Ageka Posted January 3, 2007 Report Share Posted January 3, 2007 Do you still like Kinross now that is has Russian exposure with Bema? I started with Echo Bay in 1998 like and lost 90% of the first purchase cost averaging all the way down I am now up at 200 % of the purchase cost In my strategy started 1998 Kinross is a sell of 20% of the shares at the upper trendline to be replaced by a junior canadian to be identified My current problem child is Drooy but on the last purchase I am 7 % up I have a strategy that worked fine in the 1975 - 1980 timeframe moving from solid to risky spreading over countries and having physical gold and finally moving into options ( no margin calls ) For an investor it seems best to have a simple strategy and stick to that strategy especially if every roundtrip purchase-sell costs 3% or more I have seen leadership rotate and shares revert to the mean I am committed since 1998 to the gold bull But it seems that Kinross and Harmony are today the two out of four best shares I have Problem is that from 5 shares on you are allready tracking market movements like 85% and you could as well just take any gold tracker index and save yourselve the trouble of selecting individual stocks This all being said I think that the Russians who have just found the benefits of capitalism worry me a lot less then South America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted January 3, 2007 Report Share Posted January 3, 2007 BV: It appears that you are disagreeing with Rosen that the ABC is complete then? And could this not be seen as an abcde we are now in e off the top in XAU? XAU: My bearish count is gaining ascendency. The chart below is the weekly, though the comments relate, generally, to the daily charts of the individual components The failure to take out 153.15 has put a lot of trend oscillators--and especially Aroon--on sell signals. My on balance volume indicators are very bearish. In both cases, this could be a function of the holidays. Moreover, the double doji's (on many ot the component charts though not on XAU itself) over the last two trading days are ominous. I'm beginning to think that wave 2 is not over. After an impulse up, we have 2 abc's on the chart-one up and one down. It could be a WXY--3 abc's indicating a much lower market. Judging by the trendlines, I'm looking for an irregular flat. This last move down will be a sharp, but brief impulse down---a 3-3-5 overall. Possibly a bottom in mid-January between 126 and 137. The daily shows an unfilled gap at 126.29 to 126.51. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted January 3, 2007 Report Share Posted January 3, 2007 also, why do you set the range as 137-126? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 XAU: If the May high was a 3rd wave, we could see an abcde. Triangles form in 4th waves. My broad targets of 137 to 126 were a range between a 38% correction of the rally off the October bottom to a decline to the gap in the 126's. I think the May high was wave 1. Since then, we've had an abc down and an abc up. That means that we're either in a WXY (abc/abc/abc) or a flat (3-3-5). The weekly shows a rising trendline at around 130-32. The P&F shows an attraction zone around 130-32. 130ish is around a 61.8% retracement of the rally off the October lows. That's where I intend to buy. I think the pattern will be an irregular flat, with a brief but scary impulse down to that level. If we take out the trendline, there's a gap around 125.41 to 126.45. The actual vacuum is from 126.29 to 126.51. If Y=W, we could see 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 XAU: Here's the case for 100 on the XAU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 HUI: I don't subscribe to the "triangle" analysis. A triangle would violate the long term uptrend line. The downside risk is now less than 10%. The upside is tremendous as we move into wave 3 after this dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 BV; using a linear XAU chart we are backtesting the breakout line from the May highs is all here....take a gander at 2003-2004 august-sept and 2001 dec-jan for comparisons...we will know shortly...in those periods the backtest appeared to fail by a couple % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 Bearvest would it be able for you to comment on attached charts ? As I understand it they are the official Elliot wave charts free for once in German According to this we are ready for wave iii of 5 I asked Seven and he says the timing and the graphics make this a " lower wave" count We both agree the max cannot be in 2007 If wave 1-2-3-4-5 of this graph become a wave I of an higher order is there a possibility to time III or V in time or price ? Scroll to the second chart first for an overview Thanks http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/...hp?storyid=3725 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 ageka, that count is a low probability! and since gold does not make a new high w/their projected top for 5, its a correction within a bear market for them, which i dont think will be true! i am looking for a low the 17-22 of jan. xau-131 hui=303.74. i am still counting the oct. low as the end of the abc. and the rally as a wave 1 and this as wave c of 2. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hadjin Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 NAK .. retraced to $7.08 .. I'll buy as close to there as possible. If I'm way offbase and thinking foolish, anybody feel free to let me know.. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 HUI: I don't subscribe to the "triangle" analysis. A triangle would violate the long term uptrend line. The downside risk is now less than 10%. The upside is tremendous as we move into wave 3 after this dip. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Stellar analysis BV; I get 319 or 308 (50 and 62% retraces off 10/06 low; 308 is 60mPnF target; so far, 319 held). GFI is lowest risk here; look at the monthly; revisiting the base breakout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 last chance saloon for GLD. If it holds the bottom channel then 67-68 is still probable although a close under the channel is likely to bring much lower prices.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 I think that the move off the october low was an impulse, a wave 1 of 1 of this next move up. I think we are now in C of 2 of 1. Alternately, it could be as bearvest is counting. Either way, not much downside left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faramir Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 Do you still like Kinross now that is has Russian exposure with Bema? I started with Echo Bay in 1998 like and lost 90% of the first purchase cost averaging all the way down I am now up at 200 % of the purchase cost In my strategy started 1998 Kinross is a sell of 20% of the shares at the upper trendline to be replaced by a junior canadian to be identified My current problem child is Drooy but on the last purchase I am 7 % up I have a strategy that worked fine in the 1975 - 1980 timeframe moving from solid to risky spreading over countries and having physical gold and finally moving into options ( no margin calls ) For an investor it seems best to have a simple strategy and stick to that strategy especially if every roundtrip purchase-sell costs 3% or more I have seen leadership rotate and shares revert to the mean I am committed since 1998 to the gold bull But it seems that Kinross and Harmony are today the two out of four best shares I have Problem is that from 5 shares on you are allready tracking market movements like 85% and you could as well just take any gold tracker index and save yourselve the trouble of selecting individual stocks This all being said I think that the Russians who have just found the benefits of capitalism worry me a lot less then South America <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Both nations worry me, but Russia more, since it is becoming apparent it is regarded by Putin as his little KGB fiefdom. Nationalization of mining assets doesn't appear to be far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 4, 2007 Report Share Posted January 4, 2007 ageka, that count is a low probability! and since gold does not make a new high w/their projected top for 5, its a correction within a bear market for them, which i dont think will be true!i am looking for a low the 17-22 of jan. xau-131 hui=303.74. i am still counting the oct. low as the end of the abc. and the rally as a wave 1 and this as wave c of 2. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Part of Seven's answer was following his five would give us one large bowl shape from the 1980 high and I'm betting it acts like a huge scallop -- in this case making a huge cup with handle On a more practical basis we are now in day 34 of what still is a nominal 107 day cycle having had a short and a long cycle since the highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.