Weekly Signals

[Abby Justa Colon]

All in all the index is working off some deeply over--sold conditions on the weekly charts. We are still firmly in the grasp of the bear at this point as defined with the 26 week ema pointing down. Note the last couple of times the ST MACD histo went positive, it lasted from 3 weeks to 12 weeks....so we must be on guard for more than just a week of positive or sideways movement here.

Weekly Update: I'll have to keep it brief.

All that movement in the past week for a measly -.66%. In week two of the ST MACD histo turning positive as noted last week. Lots of positive divergences showing up across most indicators....looking to fill the air gap in the moving averages. 26 week ema still pointing down. The Bradley pivot turn date is 12/14. We touched on the Bradley in weeks past, but I only bring it up when the turns are listed as "major" turn dates. There is a window of 4-7 days, so we are in the window now. This year only had two such dates, the last one was June 7th.

Thats not to say the markets will turn "up" near the turn date, it could very well turn back down harder....its just another thing we must keep an eye on.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Same situation as last week with the chart site at WallStreetTape

Looks like Doc's chart service is gone...I'll just post a Bigcharts for now.

Still no charts from WallStreetTape.

 

Daily....divergences are starting to play out to the upside.

MACD signal line and momentum scale are looking to break the zero line...something they have been away from in quite some time. RSI looks to break the 50 zone.

We are ripe for a super short squeeze (SSS) day....keep an eye out for a possible big day to the upside as the market works off the deep over-sold conditions.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Weekly Update: I'll have to keep it brief.

All that movement in the past week for a measly -.66%. In week two of the ST MACD histo turning positive as noted last week. Lots of positive divergences showing up across most indicators....looking to fill the air gap in the moving averages. 26 week ema still pointing down. The Bradley pivot turn date is 12/14. We touched on the Bradley in weeks past, but I only bring it up when the turns are listed as "major" turn dates. There is a window of 4-7 days, so we are in the window now. This year only had two such dates, the last one was June 7th.

Thats not to say the markets will turn "up" near the turn date, it could very well turn back down harder....its just another thing we must keep an eye on.

Missed posting last week as I was super busy.

 

Index up a measly .87% on a news filled week with the Fed lowering rates, the auto bail-loans and OPEX Friday.

 

We are still in the countertrend, sideways up (SWUP) movement that started four weeks ago.

Note the ST MACD histo has been positive during that time while the LT histo is still climbing out of its hole.

The Sto had a pop above the 50 line.

The big air circle seems to be trying to close the air loss with the 4 week ema moving up.

The all important 26 week ema is still pointing down.

I would look for the 26 week to start flattening out soon with any more upside here.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily Update..

 

Still can't load Doc's chart service with the CMO charts.

I'll use Bigcharts again with a chart of the NDX instead of the Q's.

 

11/34 ema cross close but not yet.

MACD has been moving upward and the signal line is starting to break the zero line here. Note the last time it did in August for several weeks and then gave a beautiful signal with the crossover to go short.

The wedge I drew could probably be drawn several different ways, it looks to want to break out here and did actually break the one apex, but remember that we are in a bear market and must respect both pivots. Also remember that moves out of the very tip of the wedge (apex) seldom produce big moves and often give us false rallies....so be on you toes if trading this move.

It could easily move up or down in the light holiday trading. A Santa rally could break it to the upside, likewise some tax-loss selling going into the end of the year could push it lower.

RSI hanging around the bull/bear 50 line.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Missed posting last week as I was super busy.

 

Index up a measly .87% on a news filled week with the Fed lowering rates, the auto bail-loans and OPEX Friday.

 

We are still in the countertrend, sideways up (SWUP) movement that started four weeks ago.

Note the ST MACD histo has been positive during that time while the LT histo is still climbing out of its hole.

The Sto had a pop above the 50 line.

The big air circle seems to be trying to close the air loss with the 4 week ema moving up.

The all important 26 week ema is still pointing down.

I would look for the 26 week to start flattening out soon with any more upside here.

 

Hope everyone had a Happy Holiday Season so far regardless of your religion.

