24-Hour Bailout

[wndysrf]

All eyes are on the Thai government, which in effect bailed itself out by retracting their statement within 24 hours.

 

Funny how the "Thai Debacle" really only lasted a few hours on the open yesterday, as the Bulge Firms took the clue that any and all crises will be met instantaneously with some "words" or behind the scenes pumping.

 

Just goes to show that the PigMen still have an ongoing signal to freely speculate, borrow in Yen and invest in Euroland stocks, emerging markets, junk bonds, and credit products.

 

Unfortunately, U.S. stocks are on the last of the list as favored investments, and they continue to underperform by a wide margin, even though the Dow seems to make new highs every day.

 

Here were the excuses proffered by the WSJ today as to why the Thai currency crash had no impact on other markets:

 

"Today, in most cases, that debt has either been paid down or converted to longer maturities, and thus isn't a threat. What's more, Asian economies are now robust, fueled by years of expansion and strong global consumption of commodities and manufactured goods, particularly by ever-larger China, one of Asia's biggest customers."

 

"Jonathan Anderson, chief economist for Asia at UBS, noted that Thailand's interest rates are comparatively higher than its neighbors, adding to the appeal of the baht and the difficulty the Thai authorities face in slowing its ascent."

 

"Asia-based economists say they don't expect severe or extended fallout in other markets because of the unique circumstances affecting Thailand. The Thai currency has appreciated faster than other Asian currencies partly because its stock market is undervalued compared with some of its neighbors. Yesterday, central banks in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines quickly said they would continue to let markets determine the value of their currencies and wouldn't emulate Thailand's policies."

 

"One market that wasn't affected by Thailand's moves was China's: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at a fourth straight record high."

 

....................................

 

Oh, well.........

 

I'm headed back east for the holidays, so no M2M for a few days because I'll be travelling.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all Riverboaters!!!

[DrStool]

If any moderators are around tomorrow to open an M2M thread, please do so. I will be on the road. Will check in tomorrow nicht.

[I_Am_Madness]

If any moderators are around tomorrow to open an M2M thread, please do so.  I will be on the road. Will check in tomorrow nicht.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I'll be around....doh! I'm not a moderator.

[LeeWhee]

All eyes are on the Thai government, which in effect bailed itself out by retracting their statement within 24 hours.

 

Funny how the "Thai Debacle" really only lasted a few hours on the open yesterday, as the Bulge Firms took the clue that any and all crises will be met instantaneously with some "words" or behind the scenes pumping.

 

Just goes to show that the PigMen still have an ongoing signal to freely speculate, borrow in Yen and invest in Euroland stocks, emerging markets, junk bonds, and credit products.

 

Unfortunately, U.S. stocks are on the last of the list as favored investments, and they continue to underperform by a wide margin, even though the Dow seems to make new highs every day.

 

Here were the excuses proffered by the WSJ today as to why the Thai currency crash  had no impact on other markets:

 

"Today, in most cases, that debt has either been paid down or converted to longer maturities, and thus isn't a threat. What's more, Asian economies are now robust, fueled by years of expansion and strong global consumption of commodities and manufactured goods, particularly by ever-larger China, one of Asia's biggest customers."

 

"Jonathan Anderson, chief economist for Asia at UBS, noted that Thailand's interest rates are comparatively higher than its neighbors, adding to the appeal of the baht and the difficulty the Thai authorities face in slowing its ascent."

 

"Asia-based economists say they don't expect severe or extended fallout in other markets because of the unique circumstances affecting Thailand. The Thai currency has appreciated faster than other Asian currencies partly because its stock market is undervalued compared with some of its neighbors. Yesterday, central banks in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines quickly said they would continue to let markets determine the value of their currencies and wouldn't emulate Thailand's policies."

 

"One market that wasn't affected by Thailand's moves was China's: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at a fourth straight record high."

 

     

....................................

 

Oh, well.........

 

I'm headed back east for the holidays, so no M2M for a few days because I'll be travelling.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all Riverboaters!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

That Euro/Yen ratio chart now getting very close to the level from July 1998 (1.61). Current ratio is 1.56, although was 1.58 earlier this week.

 

The last three peaks and subsequent sharp turndowns in the Euro/Yen ratio were: Jun 1992, Jul 1998, Jun 2003.

 

Each of these were followed by SPX corrections: -8% from Jul-Oct 1992, -23% from Jul-Oct 1998, -5.5% from Jun-Aug 2003.

 

The Nikkei was harder to figure.

 

In 1992, it actually bottomed in Aug, then rallied 35% from Aug-Sep while the SPX was in decline.

 

In 1998, both the SPX and Nikkei fell 23-24% b/w Jul-Oct.

 

In 2003, both the SPX and Nikkei went into consolidation mode for 2-3 months.

 

Don't know where or when the Euro/Yen ratio tops, but 1.61 (the Jul98) level looks as good as any. If past is prologue, either a sharp selloff or multi-month consolidation is dead ahead pending the topping of the Euro/Yen ratio.

 

Assuming this chart has any predictive value, of course.

[LeeWhee]

Here's a potentially interesting chart.

