper and connected in such manner that a few big failures could bring down all the cards. The Sub-prime Mortgage Backed Securities are bad being marked to a model rather than marked to a real trading market, but pale in comparison to the much larger Credit Default Swaps market. This so called insurance, backed by nothing, marked to a model for its hypothetical value, has no real market. In other words, in the event this insurance will need to be exercised, who will guarantee it? If the domino effect takes place where one faltering bank takes out another which takes out another and so on, even the investment banks that wrote this crap will go under as their would be no market demand for it under such circumstances. The only lender of last resort would be the Fed and FCBs. The fundamentals teach us that the Fed's balance sheet is far too small to bail out such an event. The Fed's response against such a deflation scare would be to expand money supply like never seen before in US history. Ultimately, this would lead to hyper-inflation which is where the fundamentals are telling us we are headed. As I continue to warn, market volatility will continue to grow as these events take place. As usual, investors will run back and forth across the deck of fear and greed shouting sell!! buy!!, buy!! sell!!, inflation!!, no deflation!!, no inflation!! and so on. Yawn... Long term investors that follow the fundamentals accumulating Gold and "PM free shares" on the inevitable, significant dips will be well rewarded. I've posted a monthly chart several times in the past showing the 30-year T-bond:3-month T-bill yield spread ratio and its relationship to gold, HUI, etc. My view is that when "support the financial system/housing" rate cuts begin in the summer, the inverted yield curve will continue reversing to positive as the long rates rise from the inflation/financial turbulence/FCB diversification. Gold will continue rising in all currencies as FCBs devalue attempting to continue to support/arrest the slide in the $USD. The coming Fed re-inflation will eventually be ultra bullish for gold, ultimately bearish for the $USD. Expect volatility. As for the "here-and-now": Deflation charts put in a nice bounce after today's big sell-off in gold. Expect a retest on lower volume within a couple days. I'm fully long here but then again with a long term perspective I'm comfortable holding through the inevitable volatile corrections. As for the "here-after": the pretty table dancer replied "Yes, I do believe in it, and I winked "then you know what I'm here-after." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted March 2, 2007 Report Share Posted March 2, 2007 Knock, Knock, Knock . . . Who's there? Ezra . . . Ezra who? Ezra NoHope for us gold bugs? Uh, welp looks like everyone is out enjoying the afternoon/evening. I've had some time to spend reviewing the charts. We're approaching an XAU:GOLD buy level and wanted to share this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted March 2, 2007 Report Share Posted March 2, 2007 NIce chart and thanks for sharing that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 NIce chart and thanks for sharing that! 564856[/snapback] Thank you hedonic. I believe we're close, this week is the low. goobsout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 SMSC. I hope you didn't draw blood over at GE. Good for you. I think dumb is forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Dollar says we're still long gold - Daily Chart has not broken support: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Final chart for now - not sure if the place I'll be staying over the weekend (Molokai) has interbet service. Have a nice weekend! gooberoverandout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 3, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Ok, I'll admit I need to pay more attention to my PnF charts for potential and looking for exits when the potential is met. In this case I posted a PnF chart for HUI to 368 using a 21 count on Feb. 21. Looking over the chart, I believe I could have shortened up a bit on that assessment. Also, we knew it was closing in on resistance near the 360 area, along with PnF potentials being met on the stock market as a whole. I was looking at SPX potentials at 1435, 1455 and ultimately at 1475. If you look at Feb. 23 on HUI you will see a shortened thrust day with a low close and two days where it could not get over the high. That potential sot near resistance was the key there. The Chinese reaction provided ease of movement down. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1172902909.png We'll have to watch for supply drying up now. Certainly would have been nice to jump in on a short right at the Feb. 23 sot day. There ya go; now you know anticipation can create good opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 XAU: You can try to paint a face on this pig, but.... The P&F shows massive historical support and resistance at 130-132. But it's on a sell signal targeting 114. Curiously, the weekly chart has a funky-looking trend channel that says the same. I've tried to label the moves to correspond with the trendlines and MACD. Based on this analysis, we should impulse down in a fairly significant "C" wave. The daily chart not only shows the violation of the short term trendline, but also shows that everything off the January lows has been overlapped. Thus, the move off January cannot have been an impulse as every conceivable 1st wave has been overlapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted March 3, 2007 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 interesting chart posted up the other week..... very astute assessment. 564713[/snapback] I don't have a Golden Globe award to hand out, but I hand it to him for the assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faramir Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 i think the lows of this move may have occured, although i see gold is down another $4 tonight. i dont think that if these lows are taken out , i dont think we go as low as you state above, but i have been wrong before and i .......... dharma 564521[/snapback] I think any of us not in cash made a the most terrible investment for a number of years. Gold stocks have been hit harder than the broad market, twice as bad, and gold has collapsed! It looks like the Dow is starting its descent to 7000. Technically, not looking good either. All uptrend lines in the short and medium term have been violated. Oct lows will be tested in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faramir Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 The problem with Sinclair is he sets gold targets, and when they are not met in his time frame, he starts blaming manipulators. I would be tempted to buy here, if the markets weren't collapsing in general. We saw this week that gold stocks will actually lose twice to three times the value of the broad markets (percentage wise) - and gold will collapse as well - so much for being a safe haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 SSRI: A bad day. Is there another way to take a 6% daily hit any other way? And it's violated its short term trendline. But it's entered a huge consolidation zone. And volume looks like capitualtion. I didn't sell this position although I cleared out of CDE and AEM. I actually took a small position long in AUY which I'd sold for a nice pofit a few weeks back. And I'm prepared to buy further weakness in SSRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xzorro Posted March 3, 2007 Report Share Posted March 3, 2007 Of course, "it ain't over till the fat lady sings...." . However, are we close ? The PofGold and the PM stocks take a beating. As we all know that is healthy, because then we know properly the support and resistance. At this stage we don't know, what is to come, hence we must be careful with conclusions. Anyway at this stage Yamana AUY is one of the few PM stocks with a s.p. still above the 50-DMA. E.g. for other leading PM stock like SSRI: the s.p. has fallen well below the 50-DMA. Also noteworthy is that the AUY s.p. has yesterday made an intraday Low @ 13.38. Then the s.p. bounced back to close @ 13.77. Hence, it looks like that (for the time being) the High (@13.80) of early December is the horizontal Support. This support has been tested for the last 4 days - with heavy volume. Also the MT Uptrend line from early October is support. Interesting to note that the RSI for AUY is around 50, so that is a sign of Relative Strength. The PnF bullish Price Objective is 25 - FWIW. It goes without saying that it would be quite positive, if these support levels can be maintained. BTW Did you guys see the recent 48-page Citigroup report on Commodities ? As such I don't care too much about these reports, it is sort of PoV. Still it was interesting to see that Citigroup/ Bloomberg is negative on Silver and Uranium but bullish on Gold for the next 3 years. So, let us wait and see, but I won't not be surprised, if we have had the Low for Yamana on Friday. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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