 

Ho-Hum week for the markets as the index slipped 2.6% on extremely thin holiday volume.

 

Note the ST MACD took a decline, although it is still in positive territory. It could meander in the positive area for several weeks (SWUP action) before falling back down.

LT MACD signal line looks like it wants to cross, that would be a positive for the bulls.

26 week ema still pointing down, suggesting not to get too carried away with the bull fever talk.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Daily Update..

 

Still can't load Doc's chart service with the CMO charts.

I'll use Bigcharts again with a chart of the NDX instead of the Q's.

 

11/34 ema cross close but not yet.

MACD has been moving upward and the signal line is starting to break the zero line here. Note the last time it did in August for several weeks and then gave a beautiful signal with the crossover to go short.

The wedge I drew could probably be drawn several different ways, it looks to want to break out here and did actually break the one apex, but remember that we are in a bear market and must respect both pivots. Also remember that moves out of the very tip of the wedge (apex) seldom produce big moves and often give us false rallies....so be on you toes if trading this move.

It could easily move up or down in the light holiday trading. A Santa rally could break it to the upside, likewise some tax-loss selling going into the end of the year could push it lower.

RSI hanging around the bull/bear 50 line.

 

Wedge play(s) still valid. Could still be drawn several ways as suggested last week.

11/34 emas can't get to a crossover but...its very close, one big up day would do it for the bull case.

MACD signal line and RSI can't seem to show much momentum over their bull/bear lines.

 

Probably not many upgrades/downgrades this week as many are on holiday break. Possible portfolio re-balancing later in the week, but probably won't see much until the first full week in January. Tax-loss selling would probably be just about done one would think...only a few days left.

 

Have a Happy New Year!!

[Abby Justa Colon]

Note the ST MACD took a decline, although it is still in positive territory. It could meander in the positive area for several weeks (SWUP action) before falling back down.

LT MACD signal line looks like it wants to cross, that would be a positive for the bulls.

26 week ema still pointing down, suggesting not to get too carried away with the bull fever talk.

Weekly Update:

Nice pop in the index, up an impressive 6.6%

LT MACD got its signal line cross on Friday---ever so slightly but it did cross.

LT histo turned positive--first time since August '08.

Note the Sto gunning for the "80" line....above the 80 mark generally indicates a very bullish market is at hand. A break back down through the line from above is very bearish. It can meander above the line for some time....so beware.

The all important 26 week ema is still pointing down.

 

Chart can't be uploaded at this time....I will try later.

 

 

Just a Note: Starting with the new year, I will post on this thread only when I see a major trend change develop, not on a weekly basis. Between having trouble posting charts and/or not being able to use Doc's charting service anymore (its been out of service for months, although the link is still there at the top of this page), I have begun to run out of time to be able to post on a weekly time frame. At some point in time, I hope to go back to a weekly forum, but for now I will try it this way.

 

If you have been following this thread from the start, you get the general theme behind my trading system and should be able to quickly tell if we are in a bull or bear market and trade in the direction of that trend.

 

Good Luck!!

[Abby Justa Colon]

If you have been following this thread from the start, you get the general theme behind my trading system and should be able to quickly tell if we are in a bull or bear market and trade in the direction of that trend.

 

Good Luck!! [/color][/b][/size]

I've been busy this year and haven't visited CS in some time, but thought with all the market noise of late we should step back and look at the big picture.

From the weekly chart perspective, we are still deep in a bear market. As we discussed many pages ago, bear markets can stage some pretty impressive rallies.

Take a look at the weekly S&P chart. Note the positive divergences that developed at the late February lows indicating that the market would soon turn up....and it did. Also note the volume increase at those lows indicating that we will most likely will be re-visiting those lows at some point down the road. Also at some point, I would expect prices to tag the 26 week ema and possibly even tag the 60 week. So we must keep in mind that prices can go higher and still be in a bear market.

 

Bottom line is: Even with the big move up this past month and many anal cysts saying the bottom is in, we are still well within a bear market so trade accordingly.

 

I'll try to keep an update on this thread when possible.

 

Good Luck!!