 

IO (Input Output Inc) is considered a tech stock, but they actually provide seismic services to oil and gas companies worldwide.

 

It has ramped 20%+ this month, straight to major-mega-resistance at 13.25-14.25. High so far was 13.87.

 

A move thru resistance would likely attract mo-mo monkeys, if it hasn't already. So that might be prone to failure. Or the run to resistance (established in 1994, 1997 and again in 2001) might be the end of the ride.

 

But should IO ultimately get thru 13.25-14.25 in a non-freakshow fashion, could end up with much higher targets in the 22-25 range. Worth keeping on radar screen. Can't imagine seismic energy work will fall out of favor anytime soon.

[wndysrf]

Boom Times continue to roll in SoCal.

 

One of my customers just hit another huge home run in real estate.

 

He bought a bunch of acreage in Hesperia, CA 5 years ago for $175,000.

 

Just sold it for $950,000 to an Indian Casino, who is going to build on the property.

 

He promptly turned in his Mercedes S600 coupe and bought a $200,000 2007 Bentley Silver Spur.

 

While he was at the Rusnak dealer, he checked out the Bentley convertibles first.

 

No way.

 

All models are sold out for the next three years.

 

Salesmen said that the selling price was about $20,000 - $30,000 over MSRP.

 

So he had to settle on the black on black Silver Spur instead.

 

V-12 Twin Turbo. He let me drive it.

 

In a word....

 

UNREAL!!!!

[wndysrf]

Everybody is poo-poohing the gold stocks today.

 

Check these out. They barely moved.

 

Buying on all XAU pullbacks, those which are showing relative strength.

 

 

 

 

[LeeWhee]

Boom Times continue to roll in SoCal.

 

One of my customers just hit another huge home run in real estate.

 

He bought a bunch of acreage in Hesperia, CA 5 years ago for $175,000.

 

Just sold it for $950,000 to an Indian Casino, who is going to build on the property.

 

He promptly turned in his Mercedes S600 coupe and bought a $200,000 2007 Bentley Silver Spur.

 

While he was at the Rusnak  dealer, he checked out the Bentley convertibles first.

 

No way.

 

All models are sold out for the next three years.

 

Salesmen said that the selling price was about $20,000 - $30,000 over MSRP.

 

So he had to settle on the black on black Silver Spur instead.

 

V-12 Twin Turbo.  He let me drive it.

 

In a word....

 

UNREAL!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Somehow the word "casino" crops up in nearly every story related to our lovely boom. Whether it's the stock market, the "casino mentality" of home flippers, or literally casinos themselves.

 

This will all end very, very well.

[The End]

Tzu wanted to know about a Zinc stocks. LMC is one.

[The End]

I should be here tomorrow but it will be at around 4:15 est. I'll open if nobody else does.

[The End]

Another big stock sells off in AH. NKE. It does not seem to matter. The market is like the enrgizer bunny.

[wndysrf]

No change in the p/c MA's today.

 

Everything from the 10-day all the way out to the 360-day are still locked over .90

 

Rydex continues to grind up, following the SPX.

 

I doubt it will ever invert again like the old days, too much competition w/ the ProFund ETF's.

[realist]

Be sure to keep an eye on Uncle Buck during the holidaze.. Another PigShank maneuver may be in the offering..

[wndysrf]

Up 33% today.

 

[The End]

THIS IS KIND OF LONG BUT IT IS SO GOOD, IT'S A MUST READ.

This is a wonderful piece by Michael Gartner, editor of newspapers large and small and president of NBC News. In 1997, he won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing. Well worth reading, and a few good laughs are guaranteed.

 

My father never drove a car. Well, that's not quite right. I should say I never saw him drive a car. He quit driving in 1927, when he was 25 years old, and the last car he drove was a 1926 Whippet.

 

"In those days," he told me when he was in his 90s, "to drive a car you had to do things with your hands, and do things with your feet, and look every which way, and I decided you could walk through life and enjoy it or drive through life and miss it."

 

At which point my mother, a sometimes salty Irishwoman, chimed in: "Oh, bull----!" she said. "He hit a horse."

 

"Well," my father said, "there was that, too."

 

So my brother and I grew up in a household without a car. The neighbors all had cars -- the Kollingses next door had a green 1941 Dodge, the VanLaninghams across the street a gray 1936 Plymouth, the Hopsons two doors down a black 1941 Ford -- but we had none.

 

My father, a newspaperman in Des Moines , would take the streetcar to work and, often as not, walk the 3 miles home. If he took the streetcar home, my mother and brother and I would walk the three blocks to the streetcar stop, meet him and walk home together.

 

My brother, David, was born in 1935, and I was born in 1938, and sometimes, at dinner, we'd ask how come all the neighbors had cars but we had none. "No one in the family drives," my mother would explain, and that was that. But, sometimes, my father would say, "But as soon as one of you boys turns 16, we'll get one." It was as if he wasn't sure which one of us would turn 16 first.

 

But, sure enough, my brother turned 16 before I did, so in 1951 my parents bought a used 1950 Chevrolet from a friend who ran the parts department at a Chevy dealership downtown. It was a four-door, white model, stick shift, fender skirts, loaded with everything, and, since my parents didn't drive, it more or less became my brother's car.

