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Monthly Digger - February 2007


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Perfect setup to bust out all of the new specs in gold today. gotta be very experienced to stomach these declines and to understand the true psychology of what is happening in the gold/silver market at the moment. SLV pulled back to its 15 EMA and snaped right back. let's see if prices can recover a bit by the close of open-outcry.. <_<

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Dharma:

How would you know if my count became favoured? IN other words a simple 2 in your count versus a C down in mine?

This did look a bit impulsive down this am, and i see some complacency around...

color me worried that we could see 290 HUI

hedo, its a possibility. my favored count is we finished a 5 and this is the correction.

i have been saying ad nauseum, this is a high level consolidation which will serve as a base for a big upmove. i think we are there 3of 3. there is an alternate which makes me more conservative,ala the 730, when that is taken out then we can talk about projections

realist the similarity of 79 - today is uncanny. thanks  dharma

557667[/snapback]

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appreantl;y a hedge fund blow up

 

quote=Private Skidmark,Feb 2 2007, 11:40 AM]

I wish I understood what was happening. Shorts creating one last opportunity to cover lower to avoid having their nads handed to them? A hedge fund imploding? New longs getting cold feet? No clue. But I'm holding long for now. And hoping. Which is dangerous. :mellow:

557725[/snapback]

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Another hedge fund in trouble, in the metals markets.

But if that explains the move of today ??

 

http://tinyurl.com/yt8lab

 

Red Kite to extend redemption notice period

High-flying, $1 bln metals trading hedge fund lost as much as 15% in January

_____________________________________________________________________

Red Kite to extend redemption notice period

High-flying, $1 bln metals trading hedge fund lost as much as 15% in January

By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch

Last Update: 6:13 PM ET Feb 1, 2007

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Red Kite Management, a $1 billion metals trading hedge fund, wants to extend the notice period for investor redemptions after losses of as much as 15% in January, according to documents obtained by MarketWatch and people familiar with the firm's performance.

Red Kite, run by Michael Farmer, Oskar Lewnowski and David Lilley, asked investors in its metals fund to approve an amendment that would require 45 days notice before money can be withdrawn, according to a copy of a Jan. 31 letter from the firm. Previously, investors could redeem at the end of each quarter with 15 days' notice.

The change will mean that investors have to send redemption notices to Red Kite by Feb. 15 to get their money back at the end of the first quarter, the letter explained.

"Given the current size of the fund we believe that to maintain efficient operation it is necessary to increase the withdrawal notice period," the firm said.

Hedge funds sometimes extend redemption notice periods if they're expecting large investor withdrawals. By getting more advanced notice, funds have more time to sell positions and return investors' money in an orderly fashion.

It's not clear whether any Red Kite investors want to redeem. A representative at the firm's New York office declined to comment and said Lewnowski wasn't available to comment.

Red Kite has made millions of dollars betting on the price of metals such as copper since it was founded in January 2005. Last year, returns generated by the firm's Compass fund topped 90%.

However, after hitting highs in December, copper prices have slumped more than 20%. Copper for March delivery traded as high as $3.29 a pound intraday in December, then fell as low as $2.48 in January. It's now trading around $2.53 a pound.

Red Kite lost as much as 15% in January, according to three people familiar with the firm's performance. Losses exceeded 2% in December, according to a performance update from Red Kite's Compass fund that was obtained by MarketWatch.

Red Kite partner Lilley told reporters at a commodities conference in Shanghai last week that copper prices had fallen further than he'd expected, suggesting it was a good time to buy the metal. End of Story

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helio,on my hourly charts i draw gann angles down off the 12/28 and 1/3 highs and the lows today caught those angles and bounced as expected. also i use a simple 89 hour moving average on these hourly charts and its @137.35. so that too should be support. the market is above the up angles from the low. and lastly i watch the structure of this decline and so far not enough info to draw conclusions, but judging by the fear you are exhibiting, i would say the correction is serving its purpose. this is a long term bull market. buy weakness, not sell it! i have been trading since 79 and fell that i am fairly experienced, so i will wait out this decline. we are not Dover Sole on the hourlies. so i think more pain, but it could end by next week. dharma

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Got GOLD and SILVER ?????? $245,000,000,000 .. !!!!

 

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration will ask for another $100 billion for military and diplomatic operations in Iraq and Afghanistan this year and seek $145 billion for 2008, a senior administration official said Friday.....

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