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Abby Justa Colon

Weekly Signals

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The weekly view still looks pretty bleak right here. The 26 week ema flattened out with a slight downside bias. Although the Force Index bounced, its still well below the zero line. I added a longer time frame MACD that shows the decline  intact...the shorter time MACD shows the slight uptick of last week, but still on the negative side.

 

Playing from the short side only.

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No change....seems like a lot of big swings last week for a measly -.14% move. :huh: Then again it was OPEX week.

 

The 26 week ema still can't make up its mind.... ever so slight down bias.

A touch of the 4 to the 20 week ema this past week. A cross of the 26 week would confirm the down move. Last crossover of the 4 week was early last Sept.

 

The weekly sets the tone and right now it says down.

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The daily (Q's, NDX) shows the bounces to the +50 mark on the CMO 3-day. Usually in down markets the CMO 3-day has a tough time of staying above the +50 for extended periods of time.

Notice the divergence in price and the CMO? As the Q's closed in on the recent lows of March 5th, the CMO traced a more shallow low. Most indicators are showing this divergence as the volume and magnitude of the drop on Feb 27th made many indicators plunge deep .

 

A word of caution: If this is truly a turning point in the market one must be on guard for a possible "testing of a top", or at least a possible revisit to the trading day prices of Feb. 27th.

This may play out with more "grinding" upside.

Something to keep an eye on. <_<

Selling short but with tight stops in this area for the time being.

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A word of caution: If this is truly a turning point in the market one must be on guard for a possible "testing of a top", or at least a possible revisit to the trading day prices of Feb. 27th.

This may play out with more "grinding" upside.

Something to keep an eye on.  <_< 

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Well, that was fun. Once again a huge reversal day eats up any profits. Tough trading in this market. :angry:

 

Lets look at the weekly.

The 26 week MA has turned up slightly. Although the short and long time frame MACD histo have turned up, they are still below zero with no signal line cross yet. Force Index is at a neutral stance.

Leaves us in a tough spot. Just about half of the indicators are pointing up while the other half are pointing down or are still negative. A case could be made for going long or short from the weekly view.

When in doubt....don't. So until this market shows its hand a little more, a good strategy is to observe from the sidelines. If you do take a stand from one side or another one thing rules in this market....and that is sticking with your sound money management (2% rule) to avoid large losses.

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Notice the divergence in price and the CMO? As the Q's  closed in on  the recent lows of March 5th, the CMO traced a more shallow low. Most indicators are showing this divergence as the volume and magnitude of the drop on Feb 27th made many indicators plunge deep .

 

A word of caution: If this is truly a turning point in the market one must be on guard for a possible "testing of a top", or at least a possible revisit to the trading day prices of Feb. 27th.

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Heres the daily view.

The divergence played out to the upside as it should. <_< The long term CMO is still in negative territory. The 11-day ma has touched but not crossed the 34-day. Volume has shrunk from that monster volume of 2/27. Prices have re-tested the prices of 2/27 as discussed last week. The 3-day CMO tagged the extreme and pulled back.

Lets see if prices can penetrate the gap from 2/27. Volume is a key here. Volume needs to expand on the way up to confirm the trend.

Caution: End of month and end of quarter on tap this coming week. We may see some more wild swings as the funds position themselves for their quarterly updates.

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Sox update...close-up view of our beloved Sox. As mentioned before, the Sox should give us a clue to the trend of the Naz. Keep an eye on them.  :blink:

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Not much new here, but none the less we gotta watch it. ;)

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Although the short and long time frame MACD histo have turned up, they are still below zero with  no signal line cross yet. Force Index is at a neutral stance.

Leaves us in a tough spot. Just about half of the indicators are pointing up while the other half are pointing down or are still negative. A case could be made for going long or short from the weekly view.

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The short term MACD started to turn down this past week...ever so slightly. The longer term MACD has pretty much stalled out. The 26 week ma looks to want to flatten out again. Force Index made a small move lower and is still below the zero "sell/buy line".

 

All in all not a bad week for the bear plays, but still no real direction in this market. ;)

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Daily Q's (NDX)

The CMO 3-day took a decent slide down. The 11/34 ma's are at a crossroads so to speak. The last green peak on the CMO will be a tough act to follow and should prices gain strength here a nice divergence should develop.

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Markets closed for Good Friday. 4 day trading week.

 

Lets look at the weekly. Decent up move this week changed some indicators a little.

 

Long term (26 week) moving average turned up this week. Also the short term MACD crossed above the zero line and poked above its signal line. Longer term MACD has turned back up, but still has not crossed its signal line and the histo is still below the zero line. Force Index has just peeked its head above the zero line.

 

All in all the weekly is looking much better here. As long as the weekly points up, we will be trading from the long (buy) side only- but with caution- and looking for over sold buy points from the daily charts.

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Heres the daily...got the 11/34 moving average cross, but of concern here is the lack of volume....

 

Looking for upticks from Dover Sole conditions in the CMO 3-day. During a bull market, any touch of -50 or below is considered Dover Sole. Since the weekly is not yet in 100% firm bull territory...its a good idea to let the market come to you in the form of -50 or greater CMO 3-day...this is not a good time to chase anything.

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