 

Having a car but not being able to drive didn't bother my father, but it didn't make sense to my mother. So in 1952, when she was 43 years old, she asked a friend to teach her to drive. She learned in a nearby cemetery, the place where I learned to drive the following year and where, a generation later, I took my two sons to practice driving. The cemetery probably was my father's idea. "Who can your mother hurt in the cemetery?" I remember him saying once.

 

For the next 45 years or so, until she was 90, my mother was the driver in the family. Neither she nor my father had any sense of direction, but he loaded up on maps -- though they seldom left the city limits -- and appointed himself navigator. It seemed to work.

 

Still, they both continued to walk a lot. My mother was a devout Catholic, and my father an equally devout agnostic, an arrangement that didn't seem to bother either of them through their 75 years of marriage. (Yes, 75 years, and they were deeply in love the entire time.) He retired when he was 70, and nearly every morning for the next 20 years or so, he would walk with her the mile to St. Augustin's Church. She would walk down and sit in the front pew, and he would wait in the back until he saw which of the parish's two priests was on duty that morning.

 

If it was the pastor, my father then would go out and take a 2-mile walk, meeting my mo ther at the end of the service and walking her home. If it was the assistant pastor, he'd take just a 1-mile walk and then head back to the church. He called the priests "Father Fast" and "Father Slow."

 

After he retired, my father almost always accompanied my mother whenever she drove anywhere, even if he had no reason to go along. If she were going to the beauty parlor, he'd sit in the car and read, or go take a stroll or, if it was summer, have her keep the engine running so he could listen to the Cubs game on the radio. In the evening, then, when I'd stop by, he'd explain: "The Cubs lost again. The millionaire on second base made a bad throw to the millionaire on first base, so the multimillionaire on third base scored.") If she were going to the grocery store, he would go along to carry the bags out -- and to make sure she loaded up on ice cream.

 

As I said, he was always the navigator, and once, when he was 95 and she was 88 and still driving, he said to me, "Do you want to know the secret of a long life?"

 

"I guess so," I said, knowing it probably would be something bizarre.

 

"No left turns," he said.

 

"What?" I asked.

 

"No left turns," he repeated. "Several years ago, your mother and I read an article that said most accidents that old people are in happen when they turn left in front of oncoming traffic. As you get older, your eyesight worsens, and you can lose your depth perception, it said. So your mother and I decided never again to make a left turn."

 

"What?" I said again.

 

"No left turns," he said. "Think about it. Three rights are the same as a left, and that's a lot safer. So we always make three rights."

 

"You're kidding!" I said, and I turned to my mother for support.

;

"No," she said, "your father is right. We make three rights. It works." But then she added: "Except when your father loses count."

 

I was driving at the time, and I almost drove off the road as I started laughing. "Loses count?" I asked.

 

"Yes," my father admitted, "that sometimes happens. But it's not a problem. You just make seven rights, and you're okay again."

 

I couldn't resist. "Do you ever go for 11?" I asked.

 

"No," he said. "If we miss it at seven, we just come home and call it a bad day. Besides, nothing in life is so important it can't be put off another day or another week."

 

My mother was never in an accident, but one evening she handed me her car keys and said she had decided to quit driving. That was in 1999, when she was 90. She lived four more years, until 2003. My father died the next year, at 102. They both died in the bungalow they had moved into in 1937 and bought a few years later for $3,000. (Sixty years later, my brother and I paid $8,000 to have a shower put in the tiny bathroom -- the house had never had one. My father would have died then and there if he knew the shower cost nearly three times what he paid for the house.) He continued to walk daily -- he had me get him a treadmill when he was 101 because he was afraid he'd fall on the icy sidewalks but wanted to keep exercising -- and he was of sound mind and sound body until the moment he died.

 

One September afternoon in 2004, he and my son went with me when I had to give a talk in a neighboring town, and it was clear to all three of us that he was wearing out, though we had the usual wide- ranging conversation about politics and newspapers and things in the news. A few weeks earlier, he had told my son, "You know, Mike, the first hundred years are a lot easier than the second hundred." At one point in our drive that Saturday, he said, "You know, I'm probably not going to live much longer."

 

"You're probably right," I said.

 

"Why would you say that?" He countered, somewhat irritated.

 

"Because you're 102 years old," I said.

 

"Yes," he said, "you're right." He stayed in bed all the next day.

 

That night, I suggested to my son and daughter that we sit up with him through the night. He appreciated it, he said, though at one point, apparently seeing us look gloomy, he said: "I would like to make an announcement. No one in this room is dead yet."

 

An hour or so later, he spoke his last words: "I want you to know," he said, clearly and lucidly, "that I am in no pain. I am very comfortable. And I have had as happy a life as anyone on this earth could ever have." A short time later, he died.

 

I miss him a lot, and I think about him a lot. I've wondered now and then how it was that my family and I were so lucky that he lived so long. I can't figure out if it was because he walked through life.

 

Or because he quit taking left turns.