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Monthly Digger - October 2006


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fwiw, i dont think hui goes below 270.

 

FWIW ? dharma, IMO, this whole attack on gold and the gold stocks smacks of manipulation prior to the upcoming elections (as many have discussed). It seems that in order to have maximum effect, the market has to perceive a greater danger from deflation than inflation. Since the early May peak in gold, the market has been concerned with deflation as awareness grew concerning the housing bubble peak (July '05) and likely consequence of consumer led '07 recession. The recent "commodities and energy boom are over now," (along with the Iran hype, 15 billion barrel oil hype, etc) presented a good time for the Gold Shorts to make their move.

 

I believe the pendulum is soon to swing back to the realities of inflation (money supply growth-see Japan) for many reasons such as sustained Asian economic growth, energy prices, war, and the inability of the Fed to raise rates because of the housing sector's impact on consumer spending and debt. (It's quite possible to have sustained world economic growth with a slowing US economy per the arguments of Don Coxe and his ilk.)

 

Everyone and his brother are short energy and this is about to change very soon. Gold / pm stocks will be looked upon favorably once again.

 

I'm keeping an eye on the energy sector as I believe this will give us the heads up on the timing of the inflation/deflation perception shift and next leg up in gold. I expect no later than mid October.

 

gooberout :)

 

We're here goobs. I've been backing up the truck with my favorite pms this week along w/ natural gas and oil sands. Can't get enough Minefinders, Petrobank, Connacher, etc. at these recent low prices. Course I'm usually early :rolleyes:

 

Here's one of many charts I follow that I was going to post yesterday and an updated one today.

 

gooberout B)

post-2021-1160076253_thumb.jpg

post-2021-1160076270_thumb.jpg

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Hi Trader -

 

Thanks for the heads up. I have owned Casey's pick BQI (CWPC) in the past and sold after becoming more acquainted with oil sands plays. I'm interested in quality, near-term producers or current production status companies, i.e. CLL, PBG, UTS and the likes... IMO, Connacher is a value play and from a fundamentals point of view, way, way better - don't get me started :>. But for a trading vehicle, Canwest Pete has quite a following and the weekly comparison chart points to it outperforming Connacher.

 

Here is a link to Michael Berry's report on CANWEST:

http://www.buickgroup.com/pdf/060925-berry...corporation.pdf

 

But much prefer:

CLL's presentation at COPIC:

http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEven...eventID=1595880

 

gooberout B)

post-2021-1160089090_thumb.jpg

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Hi Trader -

 

Thanks for the heads up. I have owned Casey's pick BQI (CWPC) in the past and sold after becoming more acquainted with oil sands plays. I'm interested in quality, near-term producers or current production status companies, i.e. CLL, PBG, UTS and the likes... IMO, Connacher is a value play and from a fundamentals point of view, way, way better - don't get me started :>. But for a trading vehicle, Canwest Pete has quite a following and the weekly comparison chart points to it outperforming Connacher.

 

Here is a link to Michael Berry's report on CANWEST:

http://www.buickgroup.com/pdf/060925-berry...corporation.pdf

 

But much prefer:

CLL's presentation at COPIC:

http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEven...eventID=1595880

 

gooberout B)

 

 

Thanks GM. Enjoy the flight.

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CBJ support 3.40

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1160104080.png

 

AUY climax to support with mid range close

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1160104124.png

 

GG, watch for a move to 24 and build sideways cause

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1160104237.png

 

Yes I think HMY is building accumulation cause here

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1160104288.png

 

HUI is building cause once again for the next move after PnF potential used up

 

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1160104377.png

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I was reading that on Oct. 18 there is a CPI number coming out that will show a big decrease in inflation numbers reported

 

if so, the person said to lighten up prior to Oct. 18 for commodity stocks

 

I've decided to pay attention to price, but there is always the potential for price to react to the news.

 

Let's see how things go in the next week

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GOLD:

 

I can't help but analyse the chart bearishly.

 

I know the miners rocketed up Wednesday (but so did the broads). It all seems like a bit of Bernanke news noise to me.

 

The daily shows a two day pennant after the triangle breakdown.

 

So I guess I'm a Canadian from Missouri.

post-1352-1160106476_thumb.jpg

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Couldn't agree more about CLL and BQI.

 

Simple really, CLL WILL be pumping bitumen in 8 Months. CLL has conventional oil, Natgas and a refinery in addition to the oil sands. Management seems straight up and capable.

 

BQI MIGHT be pumping bitumen in 8 Years. BQI management, financing arrangements, permiting future are all yet to be proven, IMO.

 

CLL is the value play all the way, IMO. But waiting for the market to recognize that is painful.

 

Meanwhile, BQI is a great trading stock.

 

$100 into $30,000 in 2 Years

 

The AMBulls auto candlestick reading gizmo went onto a buy signal on BQI today.

 

Good luck in your trading!

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