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Monthly Digger - July 2006


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Been waiting for Silver to confirm. Probably hit $13 this week and then we hit the skids. This is one psycho market. It feels like we need one more push down.

 

Trader:

 

I don't have a lot of faith in those 7 cent P&F's that you've been following.

 

I can't fully replicate the parameters that your chart guy uses, but I did my own P&F.

 

There are a significant number of resistance levels en route to $13.00.

 

On the daily candlestick for silver, there's a big incomplete impulse down followed by an overlapping corrective rally. I think the first 3 waves down are 1-2-3 and the current correction is wave 4 complted and we've seen 1 and 2 of 5. We should impulse down from here in 3 of 5 immediately. We CAN'T overlap $11.96 for this count to be correct.

 

If we overlap, $13.00 is probable

 

I also drew uptrending channel lines on the candlestick. I think it would take much longer than a week to hit $13.00. It would likely have to be a complex series of 3 abc's known as a WXY.

 

$13.02 is a 61.8% retracement of the May/June decline.

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Been waiting for Silver to confirm. Probably hit $13 this week and then we hit the skids. This is one psycho market. It feels like we need one more push down.

 

Trader:

 

I don't have a lot of faith in those 7 cent P&F's that you've been following.

 

I can't fully replicate the parameters that your chart guy uses, but I did my own P&F.

 

There are a significant number of resistance levels en route to $13.00.

 

On the daily candlestick for silver, there's a big incomplete impulse down followed by an overlapping corrective rally. I think the first 3 waves down are 1-2-3 and the current correction is wave 4 complted and we've seen 1 and 2 of 5. We should impulse down from here in 3 of 5 immediately. We CAN'T overlap $11.96 for this count to be correct.

 

If we overlap, $13.00 is probable

 

I also drew uptrending channel lines on the candlestick. I think it would take much longer than a week to hit $13.00. It would likely have to be a complex series of 3 abc's known as a WXY.

 

$13.02 is a 61.8% retracement of the May/June decline.

 

 

Bear that was tongue in cheek. Obviously there is strong resistance 11.80 then 12.30 in Silver. A push up the next couple of trading days would not surprise me but I would not chase rallies higher from here.

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I think that it's hard to say that the miners really trade with the broads:

 

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?...;NDX,$indu

 

 

 

That is one awesome telling chart which puts things into perspective.

 

It seems as if GG and PMPIX perfromed about the same until GG started to outpace around the time of the March lows. Could it have something to do with the Silver components in the indices?

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How are things up North? I think the class of the bunch are NG SLW GG and TRE. Sinclair is in line to buy more very shortly. I like that. ;)

 

Sorry my replies are intermittent - been traveling more than usual this year.

 

I think you're right TFH - those are very good investments and will do well.

 

Finally bought some EPM.TO. Also some more uranium / oil sands / natural gas.

 

Had some fun with the HUI chart.

 

gooberout :)

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Speaking of EPM, chat from various StockHouse message boards....

 

Last week Swedish miner Lundin announced that they were in talks with 2 companies for possible buy buyout/merger.

 

EPM and EZM fit the profile- European based, less than $1B market cap, copper plays.

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July 31 (Reuters) - Prudential Equity Group has upgraded Phelps Dodge Corp. (PD) to "overweight" from "underweight" and raised its price target on the copper miner's stock to $110 from $60.

 

Business risks and financial dilution from Phelps Dodge's proposed merger with Inco Ltd. (N) will be less now as Inco failed in its own bid to acquire Falconbridge Ltd., Prudential said in a research note.

 

It said Phelps Dodge shares will likely rebound if it does not succeed in buying Inco as investors do not like goodwill, new shares, or added debt.

 

Mid-summer copper markets appear better than expected with shortfalls from several more copper mines and without inventory buildups, the brokerage also said. (Reporting by Dilipp S. Nag and Madhubanti Routh in Bangalore)

 

PD up 8%

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