Sinclair Says; Charge!

[ThorAss]

BAA*BAA

 

Excellent post there before but I didn't understand your short recent one. The bit about short and long. Can you rephrase what you mean there. I can't tell if you're saying up or down.

[Guest BAA*BAA]

I've said enough here ... I'm moving my comments/posts to the four new threads I started ...

 

1. Gold fundamentals - http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=11&t=114

2. Gold technicals - http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=11&t=113

3. Junior Miner technicals - http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=11&t=115

4. Senior Miner technicals - http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=11&t=117

 

See you there (I hope).

Cheers

BAA*BAA

[ThorAss]

Okay!

 

Vesselin,

 

I'm interested in that chart you put up on CEF. Where did that come from?

[Yoshaviah]

It is my opinion that the charts should be avoided in favor of the fundamentals. I'm long and I'm staying long - period.

 

". . . HOWE/BOLSER REPORT STUNS GOLD/INVESTMENT WORLD!!!!!

 

This morning I received a phone call from a London based gold producer CEO. Few come more highly regarded than this gold pro. I had not spoken to him for many months, so the call was a pleasant surprise. He told me he read the Howe, Bolser report (Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate) and remarked it was absolutely "stunning." He was sending it all over London - to major investors, the press, gold community, etc. I could almost see the big smile on his face. Then, he went on to say that he had just returned from Zurich and (of all things) GATA was the talk of the gold world in Switzerland. "That is all anyone wanted to talk about," were his exact words.

 

After falling off my chair and picking myself up, this email came in: . . ." - Midas

 

Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate

[Takachi]

I watch CEF late in the day because it seems to be something of an indicator of overnight activity. On those days preceeding POG getting bashed pre open it seems to drop with the miners. On days preceeding a normal or unbashed open it seems to hold up even if the miners are getting sell pressure. That is a totally unscientific "feel" kind of observation, but it has helped me avoid some nasty bashings.

[Guest]

BAA, I am very much opposed against any kind of subscription-based financial services. As long as I can help it, my analysis will remain free. If it is good, trading it would make me enough money and I won't need the subscription money anyway. If it is bad, it's not worth selling anyway.

 

I do TA of the POG too, of course. One problem there is that the only symbol for it available to me on StockCharts is $GOLD - and it doesn't have volume, which prevents many of the technical indicators from working. My current conclusion (using mostly trendlines, RSI, etc.) is that the POG will go about as high as the downsloping trendline accross the highs from May - i.e., to around 325-326. Maybe slightly more, because RSI is still far from overbought. But I don't see 330 exceeded this time. Maybe the next year.

 

As for the POG leading the stocks - that's not always true. In fact, most of the time the opposite is true. Remember, the insiders have better insight than us regarding where the POG is likely to go - and, since the gold stocks provide leverage to the POG, they trade them, in order to get more bang for the buck; so movements in the stocks of the unhedged gold mines tend to precede the corresponding movements in the POG. Not always, of course.

 

Take a look at the following chart, for instance; you'll see how $HUI has lead the movement (up or down) of $GOLD on the price relative indicator:

 

 

(Watch what happens with the POG once the price relative indicator crosses its 20-day EMA. With this choice of dependency - i.e., $GOLD relative to $HUI instead of the other way around - the dependency is opposite. That is, a cross below the EMA precedes a rise of POG and a cross above it precedes a fall.)

 

I used to have a public chartlist at StockCharts, yes. However, the moron who owns the site cancelled unfairly my subscription (without even refunding my money) after I asked about an undocumented indicator there in a public forum. Since then, I've been determined to "get my money's worth" from the site anyway - which is why, although I am no longer a paying user there, I have learned how to get things that normally only paid subscribers are allowed to get - like intra-day charts, more than 2 indicators per chart, and various other things (including things that even paid subscribers cannot normally get). One of the things I cannot do, though, is have "live" charts with annotations (and, as a consequence, a public chartlist) - because it involves saving some data on their server and I need an account for that. Not that I cannot obtain access to one, of course - but that already would be illegal and I don't do such things as a matter of principle. So, I use only what the site offers publicly for free - although it might not be public knowledge that this stuff is available publicly for free in every case.

 

Regarding Elliott Wave analysis - I do use it occasionally but am not very confident with it and do not rely on it exclusively. IMO, it is best suited for explaining what has already happened - not for what will happen. On every chart there are several alternative wave counts (usually at least 2) - and it is not always clear which is the right one until too late. That said, I've also seen expert Elliotticians predict a turn in an index with the exactness of 10 points and half an hour - and do so more than two months in advance. So, there obviously is something in this technique; I keep learning.

 

I do not own any physical investment-grade gold (e.g., coins and bars) myself - because it is illegal in my country of residence and because I don't break laws (no matter how stupid) as a matter of principle. I own a bit of CEF (but not much, because it has too much premium to gold for my taste) and I own BGO, CALVF, CDE, DROOY, GFI, GG, GLG, HMY, KGC, RGLD when they are above their 50-dmas (I sell them if they drop below and buy them back then they rise above).

 

Pheeew, did that answer all the questions?

 

Thor you can get the current premium of CEF from this site every day and can plot it yourself. Regarding where that chart came from - contact me privately please, although you might not like the answer...

 

Regards,

Vesselin